Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House's Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie's favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Ernie's Twitter: @ernietedeschi

Ernie's Budget Lab profile

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium* by Ernie Tedeschi

*Recent Movements in [R-star]: The Most Important Interest Rate That You have Never Heard Of* by Ernie Tedeschi

*The 2024 Economic Report of the President* by the White House Council of Economic Advisers

*The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong* by Nick Timiraos

*Summers, Blanchard Say Waller's 'Soft-Landing' Paper Has Errors* by Craig Torres

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:49) – Ernie's Experience at the CEA

(00:09:15) – The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy

(00:15:28) – Ernie's Favorite Measures of the Labor Market

(00:20:17) – The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures

(00:24:07) – The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium

(00:28:56) – Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege

(00:33:46) – Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:37:01) – Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:43:25) – Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars

(00:48:39) – Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars

(00:54:46) – Assessing the Sources of High Productivity

(00:58:22) – Outro

Jaksot(522)

BONUS: Richard Clarida on His Musical Interests and *Time No Changes*

BONUS: Richard Clarida on His Musical Interests and *Time No Changes*

Richard Clarida is a professor of economics at Columbia University, a managing director at PIMCO, and was most recently the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Richard rejoins David for this special bonus segment to talk about his interest in music and his first studio album, *Time No Changes.* Richard's Federal Reserve profile Richard's PIMCO archive David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Time No Changes* by Richard Clarida *Richard Clarida on FAIT, R-Star, and the Future of the Fed's Framework* by Macro Musings

1 Touko 20246min

Richard Clarida on FAIT, R-Star, and the Future of the Fed's Framework

Richard Clarida on FAIT, R-Star, and the Future of the Fed's Framework

Richard Clarida is a well-known academic and policymaker who most recently was the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Richard is currently a professor of economics at Columbia university and is also a managing director at PIMCO. Richard joins David on Macro Musings to talk about his academic and policy work, as well as his outlook for FAIT, the Fed's framework review, the future of R-Star, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Richard's Federal Reserve profile Richard's PIMCO archive David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy* by Richard Clarida and Mark Gertler *The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective* by Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler *Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory* by Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler *Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence* by Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:04) – Richard Clarida's Background (00:11:37) – Bridging the Gap Between Academic Economics and Real-World Markets (00:21:50) – Richard's Journey Through the Policy World (00:36:29) – Constructing the Fed's FAIT Framework (00:40:53) – Evaluating the Results of the FAIT Framework (00:54:17) – The Future of the Fed's Framework (00:57:08) – The Future of R-Star (01:00:50) – Outro

29 Huhti 20241h 1min

Saleha Mohsin on *Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order*

Saleha Mohsin on *Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order*

Saleha Mohsin is a senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News, where she covers policy, politics, and power in Washington, DC. Saleha is also the author of a new book titled, *Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order,* and she joins David on Macro Musings to talk about it. Specifically, David and Saleha also discuss the intelligence and enforcement tools of the US Treasury, the basics and importance of SWIFT, the effectiveness of US sanctions, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Saleha's Twitter: @SalehaMohsin Saleha's Bloomberg archive David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order* by Saleha Mohsin *The Big Take* hosted by Saleha Mohsin Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:43) – The Weaponization of the Dollar on the Global Stage (00:08:55) – The Intelligence and Enforcement Tools of the US Treasury Department (00:13:10) – Breaking Down SWIFT and Its Importance (00:18:27) – Sanctioning Russian Oligarchs (00:22:42) – The Importance and Significance of Robert Rubin (00:25:29) – The George W. Bush of the Treasury Department (00:37:42) – Breaking Down the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (00:41:06) – The Trump Administration, China, and the Rise of Populism (00:45:30) – Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Russia Sanctions (00:51:18) – Threats to the US in the Future (00:52:48) – Outro

