SI48: The state of the Bond market and do Institutions affect CTA performance

SI48: The state of the Bond market and do Institutions affect CTA performance

This week, we discuss the current state of the Bond market, how the larger, commercial institutions affect overall CTA Trend Following performance, how to deal with the fluctuations in currencies when performing backtests, and we also give our thoughts on various Trading exit strategies. Questions answered this week include: does the majority of CTAs get out of their equity positions when the S&P500 falls below its 200-day moving average? Should you avoid trading markets that perform badly in backtests? Can a system that is working too perfectly be a bad sign? What are the implications for trading every market in the same way? What is the benchmark Sharpe Ratio for Trend Following strategies? Is there a limit to portfolio diversification?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:45 – Macro recap from Niels

03:25 – Weekly review of performance

12:20 – Top tweets

34:40 – Question 1, Sam: What is the benchmark TF Sharpe ratio?

43:00 – Question 2, Sam: Can there be too much diversification?

53:15 – Question 3, Walter: Please discuss how you deal with foreign currency denominated futures.

58:10 – Question 4, Walter: Since most stocks don’t beat the index or T-bills, shouldn’t shorting be easy (versus the conventional wisdom shorting is hard)?

01:03:00 – Questions 5 & 6, Jeff: What are the risks of using larger (vs smaller) ATR multiples for exits? What kind of exits does DUNN use?

01:08:40 – Benchmark performance update

01:09:40 – Live event update...

Jaksot(860)

TTU76: Why He Still Trades His Own Money ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 2of2

TTU76: Why He Still Trades His Own Money ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 2of2

In the second part of our conversation with Barnaby Cardwell, we dive into the details of his program, how he built his company, and what he thinks it takes to be a good manager of a trading firm.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What indicators Barnaby considers more reliable.How he gets into a trade.How important is the position sizing?How much AUM his model can handle.Risk management: how he defines risk and what he does to mitigate it.What he has learned from drawdowns.What keeps Barnaby awake at night.Trading spread between markets and the research his firm is doing into that space.Why he focuses on the managed-account route.How he stands out from the crowd to attract investors.About “key-man” risk.What potential investors don’t ask in their due diligence questions.What it takes to be a great trader.What books have inspired him in trading and life.What his biggest failure is so far.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:People that have inspired Barnaby include James Harris Simons, QIM, and the book Trading in the Zone.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Barnaby Cardwell on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pub/barnaby-cardwell/19/576/848"...

5 Maalis 201552min

TTU75: Competing in the Short Term Space ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 1of2

TTU75: Competing in the Short Term Space ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 1of2

Our next guest is a fund manager in the short-term space, and thus is distinct from many of the guests on this podcast. He discusses how he got into the financial markets from a young age, and why he decided to trade in the short term space in order to separate himself from the competition. Listen in for details into his program and how he started his hedge fund.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Barnaby grew up and what got him interested in the financial markets.Why he left being a broker and went in to a more systematic approach.How he met his future business partner.How they started his fund in late 2008.What it was about the Market Wizards books that captured his imagination.What he does to compete outside of trading.His first mentor and what he taught Barnaby.Why he decided to go short term.How automation has changed his industry.How he gets through the hard times in the market.An overview of the program that his company runs.How he set up his company and attracted investors.The challenges that let to auto-execution of trades.How he builds a strong culture in an organization.How he wants people to look at his track record.Why he uses time-based stops.The details of the short term models he uses.How he creates a strategy.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about Market Wizards and Jack Schwager.Check out information on Toby Crabel and his book.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and...

2 Maalis 201557min

TTU74: 2015 Predictions for Currencies, Gold, Oil and More ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology – 2of2

TTU74: 2015 Predictions for Currencies, Gold, Oil and More ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology – 2of2

In this second episode with Mahendra, he dives into his predictions for 2015 and the next few years, detailing his thoughts on markets from currencies, gold and silver to oil and real estate markets. He discusses how he sees key geo-political events resolving or worsening in the years to come. You may gain advice and insight that will change how you trade and what you trade in the financial markets!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The drastic rise in volatility Mahendra is expecting for this year and next.What he thinks about where Oil is going to go.What happens when his predictions come true very quickly.His predictions and success with the gold market and the 52-year era for gold.What he thinks about Copper and Silver.What he sees for the major currencies going forward.How Mahendra sees the future of the European Union and their currency.What he predicts that does not pertain to the financial markets.Why he stopped predicting events that were not in the financial market.What he thinks about the real estate markets for the coming years.The problems he sees coming from 2017 onwards.What he predicts for the banking stocks in 2015.How nature influences humans.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mahendra Sharma on Linkedin.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my...

