GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

In this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, we discuss:The increasing popularity of carry trading and its role in the global economyThe risk and volatility of carry trading, and how it can play a role in financial bubblesHow carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategiesThe role of liquidity within the carry worldThe future of carry-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on TwitterEpisode Timestamps:00:00 - Intro02:25 - Introduction to Kevin05:53 - Background on the co-authors of Kevin’s book09:43 - Definition of carry trading with examples13:56 - Volatility vs. risk23:11 - The role of Volatility in investing28:27 - Carry trade suppressing volatility35:55 - Does carry trades play a role in financial bubbles?41:01 - The current carry regime?43:38 - Carry in macroeconomics52:48 - What...

23 Maalis 20221h 6min

In today's episode Alan Dunne joins me to discuss many different aspects of trend following - its relevance, strengths, weaknesses and future, roll-harvesting strategies, what causes trends in markets, whether it is too late to invest in trend following, its role within risk mitigation, how investors perceive trend following and if you really need to trade strategies that fits your personality.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Trend following and its strengths, weaknesses, relevance and futureDealing with volatility as a trend followerFinding investment strategies that fits your personalityWhat causes trends in marketsRisk mitigation strategies-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:45 - Market recap04:32 - Overview of the week11:35 - Q1, ABE: What are your opinion on roll-harvesting strategies?21:06 - What causes trends in markets?43:05 - Is it too late to invest in trend following?50:22 - Risk mitigation and investor perception of Trend Following58:42 - Key insights from the Allocator series so far01:06:51 - Update on performanceResources discussed in this Episode:Hedge funds pull in another USD11.29bn in JanuaryCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

20 Maalis 20221h 9min

In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How different types of bonds are valuatedThe pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they beginWhy Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time)Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheetAlex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zeroHow your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful)The synchronisation of the central banks and how the future might look for the global financial market-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Alex on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:42 - Introduction to Alex and his background07:20 - How Alex think about bonds16:37 - Have bonds become more important since 2008?18:15 - Making decisions as a trader, and handling...

16 Maalis 20221h 1min

Jerry Parker joins me in today’s episode to discuss trend following as a robust guide to the markets in a world of instability and insecurity. We also discuss the recent short squeeze in nickel which has led to an unprecidented response from the LME, how to develop a trend following system, and what to do if you miss a breakout trade. We dive into when to trade index-based products vs. single stocks, how to manage trailing stops, and Jerry's decision to stop doing trend following research and rounding off our conversation with interesting and somewhat provocative tweets from Jerry. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Trend following and volatility in relation to the current situation in UkraineThe recent short squeeze in nickel trading and the reaction from the LMETips and tricks to grow as a trend followerHow to develop a good trend following systemHow to manage trailing stopsHow Jerry managed his short Russian stock positionWhat Jerry will focus on as he stops doing Trend Following Research-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:40 - Summary of the week08:03 - What happened this week with nickel trading14:53 - Q1, Josh: Any tips and tricks for Trend Following investing and ETFs?31:57 - Q2, William: How do you react following a missed breakout?37:11 - Q3, ABE: Is it wise to avoid Index-based products and how to trade CTA Index Futures? How do CTAs as an industry, become part of the...

12 Maalis 20221h 23min

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Chris Schelling, Chief Investment Strategist at Venturi Private Wealth and author of the book “Better Than Alpha”, to discuss asset allocation and how assets are managed in the private space vs institutional space, about disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard, the evolution of the industry over the years, the role of liquidity in asset allocation, the use of Alpha and Beta in investment, what it takes to be a skilled manager and the risk of manager selection.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How are assets managed in the private space vs institutional spaceBiases in asset allocation and how to overcome them.Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategiesDue diligence and things to avoid in the processThe risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Chris Schelling on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:23 - About Chris’s background and his role at Venturi12:45 - Disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard17:54 - How the industry has evolved over the...

9 Maalis 20221h 9min

Today Rob Carver joins me to discuss how the Trend Following world is reacting to the aweful situation in Ukraine and how it affects markets and volatility, discussing the moral aspects of trend following in times of crises and we take lots of questions from our community regarding how to handle parabolic market moves, if trend following is over-crowded, who we believe is the next David Harding, how to allocate to different speeds of Momentum/Trend Following as well as thoughts on rebalancing assets and portfolios and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How the aweful situation in Ukraine affects trend following and volatilityRebalancing strategies within your portfolioThe advantage of systematizing your tradingWhen I sat down with the founds of AHL at Abbey Road Studios-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:15 - Update on markets05:50 - What has caught attention and review on performance27:08 - Status on Rob’s book29:27 - Q1, Harry: What might next frontier be that seems silly today, but common sense later? Who's the next David Harding?34:04 - Q2, Ravi: What are the implications to the markets and the wider global economy?39:00 - Q3, Zoran: How do you navigate through such events (war in Ukraine) as a systematic investor?46:00 - Q4, Richard: If trend following ever became overcrowded, could you identify it and would you take any...

5 Maalis 20221h 25min

On today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Alan Higgins, the CIO and Chief Market Strategise of Coutts UK, also known as the Queens Bank, to discuss sound ways to invest in today’s environment, Alan’s interest at an early age in how to earn a risk premium, being a 60/40 investor and how the strategy will evolve, asset management vs. wealth management, distressed debt investing, behavioural biases, inflation, equity and interest rates, as well as the Yale Approach finishing off with some book recommendations on asset allocation and investing.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decadeThe surprise of markets ability to trendThe value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enoughInsights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel LawsonWhy this time feels differentLessons from the 1987 Crash-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Alan Higgins on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:05 - Alan’s background and current role04:44 - Risk premium and fixed income24:33 - Setbacks and drawdowns26:45 - Inflation35:06 - Interest rates, bonds and dividends43:22 - Asset allocation and portfolio construction46:18 - Alan’s role at Eighteen48 Partners48:33...

2 Maalis 20221h 3min

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the power of Trend Following during periods of heightened uncertainty, Trend Following applied to the ESG space, how endogenous price shocks cause longer-term trends, the new Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report, shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term, and how ‘buy the dip’ investors are likely unprepared for sustained underperformance in stocks.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Why now might be the best time to be invested in Trend Following strategiesHow systematic investing can be applied to the ESG spaceThe cause of longer-term price trendsThe Top Traders Monthly Trend Following reportThe best lookback period for Trend Following modelsThe need to diversify away from the ‘buy the dip’ mentality-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:49 – Macro recap from Niels06:40 – Weekly review of performance16:35 – Thoughts on Niels, Rich & Jerrys’ LinkedIn conversation with Harold De Boer of Transtrend23:16 – Q1; Frank : How do you see Trend Following strategies fitting into the ESG space?31:43 – Why we developed the Top Traders Monthly...

27 Helmi 20221h 23min