Election Forecasts Are NOT Polls But Are Valuable
Poll Hub30 Syys 2022

Election Forecasts Are NOT Polls But Are Valuable

Our battleground state polling continues, as we take a look at Arizona and Pennsylvania. In one way, little has changed in Arizona since the nail-biting 2020 results, as the Governor's race is nearly dead even. But what is different is what appears to be ticket splitters giving the Senate contest a very different look. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is looking pretty solidly blue, as Democratic candidates in both races lead with considerable margins. We have looked through the data to understand what groups in each state are driving the divergent results.

Next, it's all about predicting the future as we focus on polls and forecasts. We're joined by Data Editor for The Economist (@TheEconomist), Dan Rosenheck (@DanRosenheck), who easily switches between detailed explanations of how he's built the publication's election forecast model for the midterms to why so many people misunderstand how forecasts differ dramatically from polls. And, he gives the odds on Aaron Judge beating Roger Maris's record.

Finally, let's face the (fun) facts- growing old is a part of the road trip of life, but where will you end up? Do people retire to the place they want to or the place that just makes sense?

Tämä jakso on lisätty Podme-palveluun avoimen RSS-syötteen kautta eikä se ole Podmen omaa tuotantoa. Siksi jakso saattaa sisältää mainontaa.

Jaksot(468)

Will the Cornell Case Lead to Real Changes

Will the Cornell Case Lead to Real Changes

We return to Texas and Iowa with our second round of Marist Polls this election season. With Election Day just weeks away, the key races look much as they did in September. In Texas, Democrat James Ta...

15 Loka 36min

Boomer Retirement Surprises

Boomer Retirement Surprises

We've been doing a lot of polling lately, and our latest batch hits close to home! We polled voters in New York and Maine to find out what they're thinking and for whom they might vote. We dig into th...

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Midwest Midterm Matchup

Midwest Midterm Matchup

Ohio and Michigan are two states to watch in this year's midterm elections. We break down our latest Marist Poll numbers in both states, including the contests for U.S. Senate in Ohio and Michigan as ...

1 Loka 29min

Could These Red States Really Turn Blue?

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24 Syys 33min

Killer AI Goes Mainstream

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This time on Poll Hub, we’re devoting the episode to one topic that has, over the course of about a week, taken over the minds of Americans: Killer AI.Although prominent experts have been warning abou...

18 Syys 37min

Blame Canada? How Trump's Trade War Could Impact the Midterms

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President Trump's latest trade war, this one with Canada, has sparked big tariffs, rising costs, and the possibility of electoral backlash in several states that will determine whether Democrats or Re...

10 Syys 33min

Flock Cameras: The Next Surprise Election Issue

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Flock cameras are becoming an unexpected political issue, with Americans increasingly divided over the balance between public safety and privacy. We look at new polling on automated license-plate read...

4 Syys 33min

Problem Polls, Billionaires, and One Big Goodbye

Problem Polls, Billionaires, and One Big Goodbye

Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary delivered one of the biggest polling misses of the cycle. The final Marquette Law School Poll had Francesca Hong well ahead of the field, while eventual wi...

28 Elo 37min

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