TTU72: Adding Value to Your System ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 2of2

In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:42 - What has caught our attention recently?05:04 - Draghi's vision for Europe08:09 - Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation14:02 - Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds19:58 - The big macro picture27:33 - Is monetary policy still loose?29:11 - Industry performance update (Finally!)34:11 - The carry unwind41:20 - Are people underestimating trend following?44:51 - Are markets becoming less efficient?48:30 - Why higher volatility funds may be good for your...

14 Syys 20241h 5min

Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm15:15 - The new area of tightness18:27 - It is all about labour cost23:46 - The deflationary power of technology26:46 - The outlook of the labour market32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of...

11 Syys 202458min

Rob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Trump to create a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, how ETFs really work and what they can bring to your portfolio, and whether or not buying one of the new CTA replication products is really the same as buying the underlying CTA index based on a recent paper from Transtrend.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:18 - What has caught our attention recently?02:59 - How it feels to let your system run without you during holidays?10:45 - Industry performance update14:30 - Q1, Luis: What are your thoughts on Macro Momentum for retail traders?21:00 - Q2, Roman: How to best target portfolio volatility24:24 - Q3, Joshua: Which risk manament approach is best ATRs vs actual % of capital31:22 - Would a Bitcoin strategic reserve be a good idea?39:05 - A deep dive into ETFs48:52 - An example of a worst case scenario ETF53:13 - Can't we just buy a CTA...

7 Syys 20241h 14min

Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Michael on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities09:17 - Do different types of liquidity have different effects?12:17 - The last 15 years from a...

4 Syys 20241h 2min

As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:49 - What has been on our radar recently?04:17 - Industry performance update08:07 - Just another August?12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space?14:54 - Has replication become obsolete?25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation31:56 - Staying in sync35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies43:42 - A world premiere!51:05 - An index madness53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things56:02 - How the new index worksCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

1 Syys 20241h

Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?07:29 - Signs of weakness?09:31 - The key indicators of weakness12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?15:26 - Assessing the savings rate17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?22:00 - Challenges in the banking system24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind...

28 Elo 20241h 1min

Together with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?04:43 - What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence?11:48 - Industry performance update18:24 - The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting33:42 - Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data36:31 - How collective trader behaviour influences price movement48:03 - How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement52:47 - Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolioCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have...

24 Elo 20241h 3min

In this episode we welcome back Mark Mills, author of The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark was a guest on the show one year ago and many of the predictions he made then have come true. We revisit his view that simultaneous improvements in information, materials and machine technologies are about to unleash an economic boom. He explains the surge in power consumption related to AI and why this should not serve as a brake on its adoption if we employ sensible energy policies. He also discusses why mining will continue to expand and how manufacturing across all industries is evolving to be more like a service. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Mark on Twitter and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:21 - Introduction to Mark Mills09:05 - What causes revolutions?12:27 - How Artificial Intelligence will impact the energy sector22:02 - Should we be worried about the energy consumption of AI?29:10 - Are renewables and recycling a viable solution?37:37 - Putting Mills in the shoes of a mining...

21 Elo 20241h