GM34: When Geopolitics meets Global Macro ft. Jacob Shapiro & Roger Hirst
Today we are joined by Jacob Shapiro and Roger Hirst. Jacob is the Geopolitics Editor at financial media company Lykeion, co-author of a monthly research publication focused on the converging worlds of Geopolitics and Macro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, and Founder and Chief Strategist of the business and political risk consulting firm Perch Perspectives. Roger is the Macro Editor at financial media company Lykeion and the Managing Editor of Real Vision Creative Studios. Together they provide a powerhouse of insights into the machinations of geopolitics and macroeconomics. Key in this conversation are Jacob’s and Roger’s insights into China and whether China has the capacity to influence global growth going forward. In our conversation we explore the possibility and probability of deglobalization and what that might mean. In addition Roger and Jacob turn the spotlight on Latin America and the potential it holds given the current geopolitical and macroeconomic constraints the world is facing. Join us in this deep dive into what lies behind and beneath these pressing issues.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Roger on Twitter.Follow Jacob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:42 - Introduction to Shapiro & Hirst 09:22 - Where lies the uncertainty? 11:01 - The ultimate impact on markets 15:32 -...
15 Helmi 20231h 13min
TTU131: How CTAs manage their Cash ft. Mike Kastner, Principle & Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management
Today, we are joined by Mike Kastner, Principle and Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management, for a conversation on how they use fixed income instruments to manage the cash of many CTA portfolios. We discuss how managers have evolved in terms of the way they manage cash, how Halyard Asset Management construct a portfolio from a liquidity point of view and the current state of liquidity, how they approach credit rating and why they avoid buying paper from certain banks. We also unpack what they think the sweet spot for foreign exchange hedging is and how they approach risk management, why Kastner does not believe we are approaching a recession and that there is a likely chance of a significant fall in the long bond price, as well as what Kastner believes will happen in the housing market and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Halyard Asset Management.Episode Timestamps:02:40 - Introduction to Halyard Asset Management 04:12 - History of Cash Management 07:16 - What happened with money market funds? 09:34 - Has the Cash Management space changed? 11:02 - Cash Management philosophy 12:23 - A liquid portfolio 17:39 - Drawing the safety line 19:25 - Considering ESGs 21:11 - Managing cash in different currencies 22:41 - Balancing the mandates 23:52 - Managing risk...
13 Helmi 202347min
SI130: Trend Following in the Age of Disconnect ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us at the end of another Fed driven week. We discuss the pros and cons of being a long term trend follower compared to a short term trend follower in terms of performance and Sharpe Ratio, and why you would want to apply the same rules to long and short sided trades, how to understand long and short term volatility, the advantages of being a systematic manager and the limits to how much AUM a manager can handle, how Rzepczynski will be focusing on change point detection in his next endevour and why it is important as a trend follower to think in terms of radical uncertainty or disequilibriums and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:03:20 - What happened this week?11:01 - Individual Sharpe vs. portfolio Sharpe18:59 - Industry performance update19:56 - Q1, Pete: Same rules for longs and shorts - why?32:25 - Q1 Follow-up: Change position right away or wait for first new trade entry?36:09 - Q2, Callum: Question regarding TTU series with Ryan O'Grady40:57 - Q3, Tim: Questions regarding link between Performance and AUM50:21 - The problem with flat fees55:06 - The idea of change point detection01:00:18 - The age of disconnect01:11:01 - The impact of disruptors01:17:04 - Final thoughtsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here
12 Helmi 20231h 19min
TTU130: Trend Following Solutions ft. Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital
Today, we are joined by Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital, for a conversation on their systematic investment process, with a primary focus on research. We discuss why bias is a core element of Aspect Capitals investment philosophy, the essence of trend and why trend strategies work, as well as how they work together with their investors to create the most optimal portfolio for them. We also explore Lueck's analogy of trend as "medicine" and why it is important to give the medicine time to do its work. We continue with topics such as how trend following as a strategy has evolved over time and how they feel about the newest CTA replication products, their reasoning for being cautious about using machine learning and, why they chose not to dwell too much on fees, how they guide their clients when it comes to return expectations and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Aspect CapitalEpisode Timestamps:02:57 - Introduction to Aspect Capital 06:54 - Their Investment Philosophy 09:56 - Why does trend strategies work? 13:12 - A less uncertain period 15:44 - Too concerned about the sharpe? 20:38 - Which trends are most popular? 23:01 - Costumization - is there a limit? 28:58 - Staying diversified and improving models 34:33 - The research process 37:29 - A change in models?...
