ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen
Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Peter on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?09:16 - Their investment philosophy14:33 - A skepticism about equities?17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets28:20 - Where lies the most risk?30:25 - Opportunities...
28 Helmi 20241h 5min
SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas
Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown05:35 - Industry performance update07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?14:24 - The state of the industry18:17 - Is trend following flopping?27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios36:15 - Pick your battles49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?01:04:44 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...
24 Helmi 20241h 6min
OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in what they call “smart pyramiding” in and out of positions. Finally, we touch on dynamic position sizing.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Richard on LinkedInFollow Bowmoor Capital.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot05:19 - How did they get into investing?09:43 - Why trend following?13:55 - Solving the market puzzle15:36 - How they designed their strategy?18:46 - The reason for their market selection24:18 - Why exactly 21 markets?31:13 - How did they design their system?39:47 - Why they don't trade hundreds of markets42:08 - What timeframes and models do they work...
21 Helmi 20241h 6min
SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan
Come along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?02:33 - What will 2024 bring for trend following?07:11 - Inflation? Look to the Tooth Fairy08:33 - Industry performance update11:34 - Q1, Mark: Should trend followers size long and short positions the same?17:20 - Outperforming the benchmarks36:39 - The "secrets" of achieving great performance44:42 - Is bigger always better?52:43 - The importance of system diversification01:03:45 - Working out the optimal parameters01:08:14 - Crazy times in the cocoa market01:09:41 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I
18 Helmi 20241h 12min
GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff
Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Kiril's work on 13D.Episode TimeStamps: 02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff05:21 - Are we heading back to "normal"?11:17 - Will China become an inflationary force?14:30 - Is China still investable?17:05 - A Chinese confidence crisis18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?27:57 - The
14 Helmi 20241h 3min
SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer
Andrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the investment industry is slow at adapting to change, whether democracy is on its last legs and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:53 - A dark time04:24 - Industry performance update10:57 - Should we replace bonds with managed futures? (or vice versa)21:59 - What does it take to change investors minds?33:26 - No one can erase 2022, and that is important35:01 - A misleading narrative in the managed futures space38:30 - Long or short term - who performed the best?43:39 - Are stocks becoming less relevant?53:22 - An update on the ETF space56:25 - An existential crisis within equity hedge funds58:55 - Capitalism and the political discourse01:03:58 - Is democracy on its last legs?01:06:32 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here...
11 Helmi 20241h 8min
GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald
Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Frances on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?20:43 - Where are the weak spots?23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?59:35 - Advice
7 Helmi 20241h 2min
SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:09 - What has caught our interest recently?02:27 - Industry performance update06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat12:14 - The drivers of price17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period22:48 - Managers have different personalities29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance?32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis39:32 - More markets = better returns?44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles?54:34 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following...
3 Helmi 202456min
