The year in review: Albanese v. Dutton. Who wins out?

Join us in this captivating episode of New Politics as we look at the fascinating world of Australian politics, highlighting the key events and figures that shaped the year 2023. In part 2 of our series, our analysis begins with a comprehensive review of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s performance, his soaring popularity in the first half of the year, marked by significant achievements such as the Labor government’s triumph in the Aston byelection – a historical victory not seen in over a century. We also touch on the challenges faced, including the Robodebt Royal Commission and economic issues like inflation and interest rate hikes.
But Albanese’s popularity waned, almost in synch with the falling support for the Voice to Parliament and by the end of the year, he was more unpopular than Peter Dutton. How did it get to this stage?
We also explore the contrasting political journey of Dutton, his initial struggles at the beginning of the year, including the unexpected loss in the Aston byelection and his attempts to gain momentum on national issues. However, his tactical shift in opposing the Voice to Parliament boosted his political fortunes, at the expense of Indigenous people, but it’s likely to be a short-term fillip and unlikely to sustain him into the future. However, Dutton keeps being written off, but he is still there: is because of his abilities, or because there are no other challengers for his position within the Liberal Party?
And, the opinion polls for the year. We discuss how Labor’s current position in the polls, mirroring their election night standing in May 2022, bodes well for them despite the unpredictability tied to their low primary vote and provide a nuanced view of the electoral landscape and what it could mean for future elections. Modern politics does not favour the two big political players as well as it has in the past – Labor could increase its primary vote at the next election, yet lose office. Conversely, its primary vote could drop further, yet it could pick up seats, such is the unpredictable nature of a low primary vote.
Finally, we look ahead to 2024: we forecast the political climate, focusing on key issues like the Stage 3 tax cuts and the economy’s role in the lead-up to the next election, and we provide a deep outline of the intricate dynamics of Australian national politics and what to expect in the year ahead.