Forensic Scientist Reveals Disturbing Error Rates in DNA Database Matches

Forensic Scientist Reveals Disturbing Error Rates in DNA Database Matches

The National Offender database, which contains the DNA profiles of offenders, has more than 13 million profiles, almost double since 2009. However, there is growing concern about the accuracy of DNA matches and the potential for human error in the system. Forensic scientist and professor Dan Krane revealed alarming error rates in DNA test results on the "Hidden Killers" podcast with Tony Brueski.

Krane, who has extensive experience working with DNA databases, expressed his excitement about the potential to identify error rates or determine errors in DNA test results. He cited his involvement in an investigation for the state of Victoria in Australia, where he had access to about 15,000 DNA profiles. "When you did all possible pairwise comparisons of those 15,000 people, what you found is that there were a fair number that matched perfectly at 14 out of 18," Krane explained. "There were fewer that matched at 15 out of 18, but still some, fewer that matched at 16 out of 18, but still some, and then a whole bunch that matched at 17 out of 18, more than matched at 14 out of 18, and then a whole bunch that matched at 18 out of 18."

Krane explained that the only explanation for the ones that matched at 18 out of 18 was that these were people who were entered into the system twice, possibly under an alias. However, the ones that matched at 17 out of 18 indicated that there was a mistake in one of the two times their DNA got entered into the system. This translated into an error rate of one in 300. "And when you're talking about chances of a coincidental match in the quintillions or the bazillions, if you prefer, yet you make a mistake every 300th time that you try to generate a DNA profile, the bazillion number doesn't matter anymore. It gets swapped out by that chance of making a mistake," Krane said.

This error rate is particularly concerning as it means that opportunities to generate useful investigative leads are missed. If a DNA sample is collected from a crime scene and there is no suspect, authorities search the CODIS database to find a match. However, every 300th time this is done, a lead is not generated, which Krane believes is an unacceptably high failure rate given the consequences of having a rapist or a murderer go without being apprehended.

Krane suggested that one way to correct this could be by doing a pairwise comparison of the 13 million profiles in the federal database to determine if errors happen more frequently at one of the locations than others. "Maybe one of those loci just is more error-prone than others. Maybe the biology just doesn't work as well for that one locus. That one location. And when you do your database search, maybe you don't include that one, right? Or maybe you include it and this, but you factor in that you discount it because that one is just more prone to having a mistake," Krane suggested.

Krane also expressed concern about the secrecy surrounding the CODIS database and suggested that more people in the correct positions should have access to it to identify more criminals and solve more cases. He also mentioned the development of probabilistic genotyping systems, expert systems used to interpret test results that human analysts find too complicated. These systems, while not openly shared due to stringent non-disclosure agreements, can distinguish between signal and noise, which is particularly useful when dealing with a small amount of DNA or a sample with many different contributors.

While the expert systems may not explicitly use artificial intelligence (AI), they involve serious computer science undertakings with hundreds of thousands of lines of computer code. These systems may help reduce human error and improve the accuracy of DNA database searches, ultimately helping to catch more criminals and solve more cases.

Krane's insights highlight the need for more transparency and improvement in the system to ensure that DNA databases are used to their fullest potential in solving crimes and catching criminals.
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Accused Gilgo Killer Rex Heuermann CLEARED in One Long Island Murder-WEEK IN REVIEW

Accused Gilgo Killer Rex Heuermann CLEARED in One Long Island Murder-WEEK IN REVIEW

