SI238: Why Not to Trend Follow ft. Rob Carver

SI238: Why Not to Trend Follow ft. Rob Carver

Join us for an engaging conversation with Rob Carver, where we delve into the world of systematic trend following. We explore topics like how to forecast future market volatility and the pros and cons of using a Value at Risk methodology. We also discuss the benefits and drawbacks of tail risk hedging, and whether percentage or price differences are better for estimating standard deviation. As a surprise twist, we also explore the reasons why you should NOT be a trend follower. Tune in for a fun and thought-provoking discussion with Rob.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:40 - What happened since last time?

09:42 - Industry performance update

10:38 - Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?

13:28 - Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?

20:49 - Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend?

25:41 - Libor Futures being replaced

30:41 - Blogpost about estimating standard deviation

38:01 - Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction

43:37 - Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging

56:22 - Reasons Not to trend follow

01:09:50 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Jaksot(909)

SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around ba...

28 Kesä 20251h 13min

GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott

GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott

Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor...

25 Kesä 20251h 15min

SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlo...

21 Kesä 20251h 8min

GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen

GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen

Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less...

18 Kesä 20251h 1min

SI352: Trend Systems Under Strain ft. Nick Baltas

SI352: Trend Systems Under Strain ft. Nick Baltas

Nick Baltas is back with Niels for a conversation that sits at the intersection of technology, uncertainty, and discipline. As AI-generated data floods the system and market reversals grow sharper, th...

14 Kesä 20251h 3min

UGO03: This Isn’t 2008. That’s the Problem ft. Benn Eifert

UGO03: This Isn’t 2008. That’s the Problem ft. Benn Eifert

Back on the Cboe floor, Cem Karsan sits down with Benn Eifert to trace the fault lines shaping today’s volatility regime. They dig into why market structure, not just macro, is driving outcomes... fro...

11 Kesä 202545min

SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan

SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan

As trend followers push through one of the toughest environments in years, Rich and Niels unpack what’s actually driving the pain. They draw a sharp line between two camps in the industry - those who ...

7 Kesä 20251h 8min

OI16: Return Stacking: Form, Function & Friction ft. Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler

OI16: Return Stacking: Form, Function & Friction ft. Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler

Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler joins to unpack the mechanics of stacking returns inside an ETF — not as a branding exercise, but as a way to navigate the hard constraints of scale, structure, and inv...

4 Kesä 20251h 6min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahapodi
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-rahamania
juristipodi
taloudellinen-mielenrauha
rss-sami-miettinen-neuvottelija
pomojen-suusta
rss-seuraava-potilas
leadcast
yrittaja
rss-startup-ministerio
rss-paasipodi
rss-draivi
rss-rikasta-elamaa
rss-markkinointitrippi
rss-bisnespaiva
rss-set-for-life-sijoita-ja-vaurastu