SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas

SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas

Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode!

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Looking back on the week

13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series

19:23 - The impact of the SVB event

23:02 - Industry performance update

24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends

35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following

40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there?

43:28 - Defending trend following

54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts

57:06 - The trend following narrative

01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital

01:09:34 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

Jaksot(891)

TTU03 How To Get Predictable Returns ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 1of2

TTU03 How To Get Predictable Returns ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 1of2

On today’s show I am talking to Mike Dever, the Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management. Mike is a Divergent Thinking Systematic Investment Manager and Author of the best selling book “Jackass Investing”. Mike has been trading for almost 4 decades and shares a wealth of insight to how he has stayed successful and how his trading approach and research has stayed current in an ever changing financial landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The Evolution of Mike’s TradingHow Mike almost got in to business with Richard DonchianHow they developed a systematic trading model in the 1980sHow Mike met and invested with Paul Tudor Jones, John W. Henry and was the first outside investor in TranstrendHow Mike went from being a discretionary trader to become fully systematic when launching the Benchmark Program, and WhyAbout the experience of running the Brandywine Benchmark Program in in the ‘90sHow Mike discovered the importance of Portfolio Allocation in the 1980sThe Story of Developing the Predictive Diversification Portfolio Allocation ModelThe Entrepreneurial Storm that Kept Mike away from Trading and Brandywine for YearsThe story of developing the Brandywine Symphony ProgramHow many people it takes to run a system with more than 1,000 strategy/market combinationsExploring the track record of Brandywine Symphony ProgramWhy one should avoid making decisions based on single return drivers5 Themes in Brandywine’s Asset Allocation Strategy: Fundamental, Sentiment, Event, Arbitrage and Alpha HedgeHow Marginal Cost of Production Works as a Return DriverAre the strategies from the 1980’s just as effective today?What is directional arbitrage?-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Jackass Investing by Mike DeverLearn about Richard Donchian the Grandfather of Trend FollowingLearn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood FoundationLearn about John W. HenryFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

2 Kesä 201458min

TTU02: Why The Game of Picking Sectors is a Fool’s Errand ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 2of2

TTU02: Why The Game of Picking Sectors is a Fool’s Errand ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 2of2

Welcome back to our conversation with Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners.In this interview we discuss the history of Sunrise Capital Partners, the current evolution in their financial product line and the inner workings of what it takes to make it as a successful trading organization in the ever changing market conditions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Exploring the design structure of the Sunrise Evolution program: Quadrant A, B, C and D and how they play togetherDetailed examples of how trading models can be different.How trade implementation works with complex systems like theseAbout the Volume of trading the Sunrise Capital does each dayWhy the game of picking sectors is a fools errandStrategies for dealing with the emotional weight of drawdownsSunrise Capital Management’s approach to researchThe traits and what it takes to become a great CTA----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on LinkedIn.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score...

29 Touko 20141h 2min

TTU01: Are Research Ideas Overrated? ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 1of2

TTU01: Are Research Ideas Overrated? ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 1of2

Sunrise Capital was the first CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) ever.The company has evolved considerably since its inception in the 1970s.Today on the show, Jason Gerlach, the Chief Executive Officer at Sunrise Capital joins us to discuss the history of the company and about the evolution of their trading strategy over nearly 4 decades. Sunrise has achieved astounding results over the lifetime of the company and Jason provides unique insights to the inner workings of Sunrise.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The story of Sunrise Capitals founding in the early 1970sRick Slaughter (Sunrise’s Chief Researcher) founded Commodity Monitors – the First Hedge Fund/CTA firm ever launchedJack Forest (Sunrise Commodities) and Gary Davis (Cresta Commodities) – The doctors trading outside the hospitalHow the three pioneers of the CTA/Commodity Trading Industry came together to form Sunrise Capital Partners in the mid 90’sHow Jason was brought on into the firm and developed a succession plan for the businessThe unexpected story of how Jason “the Attorney” turned into Jason “the Systematic Trading Guy”What Sunrise Capital Partners offer today?How does one structure a CTA firm like Sunrise, what functions and how do you manage them?The role of outsourcing in the day-to-day operations of Sunrise Capital PartnersWhat Sunrise discovered in the early 00’s which indicated to them a decay in long-term trend following and how they responded-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Download the article Niels mentioned: Fallacies to Avoid When Selecting a CTAFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a...

26 Touko 201437min

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