The higher education bubble pops and religious liberty is protected – for now.

Robert Zemsky has served as the professor of higher education at the University of Pennsylvania for more than two decades. During his tenure, there have been big changes in the world of higher education, but none so drastic as what the Chronicle of Higher Education called this week – The Post-Pandemic College. Zemsky’s book, The College Stress Test, was published just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Already colleges across the nation were closing in record numbers. When COVID struck, that number accelerated quickly.

Since 2015, more than 30 institutions of higher education have closed or have been forced into a merger with another school. By the end of 2019, enrollment was already declining at public institutions by more than 35%. For private colleges, that number doubled.

Zemsky’s book predicted as much. He just did not realize how accurate his enrollment and financial models would become in light of an international pandemic. “Small colleges with small endowments will close,” Zemsky stated at a recent forum at the Wharton School on Penn’s campus. “Every aspect of the university experience has been touched by COVID, and we aren’t sure what is going to happen in the future

When the COVID-19 pandemic began to rise in full force, states were forced to issue guidelines that restricted the number of people who could gather at one time. This was especially true for in-door gatherings. Churches, like schools, were affected by these restrictions. Seeking to maintain some semblance of community, many churches quickly transitioned to livestream services. Most pastors desired to submit to the orders of the state, but over time, these restrictions grew in ways that directly interfered with the free exercise of religion – a right that is protected by the First Amendment.

Sooner or later, it seemed inevitable that the Supreme Court would be forced to interpret just how far the government could reduce religious freedom while it sought to reduce the virus’s spread.

The Supreme Court had already issued two earlier rulings allowing states to place harsher restrictions on houses of worship. Both of these cases came to the Court from Nevada and California, respectively. Both of them were decided on 5-to-4 votes, with Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. siding with the court’s four liberals. The Nevada case was particularly irrational. It allowed casinos and other tourist institutions to host hundreds of people inside their walls. Churches could not.

When Governor Andrew Cuomo recently issued a regulation that capped attendance at houses of worship in areas in the most restrictive “red” and “orange” regions of the state to 10 or 25 people regardless of the size of their building, that was a step too far.

Thanks to Justice Amy Coney Barrett, the Court reversed its earlier decision. Justice Barrett’s presence on the Court formed a new majority. The opinion was directly focused on the arbitrary and unequal treatment of churches. The ruling was written as an application of the equal protection clause in the First Amendment. The majority opinion was unambiguous: “the loss of First Amendment freedoms, for even minimal periods of time, unquestionably constitutes irreparable injury.”