22 Huhti 202453min

Josh Hendrickson on the Treasury Standard and Global Dollar Dominance

Josh Hendrickson on the Treasury Standard and Global Dollar Dominance

Josh Hendrickson is the chair of the department of economics at the University of Mississippi and is the author of a new paper that looks at dollar dominance through the broad historical perspective of what is called the "Treasury Standard." Josh is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about this paper and the Treasury Standard concept. David and Josh also discuss the state's monopoly over money, the path to global dollar dominance, the path dependency of the dollar system, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Josh's Twitter: @RebelEconProf Josh's Ole Miss profile Josh's joint Substack David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Treasury Standard: Causes and Consequences* by Joshua Hendrickson *If Things Are So Great, Why Don't People Think So?* by Josh Hendrickson *The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly* by Marijn Bolhuis, Judd Cramer, Karl Schulz, and Lawrence Summers *On a Correct Measure of Inflation* by Armen Alchian and Benjamin Klein

15 Huhti 202456min

Julia Coronado on Productivity, Commercial Real Estate, and the Fed's Soft Landing

Julia Coronado on Productivity, Commercial Real Estate, and the Fed's Soft Landing

Julia Coronado is the president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, a Wall Street research firm. Julia was also recently the president of the National Association of Business Economists, and she has served as an economist on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Julia is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and she rejoins the podcast to talk about the prospects of a productivity surge, the Fed's journey to a soft landing, the state of the commercial real estate market, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Julia's Twitter: @jc_econ Julia's MacroPolicy Perspectives profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!

8 Huhti 202449min

Isabel Schnabel on the ECB and its New Operational Framework

Isabel Schnabel on the ECB and its New Operational Framework

Isabel Schnabel is a Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, and she joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the ECB and its new operational framework. Specifically, David and Isabel also discuss the structure, operations, and monetary policy instruments of the ECB, the history of its operating framework, the details surrounding its new regime, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Isabel's Twitter: @Isabel_Schnabel Isabel's ECB profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Eurosystem's Operational Framework* - Speech by Isabel Schnabel at the Money Market Contact Group meeting Slides for *The Eurosystem's Operational Framework* by Isabel Schnabel *Back to Normal?* Balance Sheet Size and Interest Rate Control* - Speech by Isabel Schnabel at an event organized by Columbia University and SGH Macro Advisors Slides for *Back to Normal? Balance Sheet Size and Interest Rate Control* by Isabel Schnabel

1 Huhti 202456min

Andrew Levin and Christina Parajon Skinner on *Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed's Accountability to Congress*

Andrew Levin and Christina Parajon Skinner on *Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed's Accountability to Congress*

Andy Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth University and a former senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Christina Parajon Skinner is a legal scholar at the University of Pennsylvania and formerly was legal counsel to the Bank of England. Andy and Christina have co-authored a new article titled, *Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed's Accountability to Congress,* and they rejoin David on Macro Musings to talk about it. Specifically, they discuss the Fed's power under a constitutional authority, the three sources of Fed undersight, proposals for reform, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Andrew's Twitter: @andrewtlevin Andrew's Dartmouth profile Christina's Twitter: @CParaSkinner Christina's UPenn profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed's Accountability to Congress* by Andrew Levin and Christina Parajon Skinner *Andrew Levin on the Costs and Benefits of QE4 and the Future of the Fed's Balance Sheet* by Macro Musings

25 Maalis 202454min

Anat Admati on the US Banking System and the Basel III Endgame

Anat Admati on the US Banking System and the Basel III Endgame

Anat Admati is a professor of finance and economics at Stanford University and is the coauthor of the 2013 book, *The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong With Banking and What to Do About It.* Anat is also a returning guest to Macro Musings and she rejoins the podcast to talk about the 2024 expanded edition of the same book, as well as the most recent developments in banking. David and Anat also discuss the effectiveness of post-financial crisis regulations, the design and impact of Basel III Endgame, the fallout from the most recent regional banking crisis, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Anat's Twitter: @anatadmati Anat's Stanford profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong With Banking and What to Do About It – New and Expanded Edition* by Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig *The Parade of Bankers' New Clothes Continues: 34 Flawed Claims Debunked* by Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig *Anat Admati on Debt, Equity, and Financial Instability* by Macro Musings *Anat Admati on the Perils of Corporate Debt and How COVID-19 Relief Efforts Have Gone Wrong* by Macro Musings *Why the Innocent Plead Guilty and the Guilty Go Free: And Other Paradoxes of Our Broken Legal System* by Jed Rakoff

18 Maalis 202456min

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