Does the Russian government really spend 40% of its budget on the military?

Tim Harford tells the story of the student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper that has been used to make the case for austerity cuts. In 2010, two Harvard economists published an academic study, which showed that when government debt rises above 90% of annual economic output, growth falls significantly. As politicians tried to find answers to the global economic crisis, “Growth in a Time of Debt” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was cited by some of the key figures making the case for tough debt-cutting measures in the US and Europe. But, in the course of a class project, student Thomas Herndon and his professors say they have found problems with the Reinhart-Rogoff findings. What does this mean for austerity economics?

22 Huhti 20139min

Baroness Margaret Thatcher, who has died aged 87, was Britain’s first female prime minister and one of the most influential political figures of the 20th Century. She was a pioneer of free market economics, helping to spread the ideas around the world. But the Iron lady was a divisive figure with passionate supporters and critics. Both hold to strong beliefs about what she did. But what does the data tell us about the many claims made about Mrs Thatcher?

15 Huhti 20139min

It’s the fourth anniversary of the earthquake which devastated the city of L’Aquila in Italy and which led to the conviction of six scientists and an official who failed to predict the disaster. Scientists and statisticians worldwide were alarmed at the six-year sentences for manslaughter the seven accused received. It was feared the prospect of being put on trial would put off scientists from even trying to communicate risk – a very difficult business. But the risk assessors’ pendulum seems to have swung the other way. Data and alarms about tremors are being issued regularly, triggering school closures and building evacuations. But how useful is this information? Ruth Alexander speaks to Ian Main, professor of seismology and rock physics at Edinburgh University in the UK, who puts the risks into context.

8 Huhti 20139min

What if a super-villain took control of the world's gold a melted it in to a cube? How big would it be? Wesley Stephenson finds out.

30 Maalis 20139min

With an avalanche of 2.5 quintillion bytes of data generated daily, could this be used to change our lives and does it have a darker side?

25 Maalis 20139min

Only last week Ivory Toldson heard the speaker say there are more black men in prison in America than in college. ‘Here we go again’ he thought. Only the week before he had written his second article on why this statistic is not true. This week Ruth Alexander looks at where this ‘fact’ came from and why it is still being used. Also, why the opinion polls got the Kenyan elections wrong.

18 Maalis 20139min

With the news that a baby has been ‘cured’ of HIV what do the numbers tell us about the epidemic. Ruth Alexander looks at the changes in the way that the disease has been measured. Also the Dow Jones hit an all-time high this week so is it party time for investors?

11 Maalis 20139min

Kenya votes for its next President on 4th March. The opinion polls show that it is neck-and-neck between the two main candidates but an influential Kenyan political scientists has warned that the polls are wrong. Mutahi Ngunyi’s predicting a win for Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Coalition because of what he describes as ‘the tyranny of numbers’ - there are simply more registered voters from the ethnic groups that are likely to support Kenyatta than those for his rival Raila Odinga. But will Kenyans vote along ethnic lines – Ruth Alexander finds out. Also, was the Pope the subject of divine intervention when lightning struck St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican just after he announced he was stepping down? Or was it just a coincidence. More or Less looks at the chances of this occurring.

4 Maalis 20139min