How much does a vote matter? (Article)

How much does a vote matter? (Article)

Today’s release is the latest in our series of audio versions of our articles.

In this one — How much does a vote matter? — I investigate the two key things that determine the impact of your vote:

• The chances of your vote changing an election’s outcome
• How much better some candidates are for the world as a whole, compared to others

I then discuss what I think are the best arguments against voting in important elections:

• If an election is competitive, that means other people disagree about which option is better, and you’re at some risk of voting for the worse candidate by mistake.
• While voting itself doesn’t take long, knowing enough to accurately pick which candidate is better for the world actually does take substantial effort — effort that could be better allocated elsewhere.

Finally, I look into the impact of donating to campaigns or working to ‘get out the vote’, which can be effective ways to generate additional votes for your preferred candidate.

If you want to check out the links, footnotes and figures in today’s article, you can find those here.

Get this episode by subscribing: type 80,000 Hours into your podcasting app. Or read the linked transcript.

Producer: Keiran Harris.

Jaksot(324)

#219 – Toby Ord on graphs AI companies would prefer you didn't (fully) understand

#219 – Toby Ord on graphs AI companies would prefer you didn't (fully) understand

The era of making AI smarter just by making it bigger is ending. But that doesn’t mean progress is slowing down — far from it. AI models continue to get much more powerful, just using very different m...

24 Kesä 20252h 48min

#218 – Hugh White on why Trump is abandoning US hegemony – and that’s probably good

#218 – Hugh White on why Trump is abandoning US hegemony – and that’s probably good

For decades, US allies have slept soundly under the protection of America’s overwhelming military might. Donald Trump — with his threats to ditch NATO, seize Greenland, and abandon Taiwan — seems hell...

12 Kesä 20252h 48min

#217 – Beth Barnes on the most important graph in AI right now — and the 7-month rule that governs its progress

#217 – Beth Barnes on the most important graph in AI right now — and the 7-month rule that governs its progress

AI models today have a 50% chance of successfully completing a task that would take an expert human one hour. Seven months ago, that number was roughly 30 minutes — and seven months before that, 15 mi...

2 Kesä 20253h 47min

Beyond human minds: The bewildering frontier of consciousness in insects, AI, and more

Beyond human minds: The bewildering frontier of consciousness in insects, AI, and more

What if there’s something it’s like to be a shrimp — or a chatbot?For centuries, humans have debated the nature of consciousness, often placing ourselves at the very top. But what about the minds of o...

23 Touko 20253h 34min

Don’t believe OpenAI’s “nonprofit” spin (emergency pod with Tyler Whitmer)

Don’t believe OpenAI’s “nonprofit” spin (emergency pod with Tyler Whitmer)

OpenAI’s recent announcement that its nonprofit would “retain control” of its for-profit business sounds reassuring. But this seemingly major concession, celebrated by so many, is in itself largely me...

15 Touko 20251h 12min

The case for and against AGI by 2030 (article by Benjamin Todd)

The case for and against AGI by 2030 (article by Benjamin Todd)

More and more people have been saying that we might have AGI (artificial general intelligence) before 2030. Is that really plausible? This article by Benjamin Todd looks into the cases for and against...

12 Touko 20251h

Emergency pod: Did OpenAI give up, or is this just a new trap? (with Rose Chan Loui)

Emergency pod: Did OpenAI give up, or is this just a new trap? (with Rose Chan Loui)

When attorneys general intervene in corporate affairs, it usually means something has gone seriously wrong. In OpenAI’s case, it appears to have forced a dramatic reversal of the company’s plans to si...

8 Touko 20251h 2min

#216 – Ian Dunt on why governments in Britain and elsewhere can't get anything done – and how to fix it

#216 – Ian Dunt on why governments in Britain and elsewhere can't get anything done – and how to fix it

When you have a system where ministers almost never understand their portfolios, civil servants change jobs every few months, and MPs don't grasp parliamentary procedure even after decades in office —...

2 Touko 20253h 14min

Suosittua kategoriassa Koulutus

rss-murhan-anatomia
voi-hyvin-meditaatiot-2
rss-narsisti
psykopodiaa-podcast
adhd-podi
rss-vapaudu-voimaasi
rss-niinku-asia-on
psykologia
rss-duodecim-lehti
rss-valo-minussa-2
aamukahvilla
rss-uskonto-on-tylsaa
kesken
koulu-podcast-2
rss-liian-kuuma-peruna
rahapuhetta
jari-sarasvuo-podcast
filocast-filosofian-perusteet
rss-turun-yliopisto
rss-opi-espanjaa