10 Helmi 20231h 5min
GM33: Drilling into the Oil Market ft. Rory Johnston
Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his reflections on diverse market responses to geopolitical events around the world. Is there going to be a big energy demand from China going forward? What is it going to take to stabilize oil prices? How does inflation factor in? Join us on this fascinating exploration of the role oil plays, and the variables that can change the trajectory of the energy market.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Rory on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:31 - Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context07:15 - Are people over-fixated on data?09:04 - Is Geopolitical analysis useless?16:43 - Making assumptions19:38 - The challenges with data28:36 - Indicators of volatility32:26 - Quantifying the fundamental value37:02 - Having an edge in oil45:27 - Understanding the CRT Report49:17 - Oil price - a play on the...
8 Helmi 20231h 6min
TTU129: Trend Following Nordic Style ft. Svante Bergström, CEO & Founding Partner of LYNX Asset Management
Today, we are joined by Svante Bergström, Founding Partner and CEO of Lynx Asset Management, for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their trading strategy, through the use of a multi-strat approach. We discuss why they believe trend following will continue to work for the next hundred years and how they ensure a good balance between achieving a high Sharpe while maintaining the trend following profile, what they have learned from 2022 and how they used diversifying models and machine learning to profit in 2022, their process of finding new models and replacing the ones that do not work and why they are sceptical about the returns from CTA replication. We also discuss the number of markets they prefer to trade, how they manage risk and what you should pay attention to when evaluating managers, their approach to capacity and fees and their process of finding new talent in the industry, how they implement ESGs in their work and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about LYNXEpisode Timestamps:02:18 - Introduction to LYNX 04:11 - How did they settle on trend following? 09:08 - A painful ride? 11:09 - Too focused on sharpe? 14:04 - What stood out in 2022? 16:17 - The dual mandate 18:10 - The benefits of diversifying strategies 20:08 - Why machine learning? 24:31 - The flipside of diversifying...
6 Helmi 20231h 7min
SI229: Managed Futures - The Ultimate Diversification Tool? ft. Andrew Beer
Today, Andrew Beer returns to the podcast for a conversation on Trend Following & Managed Futures more broadly, where we reflect on what happened in the first month of 2023 and the outlook for rest of the year. We also discuss why many investors started to panic in the last half of 2022 and why Managed Futures is such a powerful "companion" strategy, the recent change of sentiment to stocks and bonds and why we should sometimes just trust the evidence. We round things off with a deep dive into various ways to achieve optimal diversification and the value of trend following, why it is important to be tactical and put aside the idea of buying the dip, how narrative plays such a big role in the trend following space and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:11 - Reflecting on the month of January06:36 - Performance of trend following this year so far14:43 - Industry performance update15:43 - Managed futures - the ultimate diversifier?21:24 - Will stocks and bonds continue to move in tandem?25:46 - Predictable diversification benefits29:28 - The advantages of managers41:40 - Why should managed futures work?48:18 - Buy the dip?54:31 - Sticking to the data01:01:13 - Gunslingers in the ETF space01:05:59 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready......
5 Helmi 20231h 7min
TTU128: Trend Following for Life ft. Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management
Today, we are joined by Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management, for a conversation on how and why they have continued to focus on Trend Following as their core investment strategy. We discuss the challenges of improving upon trend following and if it's possible to deliver it with a high Sharpe Ratio, what differentiates DUNN Capital from other trend followers and how they use research to stay well prepared. We also dig into their approach to trading futures and determining trends and where they see the weaknesses of trend following strategies, why they choose to look at the overall portfolio when managing the risk and why they think portfolio replication can be problematic. We also discuss how they manage risk and why they prefer to reside in the medium to long term when it comes to trend following, how they approach capacity and fees and why they choose to trade using a human touch rather than automated execution, what returns are achievable from trend following and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about DUNN Capital ManagementEpisode Timestamps:02:31 - Introduction to DUNN Capital Management 05:02 - Why Trend Following? 07:35 - What differentiates DUNN Capital Management? 12:06 - Hitting the right balance 14:34 - Reflecting on the performance in 2022 18:43 - The speed of systems 22:28 - Their research process 25:36 - Trading...
3 Helmi 20231h 9min
