SI75: Morgan Housel on history being a bad guide for the future

SI75: Morgan Housel on history being a bad guide for the future

On today’s show, we discuss Morgan Housel’s recent article on history & historians generally being a bad guide for the future, the popularity of negative predictions, social media as a gauge for current market conditions, the limits of trading indexes versus diversified individual stocks, why following price may be more important than just committing to a bullish or bearish position, and Meb Faber’s recent interview with Tim Hayes, who talked about the dangers of non-price-based indicators.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:12 – Macro recap from Niels

02:59 – Weekly review of performance

05:23 – Top Tweets

34:12 – Michael; Question 1: Would avoiding all S&P500 stocks improve a Trend Following system?

36:57 – Chris; Question 2: Can you explain the term ‘Vol Targeting’?

43:40 – Adrian: Question 3: What recent client requests have you refused to accommodate, when it comes to altering either your strategies, or your business?

53:31 – Francois; Comment related to recent episodes where we discussed Trend Following on equities

57:24 – Benchmark performance update

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

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GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg

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SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne

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GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley

GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley

The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the...

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SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan

Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalis...

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GM103: Why Optimism Could Be the Most Contrarian Trade ft. Pippa Malmgren

GM103: Why Optimism Could Be the Most Contrarian Trade ft. Pippa Malmgren

While much of the world is focused on geopolitical conflict, inflation and rising global tensions, Pippa Malmgren argues that a very different future may already be taking shape. Joining Niels Kaastru...

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SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski

SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical s...

27 Kesä 1h 8min

IL50: Why Central Banks Are Losing Control of Inflation ft. Manoj Pradhan

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Manoj Pradhan returns to Top Traders Unplugged to explain why the forces that kept inflation and interest rates low for decades are now reversing. Drawing on themes from The Great Demographic Reversal...

24 Kesä 1h 1min

SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver

SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver

Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether i...

20 Kesä 1h 12min

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