TTU130: Trend Following Solutions ft. Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital

Today guest host Chris Solarz continues his conversation with Chris Cole, the Founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. Our guests today go over the changing markets and why despite trend following’s recent underperformance, their clients still look to it as protection for their portfolio. They will also continue their discussion on the intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing, as well as the relationship between corporate debt and GDP and its long term trends.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the recent quantitative easing could be moving into quantitative tightening, and what that means for investorsThe intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easingHow opportunities in the markets are changing managers behaviorWhy Matthew is happy with the current market environmentWhich asset classes currently offer a cheap volatilityWhat the recent huge spikes in VIX meant for long vol and short vol tradersWho in the investing space is looking for the protection of hedging for their portfolioWhy trend following is still successful despite it’s recent difficulties in the marketThe meaning of the recent change of Growth outperforming Value-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital ManagementLearn more about...

27 Maalis 201929min

On today’s show, we give our thoughts on ‘Evidence-Based Investing’, David Harding’s latest comments on Trend Following, how much is too much ‘Open Risk’, as well as answering: what are some of the ‘Trend Commandments’? Also, we discuss whether it’s safe or not to buy after a big upside price break or sell after a big gap down, whether Volatility should be ‘targeted’ in your portfolio, and if a system can be designed handle ‘parabolic moves’ better.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:00 – Weekly review of performance06:30 – Top tweets34:40 – Question 1: Michael; Have any of you backtested 2009 trades onward with one size fits all position sizing?47:15 – Question 2: Dave; What represents too much open risk as a percentage of AUM?56:55 – Question 3: Brian; How does a Trend Following system trade a parabolic market?01:06:15 – Question 4: George; What are the commandments of Trend Following you reference in earlier episodes?01:10:00 – Question 5: George; Could Moritz discuss why he dislikes a simple Trend Following system on just the S&P 500 when Meb Faber’s research shows it is effective.01:12:40 – Question 6: George; Is Jerry’s infrequent overall risk reduction built into his system?01:15:10 – Question 7: George; Most Trend Followers use stops, why doesn’t DUNN?01:19:10 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

24 Maalis 20191h 22min

On today’s episode guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. With these three world class volatility experts on the show, we’ll be going deep into the current state of volatility, the ramifications of United States quantitative easing, as well as the economic effects on the market of various social movements around the world.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How our guests got interested in the financial industry and data analyticsThe state of the market now and where it is headed in the futureWhy Dan sees the Quantitative Easing and its effect on market changes hurting long-term volatilityThe hidden risks to the markets from the rise of populismDan’s “top five longball macro themes” and what we can learn from themWhere Matthew sees opportunities in volatility todayWhat it has been like as a long-vol trader for the last ten years, when you are up against the World’s Central BanksWhy you don’t have to put your “end-of-the-world” hat on…just yet-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital ManagementLearn more about Matthew Sargaison and <a href="https://www.man.com/"...

20 Maalis 201930min

Discussion points this week include, Volatility vs Risk, the differences between Trading and Investing, Zero Hedge’s comment about CTAs & Trend Followers being useless, and the NY Times article on high market skepticism while prices continue to go up. Also, should CTAs be used as a tool just for ‘Crisis Alpha’, or something more? Can Trend Following be used as a timing tool? What is the best sample size and look-back period when testing a system?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:35 – Weekly review of performance05:30 – Top tweets24:30 – TF needs a better slogan than “crisis alpha” – listeners are welcome to write in.39:20 – Question 1: Antonio; How should TF work with traditional 60/40 stock/bond investing (and more on the podcast)?56:20 – Question 2: Kevin; When backtesting do you have a preferred definition of what was and was not a trend or do you apply discretion?01:03:50 – Announcement: Guest Jesse Felder coming on the show in a few weeks01:04:35 – Benchmark Performance updatePaper Reference 1 – https://www.ahl.com/strategic-rebalancingPaper Reference 2 – https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/A-Century-of-Evidence-on-Trend-Following-InvestingPaper Reference 3 – <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3050736" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

