SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas

Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Nick’s radar

02:05 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 500

04:46 - Why global bond yields are moving higher

08:56 - A strong month and year for trend following

13:54 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike

16:29 - Can volatility make trend following better?

21:17 - What the latest research actually tells us

24:27 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction

27:38 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help

30:19 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers

32:36 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation

44:48 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio?

50:19 - The problem with backtesting AI investment models

55:16 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following?

58:33 - Using AI to manage multiple investment objectives

01:02:19 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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