How Macro Traders Navigate Uncertainties

How Macro Traders Navigate Uncertainties

Want to meet Alf and Brent in person?! Fill in this 30-second survey so we can make this happen: https://www.eSurveysPro.com/Survey.aspx?id=ad4fe049-95b7-40ef-a46b-f1bdc509b256 In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes. The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward. Plus, they discuss the odds of a Trump win and its implications. Useful link: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 https://www.semafor.com/article/05/21/2024/imprisoned-ex-trump-aide-peter-navarro-predicts-ouster-of-fed-chair-jay-powell

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Jaksot(140)

Macro Blowups Everywhere - What Now?

Macro Blowups Everywhere - What Now?

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the various macro blowups we are witnessing simultaneously: French spreads, front-end of the bond market, mortgage-backed securities, EM carry and so on. What's the b...

2 Loka 38min

On Bessent, Gold & Idiosyncratic Trades

On Bessent, Gold & Idiosyncratic Trades

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the Bessent buyback plan and its impact on markets. The duo focuses on gold, the long-end and the USD as potential release valves. The discussion then moves to two ma...

28 Elo 35min

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro P...

9 Elo 37min

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the...

31 Heinä 38min

The Orange Variable

The Orange Variable

Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how ...

10 Heinä 35min

The Rebasement Trade

The Rebasement Trade

Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?

26 Kesä 30min

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the...

22 Touko 37min

Process, Process, Process

Process, Process, Process

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent focus on va...

15 Touko 33min

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