In a stunning twist in the Gilgo Beach serial killer saga, accused murderer Rex Heuermann has officially been cleared in the 1994 strangulation death of Colleen McNamee, a Long Island sex worker long believed to be one of his potential victims. For years, McNamee’s name was quietly linked to the growing list of women found murdered across Suffolk County — a list that defined Heuermann as the face of one of the most disturbing serial murder cases in American history. But a new DNA analysis just ended that speculation for good. The Suffolk County Medical Examiner’s Office confirmed that Heuermann’s genetic profile did not match the “Unknown Male A” found on McNamee’s remains. Instead, the DNA points back toward convicted killer John Bittrolff, a carpenter already serving 50 years to life for two nearly identical murders. Ironically, it was Bittrolff himself who pushed for the test — hoping it would shift blame to Heuermann. It did the opposite. This development doesn’t exonerate Heuermann from the seven brutal killings he’s charged with — victims Amber Lynn Costello, Megan Waterman, Melissa Barthelemy, Maureen Brainard-Barnes, Sandra Costilla, Jessica Taylor, and Valerie Mack. Their DNA trails, cell records, and forensic links remain strong. But it does sharpen the boundaries of truth: what’s proven, what’s not, and how modern forensic science continues to rewrite the Gilgo Beach narrative. In this episode, Tony Brueski breaks down the case that looked like it belonged to Rex Heuermann — and why it never did. From forensic breakthroughs to the psychology of blame, we explore how one killer tried to hide behind another, and how DNA once again cut through the myth to reveal the facts. #RexHeuermann #GilgoBeach #TrueCrime #ColleenMcNamee #DNAEvidence #JohnBittrolff #LongIslandMurders #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #TrueCrimeToday Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

16 Marras 202516min

Accused Gilgo Killer Rex Heuermann CLEARED in One Long Island Murder

Accused Gilgo Killer Rex Heuermann CLEARED in One Long Island Murder

In a stunning twist in the Gilgo Beach serial killer saga, accused murderer Rex Heuermann has officially been cleared in the 1994 strangulation death of Colleen McNamee, a Long Island sex worker long believed to be one of his potential victims. For years, McNamee’s name was quietly linked to the growing list of women found murdered across Suffolk County — a list that defined Heuermann as the face of one of the most disturbing serial murder cases in American history. But a new DNA analysis just ended that speculation for good. The Suffolk County Medical Examiner’s Office confirmed that Heuermann’s genetic profile did not match the “Unknown Male A” found on McNamee’s remains. Instead, the DNA points back toward convicted killer John Bittrolff, a carpenter already serving 50 years to life for two nearly identical murders. Ironically, it was Bittrolff himself who pushed for the test — hoping it would shift blame to Heuermann. It did the opposite. This development doesn’t exonerate Heuermann from the seven brutal killings he’s charged with — victims Amber Lynn Costello, Megan Waterman, Melissa Barthelemy, Maureen Brainard-Barnes, Sandra Costilla, Jessica Taylor, and Valerie Mack. Their DNA trails, cell records, and forensic links remain strong. But it does sharpen the boundaries of truth: what’s proven, what’s not, and how modern forensic science continues to rewrite the Gilgo Beach narrative. In this episode, Tony Brueski breaks down the case that looked like it belonged to Rex Heuermann — and why it never did. From forensic breakthroughs to the psychology of blame, we explore how one killer tried to hide behind another, and how DNA once again cut through the myth to reveal the facts. #RexHeuermann #GilgoBeach #TrueCrime #ColleenMcNamee #DNAEvidence #JohnBittrolff #LongIslandMurders #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #TrueCrimeToday Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

12 Marras 202516min

Why the Rex Heuermann Trial Is STILL Delayed: Inside the Legal War Behind Gilgo Beach-WEEK IN REVIEW

Why the Rex Heuermann Trial Is STILL Delayed: Inside the Legal War Behind Gilgo Beach-WEEK IN REVIEW

