E309 - Karl Whelan

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Professor Karl Whelan, Professor of Economics at University College Dublin and author of Fine Margins: How Economics Explains Sports Betting.

Hear them discuss:

How Karl went from macroeconomics to researching the economics behind sports betting.
What bookmakers got right about home-field advantage when sports returned after COVID.
Why betting odds are designed to maximize sportsbook profits rather than simply reflect the “truth.”
The favorite-longshot bias and why longshot bets tend to produce worse returns for bettors.
Why NBA and MLB markets are notable exceptions to the favorite-longshot bias.
Why unders are generally priced more favorably than overs, particularly in player props.
The economics behind parlays and why single-game parlays can be especially profitable for sportsbooks.
How Karl’s research into Kalshi and prediction markets reveals opportunities, pricing inefficiencies, market makers, and the impact of fees.
Why sports betting markets function much like financial markets and how they aggregate information.
How AI is transforming Karl’s research, data analysis, backtesting, and the way he teaches economics and sports betting.

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