26 Helmi 20151h 7min

TTU73: He sees Dow Jones going to 32,000 ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology – 1of2

TTU73: He sees Dow Jones going to 32,000 ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology – 1of2

Welcome to an episode of Top Trader’s Unplugged unlike any other. We take a break from interviews with hedge fund managers and invite you into the fascinating world of financial astrology. Mahendra Sharma dedicates his astrology and predictions work exclusively on the financial markets, and has had an astonishing accuracy of predicting market events. Learn about his story, including his upbringing without electricity in his home, on this episode.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Mahendra is completely different than any of the other guests that have been on the podcast.How he got into predicting the financial markets.The story of his astrologer grandfather who lost his eyesight.How he came out with his first predictions at the age of 20.How he made a fortune in technology stocks based on his own predictions.The way he wrote his first book that came out in South Africa.How he grew up in a home without electricity.Why he looks at planetary movement, and human behavior patterns.Why he predicts that the DOW will go to 32,000.Why he believe in a 30 year cycle.What he predicts for interest rates in the next few years.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mahendra Sharma on Linkedin.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt...

21 Helmi 20151h 12min

TTU72: Adding Value to Your System ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 2of2

TTU72: Adding Value to Your System ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 2of2

In the second part of our talk with Mike Shell, we delve into the specifics of his program and why most of his clients have 100% of their investments with his firm. He discusses backtesting, risk management, and the differences between purely systematic systems and systems with a discretionary element. Listen in for an inside look at this fascinating firm.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How people should look at Mike’s 10 year track record and how his models have evolved over that time.How much of the strategy is machine run and how much is human run.What he does when he backtest a system.How he started out as a chartist in the 1990s.What is it that he can’t systematize.The difference between a trader that is purely systematic and one that has a discretionary element, however small.How his investors use his program.What his approach to risk management is and how it plays out with his program.Why he doesn’t take on much short exposure.What’s the biggest challenge with his business right now.How to expand the customer base to investment advisors.What books Mike would recommend.What he’d do differently if he had to start all over today.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this EpisodeTechnical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John MurphyMarket Wizards by Jack SchwagerTrend Following by Michael CovelFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a...

12 Helmi 20151h 11min

TTU71: Why You Don’t Want Symmetry in Investing ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 1of2

TTU71: Why You Don’t Want Symmetry in Investing ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 1of2

Most trend following firms have clients that invest somewhere between 2 and 20% of their portfolio with that firm, but Mike Shell’s firm is different. His strategy is tailored to a specific customer, and almost all of his clients have their entire investment portfolios with his firm. We dive into the specifics of Shell Capital Management in this episode, and how Mike grew up in the southern United States with a military background to become the owner of his own firm.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The ways that Mike’s firm is different from other firms.His upbringing in Tennessee.How he started Shell Capital in 2004.The books that influenced him in his trend following education.What his experience was in the brokerage world.Why he left the brokerage world and what gave him the courage to become an entrepreneur.His experience in the military and law enforcement.What he does when he’s not trading.Why symmetry is the last thing he wants when it comes to investing.How his asymmetry term came about.Why he relishes uncertainty.How he structures his firm to compete in his industry.How the firm plans to grow and what they outsource.The way that people should interpret his track record.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:How to Make Money in StocksMarket WizardsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow...

9 Helmi 20151h 10min

TTU70: Market Intervention & The Effect on Trend Following ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group

TTU70: Market Intervention & The Effect on Trend Following ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group

In this year-end review, Marc Malek explains why intervention in the markets affects trend following, but also why trend following strategies are not long volatility strategies. He discusses 2014 from the point of view of his firm, how his program did, and why he is excited about 2015.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How 2014 treated Conquest Capital.How volatility shows itself in a market like oil.What strategies performed well and what markets contributed to their success.How he prepares himself for extreme volatility and how he dealt with the Swiss Franc move.What intervention does to the markets.How his firm would plan for our react to a big market change such as the break up of the Euro overnight.Why people use correlation in the wrong way.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Marc Malek on this podcast here and here.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Marc Malek on Linkedin.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together...

5 Helmi 201536min

TTU69: Staying Agnostic in Your Allocation ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital

TTU69: Staying Agnostic in Your Allocation ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital

This year in review covers how Aspect Capital came out of 2014 with their best year ever as a company, and what they learned from the year. Martin Lueck discusses the events that made 2014 a roller coaster ride, as well as the importance of always staying agnostic in your allocation to different sectors.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why 2014 was a roller coaster ride for Aspect Capital.How 2014 was the best year ever on record for Martin’s firm.Why CTAs spend most of the time being in a certain level of drawdown and how they have to be psychologically prepared for that.What markets didn’t perform for his firm.How Martin reacted to the Swiss Franc move that happened recently.How conversations with investors changed over the year.Why educating investors is important.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Hear more of Martin Lueck in these 2 hour-long conversations with him on our podcast here and here.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Aspect Capital on Linkedin.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...

4 Helmi 201535min

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