Poker, Probability, and Financial Modeling with Dan Mayoh

In this episode of Financial Modeler’s Corner, host Paul Barnhurst sits down with Dan Mayoh to discuss his career in financial modeling, lessons from model auditing, and why he sees Excel as one of the world’s most accessible programming languages. Dan also shares how mathematical modeling, poker, and probability have shaped his approach to risk and decision-making under uncertainty.

Dan Mayoh is the Founder and CEO of Fintega Pty Ltd and a financial modeling and spreadsheet specialist with more than 15 years of experience. With a background in actuarial studies, Dan began his career in model auditing before moving into financial modeling and consulting. He also placed second in the inaugural ModelOff competition and was an early CFM holder with the Financial Modeling Institute.

Expect to Learn:

• Why Excel can be viewed as a programming language.
• What model auditing teaches you about model design.
• How Modeloff helped Dan grow as a modeler and consultant.
• How mathematical modeling helps quantify risk and uncertainty.
• Why good decisions should not be judged only by outcomes.

Here are a few relevant quotes from the episode:

• “Excel is really just the most accessible programming language in the world.” - Dan Mayoh
• “Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose, even when you make the right decision.” - Dan Mayoh

Dan explains that strong financial modeling goes beyond formulas and functions. Structure, navigation, error checks, usability, and designing around the end user all play an important role in creating models that are easier to understand, update, and trust.

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Disclosure: Portions of this episode (such as the introduction or promotional segments) use AI-generated voice narration that has undergone human editorial review.

In Today's Episode:

[00:00] - Trailer

[03:40] - Dan’s Financial Modeling Journey

[06:05] - Building a Career in Financial Modeling

[12:14] - Modeling as Software Development

[15:09] - Financial Modeling Horror Stories

[19:19] - Lessons From Model Auditing

[22:03] - Competing in ModelOff

[27:39] - Mathematical Modeling of Games

[32:04] - Modeling Risk in Real-World Projects

[35:13] - Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

[40:53] - Rapid Fire: Excel & Modeling

[44:22] - Closing Thoughts