285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

Being rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, Silver examines a set of traits characterizing people who welcome risks.

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Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/08/12/285-nate-silver-on-prediction-risk-and-rationality/

Nate Silver received a B.A. in economics from the University of Chicago. He worked as a baseball analyst, developing the PECOTA statistical system (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). He later founded the FiveThirtyEight political polling analysis site. His first book, The Signal and the Noise, was awarded the Phi Beta Kappa Society Book Award in Science. He is the co-host (with Maria Konnikova) of the Risky Business podcast.


Jaksot(416)

230 | Raphaël Millière on How Artificial Intelligence Thinks

230 | Raphaël Millière on How Artificial Intelligence Thinks

Welcome to another episode of Sean Carroll's Mindscape. Today, we're joined by Raphaël Millière, a philosopher and cognitive scientist at Columbia University. We'll be exploring the fascinating topic ...

20 Maalis 20231h 57min

229 | Nita Farahany on Ethics, Law, and Neurotechnology

229 | Nita Farahany on Ethics, Law, and Neurotechnology

Every time our brain does some thinking, there are associated physical processes. In particular, electric currents and charged particles jump between neurons, creating associated electromagnetic field...

13 Maalis 20231h 12min

AMA | March 2023

AMA | March 2023

Welcome to the March 2023 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Patre...

6 Maalis 20233h 1min

228 | Skye Cleary on Existentialism and Authenticity

228 | Skye Cleary on Existentialism and Authenticity

God is dead, as Nietzsche's madman memorably reminded us. So what are we going to do about it? If there is no powerful force out there to guide us and give meaning to our lives, how are we supposed to...

27 Helmi 20231h 16min

227 | Molly Crockett on the Psychology of Morality

227 | Molly Crockett on the Psychology of Morality

Most of us strive to be good, moral people. When we are doing that striving, what is happening in our brains? Some of our moral inclinations seem pretty automatic and subconscious. Other times we have...

20 Helmi 20231h 11min

226 | Johanna Hoffman on Speculative Futures of Cities

226 | Johanna Hoffman on Speculative Futures of Cities

Cities are incredibly important to modern life, and their importance is only growing. As Geoffrey West points out, the world is adding urban areas equivalent to the population of San Francisco once ev...

13 Helmi 20231h 12min

AMA | February 2023

AMA | February 2023

Welcome to the February 2023 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Pa...

6 Helmi 20233h 7min

225 | Michael Tomasello on The Social Origins of Cognition and Agency

225 | Michael Tomasello on The Social Origins of Cognition and Agency

Human beings have developed wondrous capacities to take in information about the world, mull it over, think about a suite of future implications, and decide on a course of action based on those delibe...

30 Tammi 20231h 22min

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