SI29: Can Value Investing be applied to Gold? and Trend Following as a forecasting tool ft. Jesse Felder

In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast. Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold. We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him? Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:50 – Weekly review of performance

05:20 – Jesse reviews his background/influences

08:00 – Jesse describes his process

12:45 – Question from Francois: Would Jesse discuss his view we’re in/entering a bear market?

19:30 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on passive indexing

25:40 – Niels asks how float reduction impacts passive investing

28:00 – Jerry asks if ZIRP impacts valuation-based investing

30:10 – Niels asks Jesse how a transition to an inflationary environment will impact investing

34:40 – Moritz asks if/how Jesse applies the value approach to all asset classes

36:50 – Moritz asks if Jesse trades the VIX or otherwise hedges tails

Book reference: The Tao of Capital by Spitznagel

40:10 – Jerry asks Jesse’s thoughts on TF as a tool benefitting diversification

42:00 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on the market not broadly recognizing the evidence supporting Trend Following

47:20 – Jerry/Jesse/Niels discuss forecasting and TF

50:00 – Question from George: Why is knowing what’s happening fundamentally better than just responding to price (i.e. trend following)?

56:20 – Niels asks Jesse’s view on Tesla

01:00:20 – Moritz asks how Jesse spends a typical day

01:01:30 – Niels asks what Jesse is reading now

01:03:20 – Moritz asks about Jesse’s interests/hobbies

01:04:40 – Niels asks about following Buffett/Munger and shifts in markets today

01:08:45 – Niels asks if Jesse applies analog analysis to markets

01:11:50 – Niels asks Jesse’s recommendations on things to read/listen to to learn about investing

01:14:00 – Benchmark performance update

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