16 Maalis 20191h 8min

Is it more profitable to be longer-term? When is Trend Following the wrong strategy to use? Should you ‘ease’ into a trade, or go all in, and how should you adjust position size? Other talking points include where to trade Single Stock Futures, how to include Options into a Trend Following strategy, as well as recent quotes from Stanley Druckenmiller about being greedy in the markets, and the quotes from Howard Marks on the psychology of the markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:35 – Weekly review of performance06:15 – Top tweets29:35 – Question 1: Antonio; How do you determine if your Trend Following model is broken?45:00 – Question 2: Seth; How does Jerry diversify his single stock portfolio?47:20 – Question 3: Dave; Could you discuss specific details of your systems?48:15 – Question 4/5/6: Carlos; How does Jerry trade single stock futures given liquidity? What is your opinion on using alternative data for position sizing/signal generation? What is your opinion on adjusting position sizes using momentum/pyramiding/etc.?58:20 – Question 7: Walter; What exchange does Jerry use to trade single stock futures/where is the liquidity?01:03:30 – Question 8: Brian; Do you use options strategies? If so would you discuss your strategies?01:09:50 – Question 9: Glen; Please discuss your execution process once a system provides a signal.01:15:00 – Question 10/11: Keith; If establishing a new system, do you put on all positions as of a specific date or sit in cash...

10 Maalis 20191h 23min

Would you believe somebody if they told you they had been very successful in the investment world, by looking at the just markets once a week? Everything, and everyone, seems to be getting increasingly more short-term in their nature, so it seems counter-intuitive that you can run an actively managed trading strategy by only checking for new signals once a week. Nevertheless, this is exactly what Scot Billington and his partners have done.When I spoke to Scot a while back, he shared some great stories and real-life experiences, that had led him and his partners to this realization, and ultimately, their unique way of implementing a Trend Following approach. I’m excited to share some of these key takeaways with you today.Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of...

5 Maalis 201913min

Discussion points this week include: Where to start if you want to become a Trend Following Trader, whether or not to trade markets differently, Bloomberg’s article on the supposed Failing of Trend Following, how strategies can cope and adapt during drawdowns, how to know when you are truly diversified or not, and a lot more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:20 – Weekly review of performance07:00 – Top tweets32:30 – Question 1: Karl; Where would you start if you wanted to become a Trend Follower?36:30 – Question 2/3: Paul; Considering return volatility and investor tolerance, how do you help investors determine their optimal allocation to Trend Following? Have your personal volatility preferences changed over time?45:45 – Question 4: Antonio; If historical drawdowns have no bearing on the future (as the podcast has said), how do you know your system won’t blow up?50:10 – Question 5: Antonio; How do you calculate future expected returns with a TF system?55:20 – Question 6: Antonio; If you can’t estimate future returns, why bet TF will keep working in the future?59:30 – Question 7: Antonio; Should recent performance of TF systems influence future return expectations?01:03:10 – Question 8: Brian; How does a CTA choose a company to sell their products?01:05:00 – Question 9/10: Samuel; Based on correlation, what level of diversification is enough? What will cause Jerry to adjust his risk?01:09:00 – Question 11: Samuel; How often should positions be...

3 Maalis 20191h 37min

Today Niels continues his conversation with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. Listen in to learn when our guests use investment theory versus data, new standards for management fees, and what our guests look for in maintaining a reliable team for their investors.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:When to use investment theory versus data, and how you know when you have chosen correctlyHow the guests review their managers and analyze their resultsWhat organizations of different sizes can do to prepare for a crisisHow Steven sees the new fee structure for hedge funds, that TRS helped develop, as more reasonable than the standard 2&20How a race to the bottom for management fees can remove much of the creative energy from the alternative manager spaceWhat excites Trent about the BBB section of the investment grade bond marketWhat is new and upcoming in the hedge fund spaceThe reading that our guests never miss inside and outside of the investment space-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus HoldingsLearn more about Trent Webster...

1 Maalis 201944min