The Gilgo Beach murders shocked the nation. The arrest of Rex Heuermann — the quiet Long Island architect accused of being a serial killer — was supposed to bring answers. Instead, it’s brought more questions. Two years later, there’s still no trial date. Why? Because behind the headlines, the justice system is waging a silent war. In this episode of Hidden Killers with Tony Brueski, we dig into the real reasons justice has stalled. Prosecutors are relying on cutting-edge DNA pulled from rootless hairs — a first for New York courts. Defense attorneys call it “junk science.” The judge allowed it, but that ruling unleashed months of follow-up litigation: new motions, new hearings, new expert reports. Every microscopic detail is being challenged to make sure the case can survive appeal. Then there’s the consolidation — seven murders, one trial. That decision means every chain of custody, every test, every autopsy from 1993 to 2010 has to hold up together. Add old phone records, outdated forensics, and a DA’s office desperate to restore its credibility, and you get one of the most complicated homicide prosecutions in modern history. This isn’t justice delayed. It’s justice under construction — a slow, grinding fight between science, law, and time itself. Tony Brueski breaks down the psychology, the strategy, and the human toll of a case that refuses to move fast. Why is the state taking its time? What’s happening behind the scenes? And what happens if the science fails? Watch now to understand why the waiting matters. #RexHeuermann #GilgoBeach #HiddenKillers #TrueCrime #DNAEvidence #JusticeDelayed #TonyBrueski #CrimePodcast #SerialKillerCase #ForensicScience Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

8 Marras 202518min

Why the Rex Heuermann Trial Is STILL Delayed: Inside the Legal War Behind Gilgo Beach

Why the Rex Heuermann Trial Is STILL Delayed: Inside the Legal War Behind Gilgo Beach

The Gilgo Beach murders shocked the nation. The arrest of Rex Heuermann — the quiet Long Island architect accused of being a serial killer — was supposed to bring answers. Instead, it’s brought more questions. Two years later, there’s still no trial date. Why? Because behind the headlines, the justice system is waging a silent war. In this episode of Hidden Killers with Tony Brueski, we dig into the real reasons justice has stalled. Prosecutors are relying on cutting-edge DNA pulled from rootless hairs — a first for New York courts. Defense attorneys call it “junk science.” The judge allowed it, but that ruling unleashed months of follow-up litigation: new motions, new hearings, new expert reports. Every microscopic detail is being challenged to make sure the case can survive appeal. Then there’s the consolidation — seven murders, one trial. That decision means every chain of custody, every test, every autopsy from 1993 to 2010 has to hold up together. Add old phone records, outdated forensics, and a DA’s office desperate to restore its credibility, and you get one of the most complicated homicide prosecutions in modern history. This isn’t justice delayed. It’s justice under construction — a slow, grinding fight between science, law, and time itself. Tony Brueski breaks down the psychology, the strategy, and the human toll of a case that refuses to move fast. Why is the state taking its time? What’s happening behind the scenes? And what happens if the science fails? Watch now to understand why the waiting matters. #RexHeuermann #GilgoBeach #HiddenKillers #TrueCrime #DNAEvidence #JusticeDelayed #TonyBrueski #CrimePodcast #SerialKillerCase #ForensicScience Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

4 Marras 202518min

Inside the Mind of Rex Heuermann: The Gilgo Beach Killer Psychology-WEEK IN REVIEW

Inside the Mind of Rex Heuermann: The Gilgo Beach Killer Psychology-WEEK IN REVIEW

He looked like the guy next door — an architect, a husband, a father.  But prosecutors say Rex Heuermann was also the man behind the Gilgo Beach murders, one of the most disturbing serial-killer cases in recent memory. In this psychological deep dive, Hidden Killers host Tony Brueski takes you inside the mind of control, exploring how a man can design blueprints by day and allegedly engineer horror by night. Through the lens of behavioral science, Tony examines compartmentalization, high-functioning psychopathy, and sadistic dominance — the traits that allow someone to live a double life so convincingly it fools everyone around them. From the soundproof basement to the meticulous planning, Heuermann’s world wasn’t chaos — it was choreography. This episode unpacks how his architecture mirrored his pathology and why the façade of normalcy is often the perfect camouflage for the worst kind of predator. Because monsters don’t always hide in the dark. Sometimes they wave from the driveway. #RexHeuermann #GilgoBeach #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #TrueCrimePodcast #SerialKillerPsychology #CriminalMind #FBIProfile #LongIslandMurders #BehavioralAnalysis Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

