BO88: When To Modify Your System...the $64,000 Question

Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to chart a market running on more than just momentum. Beneath the surface: a structural liquidity engine, political incentives aligned with asset reflation, and a surge in non-correlated flows reshaping risk itself. As institutions scramble to catch up and volatility begins to rise with price, Cem draws on lessons from the late 90s to explain why the real story is not about valuation - but positioning. From AI’s misunderstood impact to the growing role of options, gold, and crypto, this is a portrait of a regime defined not by fundamentals, but by reflex and constraint.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alan on XEpisode TimeStamps: 00:23 - What has been on our radar recently?02:00 - Industry performance update03:07 - Are current valuations a sign of a bubble?12:13 - The importance of reflexivity18:59 - The move towards non correlation is upon us22:55 - What is driving up asset prices?26:34 - When will the supply/demand imbalance normalize?31:56 - Reaching an uncontrollable situation35:47 - What are markets showing us about options?39:38 - Precious metals is the place to be42:26 - Is AI actually the game changer that we all expect it to be?52:07 - Will better technology = better performance?56:03 - A timeline for possible

4 Loka 1h 5min

China’s trade surplus with the US remains stubbornly large, but its appetite for Treasuries is fading. So where are the dollars going, and what does that say about the country’s evolving financial strategy? Kevin Coldiron welcomes back Dr. Zoe Liu for a nuanced look at how Beijing is managing external pressure, internal control, and the creeping disruption of dollar-backed stablecoins. Behind the headlines is a deeper story about surveillance, capital flight, and the boundaries of monetary sovereignty. As China builds shadow reserves and experiments with programmable money, the question isn’t just what it fears it’s what kind of system it’s trying to build instead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Zoe on Twitter and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:11 - Introduction to Zoe Liu04:15 - How U.S tariffs impact shipping costs and the deficit with China17:27 - What is China actually doing with their earned dollars?27:52 - Are FX entrusted loans reinforcing the dollar based trading system?36:07 - What are stable coins and why are China worried about them?42:31 - The second level of...

1 Loka 1h 3min

Equities are up more than 50% since the April lows, yet the world feels anything but stable. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Andrew Beer examine the widening disconnect between market behavior and the backdrop it’s unfolding against. From drone incursions over Denmark to political fragmentation and a rising tolerance for systemic risk, they explore why nothing seems to break - and what that complacency might be masking. Along the way, they unpack Bouchard’s inelastic market hypothesis, CalPERS’ pivot toward Total Portfolio thinking, and the structural trade-offs inside multi-strat hedge funds. It's a conversation about signals in the noise - and the quiet shifts that could reshape the landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?05:38 - The tension between talents11:08 - Is the popularity of certain alternative strategies just a sign of the times?22:07 - Industry performance update27:46 - Q1, Michael: Why shouldn't I sell Andrew's product when it's outperforming single managers and vise versa?30:15 - The evolution of replication strategy performance37:44 - The storytelling behind hedge fund losses41:04 - Do all markets have the ability to trend?48:57 - The rise of multi strategy hedge funds57:47 - It shouldn't work but it does, so why?01:04:27 - A reminder for Andrew's generous book offerCopyright © 2025 – CMC...

27 Syys 1h 7min

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood joins Cem Karsan at the Hood Summit in Las Vegas, for a timely conversation about the shifting edge in markets. From memories of hyperinflation in Bulgaria to unlocking tools once reserved for institutions, Vlad outlines how Robinhood is positioning retail for a different kind of market regime. Futures, short selling, 24-hour options, AI-driven trade simulation, and embedded social features aren’t just upgrades - they’re signals. With market structure evolving and a historic wealth transfer underway, this episode captures a platform staking its claim on the next generation of capital allocators - and the volatility they’ll inherit.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:27 - Introduction to Vlad Tenev05:11 - Big announcements from Robinhood09:15 - Tenev's favorite commodities12:13 - Lets talk about options!18:20 - How AI can benefit options trading21:56 - Short selling is coming to Robinhood25:44 - The path to making Robinhood more resilient28:02 - The great transfer of wealth31:17 - How Robinhood differentiates themselves from other platforms33:35 - Creating a broader army37:23 - What is Robinhood most excited for going forward?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics

