022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

The problem with sorting out failures and successes is that failures are often muted, destroyed, or somehow removed from view while successes are left behind, weighting your decisions and perceptions, tilting your view of the world. That means to be successful you must learn how to seek out what is missing. You must learn what not to do. Unfortunately, survivorship bias stands between you and the epiphanies you seek.



To learn how to combat this pernicious bias, we explore the story of Abraham Wald and the Department of War Math founded during World War II, and then we interview Wald's modern-day counterpart, Megan Price, statistician and director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who explains how she uses math and statistics to save lives and improve conditions in areas of the world suffering from the effects of war.

Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart


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Jaksot(335)

178 - Behind the Curve (rebroadcast)

178 - Behind the Curve (rebroadcast)

In this episode, we sit down with the director and producers of the documentary film, Behind the Curve, an exploration of motivated reasoning and conspiratorial thinking told through the lives of peop...

19 Huhti 20201h 21min

177 - COVID - 19

177 - COVID - 19

Flatten the curve.That idea has spread through the population faster than COVID-19 ever could.That’s the power of culture, of human psychology, of brains interacting with brains. Of course, culture an...

5 Huhti 20202h 2min

176 - Socks and Crocs - Part Two

176 - Socks and Crocs - Part Two

Priors are what neuroscientists and philosophers call the years of experience and regularity leading up to the present. All the ways a ball has bounced, all the ways a pancake has tasted, the way the ...

26 Maalis 20201h 7min

175 - Socks And Crocs - Part One

175 - Socks And Crocs - Part One

Back in 2015, before Brexit, before Clinton vs. Trump, before weaponized Macedonian internet trolls, one NPR affiliate called The Dress, “The debate that broke the internet,” and The Washington Post r...

8 Maalis 202036min

174 - Bad Advice - Paul Offit (rebroadcast)

174 - Bad Advice - Paul Offit (rebroadcast)

In this episode, we sit down with vaccine expert Dr. Paul Offit to discuss his new book, Bad Advice or Why Celebrities, Politicians, and Activists Aren't Your Best Source of Health Information.Offit h...

24 Helmi 20201h 7min

173 - Rule Makers, Rule Breakers - Michele Gelfand

173 - Rule Makers, Rule Breakers - Michele Gelfand

In this episode, we sit down with psychologist Michele Gelfand and discuss her new book: Rule Makers, Rule Breakers: How Tight and Loose Cultures Wire Our World.In the book, Gelfand presents her resea...

10 Helmi 20201h 13min

172 - Team Human - Douglas Rushkoff (rebroadcast)

172 - Team Human - Douglas Rushkoff (rebroadcast)

In this episode of the You Are Not So Smart Podcast we sit down with one of the original cyberpunks, the famed journalist, documentarian, media theorist, all-around technology superstar and weirdo, Do...

27 Tammi 20201h 11min

171 - Partisan Brains

171 - Partisan Brains

Jay Van Bavel studies “from neurons to social networks...how collective concerns -- group identities, moral values, and political beliefs -- shape the mind and brain,” and in this episode we travel to...

13 Tammi 20201h 27min

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