James Bullard on FAIT, Nominal GDP Targeting, and the Fed's Upcoming Framework Review

Eric Sims is the chair of the economics department at the University of Notre Dame and is a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank. Eric, along with his colleague, Cynthia Wu, have a number of recent papers addressing monetary policy in low interest rate environments, including a keynote paper presented this past summer at the Chicago Fed Conference that was part of the Fed's big review this year. He joins the show today to talk about this work, focusing on the latest developments in New Keynesian modelling and the current state of macroeconomic research. Specifically, David and Eric discuss the Four Equation New Keynesian Model, the Desirability of NGDP Targeting, and the welfare and cyclical implications of moderate trend inflation. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/eric-sims-new-keynesian-modelling-and-future-macroeconomics-low-interest-rate Eric's Notre Dame profile: https://www3.nd.edu/~esims1/ Eric's NBER archive: https://www.nber.org/people/eric_sims Related Links: *On the Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting* by Julio Garin, Robert Lester, & Eric Sims https://www.nber.org/papers/w21420 *The Four Equation New Keynesian Model* by Eric Sims & Jing Cynthia Wu https://www.nber.org/papers/w26067 *Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model* by Julio Garin, Robert Lester, & Eric Sims* https://www.nber.org/papers/w22177 *On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation* by Guido Ascari, Louis Phaneuf, & Eric Sims* https://www.nber.org/papers/w21392 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

13 Tammi 20201h

Peter Conti-Brown is an assistant professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution. Peter is also a historian and a legal scholar specializing in the study of the Federal Reserve and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins the show today to talk about his new paper, *Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance*. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the institutional history of the Federal Reserve Board, the lack of transparency in the Fed appointment process, and why we should consider raising Fed governor salaries in the future. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/01062020/peter-conti-brown-restoring-promise-federal-reserve-governance Peter's Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter's Wharton profile: https://lgst.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/petercb/ Related Links: *Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance* by Peter Conti-Brown https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/conti-brown-fed-governance-mercatus-working-paper-v1.pdf *John Williams May Be One of the Best Central Bankers – But That Doesn't Mean He Should Run the New York Fed* by Peter Conti-Brown https://www.brookings.edu/research/john-williams-may-be-one-of-the-best-central-bankers-but-that-doesnt-mean-he-should-run-the-new-york-fed/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

6 Tammi 202055min

Josh Galper is the managing principal of Finadium, an independent consultancy in capital markets based out of New York City. He joins the show today as part of a two week special on the Fed and repo markets, as he helps us take a look at recent repo market stress from the private sector. Specifically, David and Josh discuss the current state of US repo markets, key bottlenecks that have arisen in 2019, and a balanced proposal to restoring stability in capital markets. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12232019/josh-galper-current-state-repo-markets-key-bottlenecks-and-balanced Josh's Twitter: @Finadium Josh's Finadium profile: https://finadium.com/josh-galper-mba/ Related Links: Finadium's homepage: http://finadium.com Finadium's magazine: http://securitiesfinancemonitor.com *US Repo at Year-End 2019: The Hard Choices Ahead* by Josh Galper https://finadium.com/finadium-us-repo-at-year-end-2019-the-hard-choices-ahead/ *Are New Repo Participants Gaining Ground?* by Adam Copeland, Ira Selig, & Anya Tarascina https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/04/are-new-repo-participants-gaining-ground.html Repo week episode one: *George Selgin on Repo Market Stress, Fed Balance Sheet Volatility, and a Standing Repo Facility* https://macromusings.libsyn.com/george-selgin-on-repo-market-stress-fed-balance-sheet-volatility-and-a-standing-repo-facility David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

23 Joulu 201953min

George Selgin is the director of the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a returning guest to the Macro Musings podcast. He joins the show today as part of a two week special on the Fed and repo markets, as he helps us take a look at recent repo market stress from the Fed's perspective. Specifically, David and George discuss the basics of the Fed's balance sheet, the problematic nature of the Treasury General Account and foreign repo pools, and how George would tweak standing repo facility proposals to more directly address balance sheet volatility. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12162019/george-selgin-repo-market-stress-fed-balance-sheet-volatility-and-standing George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin Related Links: *Stop the Presses! Or, How the Fed Can Avoid Reserve Shortages without Bulking-Up, Part 1* by George Selgin https://www.alt-m.org/2019/11/12/dtop-the-presses-or-how-the-fed-can-avoid-reserve-shortages-without-bulking-up-part-1/ *Stop the Presses! Or, How the Fed Can Avoid Reserve Shortages without Bulking-Up, Part 2* by George Selgin https://www.alt-m.org/2019/11/14/stop-the-presses-or-how-the-fed-can-avoid-reserve-shortages-without-bulking-up-part-2/ David's Twitter thread on George's proposal: https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1202364853480017920 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