24 Syys 41min

Rob Carver is back from summer break for a conversation that moves between past and present through the lens of lived experience. Starting with the anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, Rob and Niels unpack why strong performance often coexists with poor investor outcomes - and how timing, not strategy, remains the silent killer. They question the recent push into trend by asset management giants, weigh whether CTA underperformance marks a structural shift or a familiar cycle, and examine what the data can and can’t tell us when conviction fades. If there’s a theme this week, it’s simple: knowing what works is not the same as using it well.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:14 - What has been on our radar recently?12:09 - Industry performance update19:23 - Q1, John: What are your recommendations for adapting a continuous forecast-based position sizing for a cash-only portfolio?23:15 - Q2, Absolute: Is short/long symmetry optimal for a strategy in which the price of the traded instruments is measured in units (fiat currencies) that are inflated (devalued)?30:19 - Q3, Lin: Got any ideas for trading a crypto portfolio?32:04 - Why investors are losing money on 42% gain ETFs39:50 - The difference between percentage return and cash return43:24 - Debunking the persistent score card46:19 - How the world has changed for CTAsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

20 Syys 1h 2min

Richard Tomlinson joins Alan Dunne for a conversation shaped by experience, not theory. As CIO of LPPI, Richard is responsible for £27 billion in pension assets - but what stands out here is the clarity with which he navigates complexity. From the fading utility of labels like “illiquidity premium” and “hedge fund” to the trade-offs between cost, alignment, and control, this episode is about building portfolios that work in the real world - not just in a model. They explore inflation’s structural drivers, the quiet rise of fiscal dominance, and why some of the industry’s most comfortable assumptions no longer hold. It’s not about being contrarian - it’s about being clear-eyed.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Richard on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Introduction to Richard Tomlinson07:07 - What makes Tomlinson and LPPI stand out from their peers?11:52 - Who are LPPI's clients?13:26 - The investment philosophy behind LPPI's work18:06 - How LPPI's allocators work together19:05 - Getting the allocation right21:29 - Are they worried about the decline of equities?23:37 - Tomlinson perspective on global macro26:55 - Public vs private markets29:05 - Their approach to allocating domestically31:15 - How their allocation is...

17 Syys 1h 3min

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerprints of design choices: the pace of signals, how portfolios tilt, whether to add carry, and the impact of alternative markets. Along the way they connect these differences to today’s landscape, from the Fed’s looming decision to Europe’s bond jitters, from gas and power’s outsized role in recent Alternative CTA returns to the risks of crowding. It’s a clear-eyed discussion about how systematic strategies evolve - and why dispersion matters.Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:12 - What has caught our attention recently?06:44 - Industry performance update12:01 - How different can managers really be in the trend following space?22:30 - Is Andrew Beer onto something about the sharpe ratio of trend indices?24:26 - Why Katy and Alex are obsessed with return dispersion30:34 - What drives dispersion the most?32:41 - Designing a trend following benchmark35:46 - Quantifying turbulence in CTAs39:46 - The importance of simplicity as a CTA42:30...

13 Syys 55min

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a different risk: a slow-burning inflation that’s quietly taking hold. Anna breaks down why tariffs haven’t hit as expected, how AI is already reshaping the labor force, and what’s really driving service-sector price pressures. Beyond the data, the conversation turns to Fed culture, the limits of independence, and what a Trump-aligned central bank might mean in practice. Less about what’s forecast - more about what’s misunderstood.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Anna on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Anna Wong03:57 - The current state of Fed06:35 - A potential flare up in inflation16:19 - Wong's read on the labour market22:50 - Fed's inflation argument makes no sense28:59 - The outlook of the housing market31:15 - Is AI destroying the labour market?34:20 - The future direction of the Fed and the potential candidates40:10 - The Fed is losing its balance48:43 - How increasing Trump representatives could impact the Fed51:58 - How monetary policy will unfold going forward54:43 - How we achieve a healthy level...

10 Syys 1h 4min