25 Loka 202515min

Inside the Mind of Rex Heuermann: The Gilgo Beach Killer Psychology

Inside the Mind of Rex Heuermann: The Gilgo Beach Killer Psychology

He looked like the guy next door — an architect, a husband, a father.  But prosecutors say Rex Heuermann was also the man behind the Gilgo Beach murders, one of the most disturbing serial-killer cases in recent memory. In this psychological deep dive, Hidden Killers host Tony Brueski takes you inside the mind of control, exploring how a man can design blueprints by day and allegedly engineer horror by night. Through the lens of behavioral science, Tony examines compartmentalization, high-functioning psychopathy, and sadistic dominance — the traits that allow someone to live a double life so convincingly it fools everyone around them. From the soundproof basement to the meticulous planning, Heuermann’s world wasn’t chaos — it was choreography. This episode unpacks how his architecture mirrored his pathology and why the façade of normalcy is often the perfect camouflage for the worst kind of predator. Because monsters don’t always hide in the dark. Sometimes they wave from the driveway. #RexHeuermann #GilgoBeach #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #TrueCrimePodcast #SerialKillerPsychology #CriminalMind #FBIProfile #LongIslandMurders #BehavioralAnalysis Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

21 Loka 202515min

Rex Heuermann Gilgo Evidence Tour Doll, Cage, DNA, and Hair-WEEK IN REVIEW

Rex Heuermann Gilgo Evidence Tour Doll, Cage, DNA, and Hair-WEEK IN REVIEW

Welcome to the "Week in Review," where we delve into the true stories behind this week's headlines. Your host, Tony Brueski, joins hands with a rotating roster of guests, sharing their insights and analysis on a collection of intriguing, perplexing, and often chilling stories that made the news.       This is not your average news recap. With the sharp investigative lens of Tony and his guests, the show uncovers layers beneath the headlines, offering a comprehensive perspective that traditional news can often miss. From high-profile criminal trials to in-depth examinations of ongoing investigations, this podcast takes listeners on a fascinating journey through the world of true crime and current events.       Each episode navigates through multiple stories, illuminating their details with factual reporting, expert commentary, and engaging conversation. Tony and his guests discuss each case's nuances, complexities, and human elements, delivering a multi-dimensional understanding to their audience.  Whether you are a dedicated follower of true crime, or an everyday listener interested in the stories shaping our world, the "Week in Review" brings you the perfect balance of intrigue, information, and intelligent conversation. Expect thoughtful analysis, informed opinions, and thought-provoking discussions beyond the 24-hour news cycle. Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

28 Syys 202524min

Wendi Adelson in the Hot Seat, Jeff Lacasse Speaks | D4vd Scandal & Gilgo Beach Trial-WEEK IN REVIEW

Wendi Adelson in the Hot Seat, Jeff Lacasse Speaks | D4vd Scandal & Gilgo Beach Trial-WEEK IN REVIEW

Welcome to the "Week in Review," where we delve into the true stories behind this week's headlines. Your host, Tony Brueski, joins hands with a rotating roster of guests, sharing their insights and analysis on a collection of intriguing, perplexing, and often chilling stories that made the news.       This is not your average news recap. With the sharp investigative lens of Tony and his guests, the show uncovers layers beneath the headlines, offering a comprehensive perspective that traditional news can often miss. From high-profile criminal trials to in-depth examinations of ongoing investigations, this podcast takes listeners on a fascinating journey through the world of true crime and current events.       Each episode navigates through multiple stories, illuminating their details with factual reporting, expert commentary, and engaging conversation. Tony and his guests discuss each case's nuances, complexities, and human elements, delivering a multi-dimensional understanding to their audience.  Whether you are a dedicated follower of true crime, or an everyday listener interested in the stories shaping our world, the "Week in Review" brings you the perfect balance of intrigue, information, and intelligent conversation. Expect thoughtful analysis, informed opinions, and thought-provoking discussions beyond the 24-hour news cycle. Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

28 Syys 20251h 56min

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