16 Joulu 201958min

Robert Samuelson is an economics columnist for the Washington Post and spent several decades working at Newsweek, where he wrote on various economic topics. Robert is the author of several books, including *The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement* and *The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence*. He joins the show today to talk about the latter and its implications for today. David and Robert go in-depth about the Great Inflation, as they discuss the disagreement within macroeconomics during the 60s and 70s, the history and significance of the period, and how Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker sought to end the inflation. Tributes to Paul Volcker: *Remembering Paul Volcker, The Man Who Tamed Inflation* by Scott Sumner https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/473963-remembering-paul-volcker-the-man-who-tamed-inflation *Paul Volcker's Legacy* by Scott Sumner https://www.econlib.org/paul-volckers-legacy/ *How Paul Volcker Beat Inflation and Saved an Independent Fed* by Roger Lowenstein https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-paul-volcker-beat-inflation-and-saved-an-independent-fed/2019/12/10/7e58d7ae-1b64-11ea-87f7-f2e91143c60d_story.html *Paul Volcker Was Inflation's Worst Enemy* by John Taylor https://www.wsj.com/articles/paul-volcker-was-inflations-worst-enemy-11575937617 *Paul A. Volcker, Fed Chairman Who Waged War on Inflation, Is Dead at 92* by Binyamin Appelbaum and Robert D. Hershey Jr. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/09/business/paul-a-volcker-dead.html Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12112019/robert-samuelson-paul-volcker-and-great-inflation Robert's Washington Post profile & bio: https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/robert-j-samuelson/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6e300b47761d Related Links: *The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence* by Robert J. Samuelson https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/160295/the-great-inflation-and-its-aftermath-by-robert-j-samuelson/9780812980042/ *The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement* by Robert J. Samuelson https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/160294/the-good-life-and-its-discontents-by-robert-samuelson/9780679781523/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

11 Joulu 201957min

Jim Bianco is the president of Bianco Research, a provider of data-driven insights into the global economy and financial markets, and is also a columnist for Bloomberg. Jim has 30-plus years of experience on Wall Street, and he joins the show today to talk about Fed policy, negative interest rates, and inflation. David and Jim also discuss the possibility of extending the yield curve, the Fed's recent forays into the repo market, and what low interest rates mean for the economy moving forward. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12092019/jim-bianco-negative-interest-rates-low-inflation-and-yield-curve-expansion Jim's Twitter: @biancoresearch Jim's Bloomberg profile: https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ABvwE0aTOvg/jim-bianco Related Links: *A History of Interest Rates* by Dick Sylla and Sidney Homer https://www.wiley.com/en-us/A+History+of+Interest+Rates%2C+4th+Edition-p-9780471732839 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

9 Joulu 201959min

Claudia Sahm is the director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and was formerly at the Board of Governors as a section chief in the Consumer Community Affairs Division as well as serving on the staff macro forecast. Claudia specializes in macroeconomics and household finance, and she joins the show today to talk about some of her work. David and Claudia also discuss her experience working at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the conception of the Sahm Rule, and the importance of big data for economic research and policymaking. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12022019/claudia-sahm-sahm-rule-and-using-big-data-inform-policymaking Claudia's Twitter: @Claudia_Sahm Claudia's Equitable Growth profile: https://equitablegrowth.org/people/claudia-sahm/ Related Links: *Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy* by the Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/multi-chapter-report/recession-ready-fiscal-policies-to-stabilize-the-american-economy/ *Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals* by Claudia Sahm https://www.brookings.edu/research/direct-stimulus-payments-to-individuals/ *Are We in a Recession? Experts Agree: Ask Claudia Sahm* by Kate Davidson https://www.wsj.com/articles/are-we-in-a-recession-experts-agree-ask-claudia-sahm-11572789602 *From Transactions Data to Economic Statistics: Constructing Real-Time, High-Frequency, Geographic Measures of Consumer Spending* by Aditya Aladangady, Shifrah Aron-Dine, Wendy Dunn, Laura Feiveson, Paul Lengermann, and Claudia Sahm https://www.nber.org/chapters/c14267 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

2 Joulu 201957min

Carola Binder is an assistant professor of economics at Haverford College and is an associate editor of the Journal of Money, Credit, and Central Banking. Carola is also a member of the CEPR Research and Policy Network on Central Bank Communication, and joins the show today to discuss her work on central banking and populism. David and Carola also discuss the link between central bank credibility and popularity, the twin deficits of central banking, and why NGDP targeting could be an easy transition point from current inflation targeting regimes. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11252019/carola-binder-political-pressure-and-twin-deficits-central-banking Carola's Twitter: @cconces Carola's blog: https://carolabinder.blogspot.com/ Related Links: *Political Pressure on Central Banks* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3244148 *Whose Expectations Augment the Phillips Curve?* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2789750 *Federal Reserve Communication and the Media* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2835574 *Comment on "Central Bank Accouncements: Big News for Little People" by Michael Lalma and Dmitri Vinogradov* by Carola Binder https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304393219301461 *We Asked Fed Watchers to Rate the Fed's Communications – Here's What We Found* by Peter Olson and David Wessel https://www.brookings.edu/research/we-asked-fed-watchers-to-rate-the-feds-communications/ *The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target* by Kenneth Rogoff https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/51_qje85.pdf David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

25 Marras 201955min