ECB steps up stimulus but is it enough?
The European Central Bank is stepping up the pace of asset purchases in response to rising bonds yields, which have threatened to undermine the eurozone’s economic recovery. German bund yields rose to the highest level in a year last month while French 10-year bond yields climbed above zero for the first time since June. Eurozone bond markets have been tracking a rise in US Treasury yields on worries about higher inflation. But the ECB’s actions on Thursday prompted a rally in bonds, pushing yields lower. So has the bank done enough? In this podcast, ING’s Senior Rates Strategist Antoine Bouvet discusses the central bank's next move and the outlook for market interest rates in the months ahead.
11 Maalis 202112min
Dear Prudence
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak is going where few finance ministers have gone before in the Covid-19 pandemic, announcing future tax hikes to pay for relief measures. Those measures, which were extended in Wednesday’s Budget, have pushed government borrowing to record levels. Without corrective action, Sunak said, underlying debt would rise indefinitely. And while borrowing costs are affordable now, he pointed to the recent rise in UK Gilt yields as evidence this may not be the case forever. In this podcast, ING’s Developed Markets Economist James Smith discusses whether Sunak is right to be focusing on the deficit, whether the new support measures will be effective and when the UK economy will start to recover.
3 Maalis 202114min
Gauging the ‘taper tantrum’ fallout
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a message to nervous bond markets this week: calm down. But are traders and investors listening? 10-year Treasury yields have continued their march higher on hopes for an economic recovery, sparking concern that the move could eventually spiral into a so-called 'taper tantrum' similar to that seen in 2013. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses the prospect of a further sharp sell-off in bonds and the implications for global markets.
24 Helmi 20219min
The rise and fall of voluntary social distancing
In economic terms, the second wave of the pandemic in Europe has been less severe than the first. Official lockdowns have been less harsh and more targeted, according to EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. But new ING research shows that other forces may be at work as well, including lower levels of voluntary social distancing. In this podcast, ING's Bert Colijn discusses whether the trend will continue in the face of new mutations and a relatively slow vaccine rollout.
18 Helmi 20219min
Inflation Blues
It gave B.B. King the blues. And Larry Summers is getting worried about it, too. Inflation in the US is set to rise in the coming months, fuelled by an economic reawakening and massive fiscal stimulus. Will the Federal Reserve be forced to respond? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley takes a look.
10 Helmi 202113min
Emerging markets' vaccine challenge
The World Health Organization says vaccine hoarding would be a catastrophic moral failure that would keep the pandemic burning and result in a very slow global economic recovery. Yet many emerging markets still find themselves at the back of the vaccine queue, heaping further pressure on countries that are already suffering from high debt levels, soaring unemployment and growing social unrest. Until now, investors have been relatively unfazed by these risks, pouring billions into emerging market bonds and driving credit spreads close to record lows. But will that continue? ING's Sovereign Debt Strategist Trieu Pham discusses.
4 Helmi 202112min
Risky business: Credit markets are 'very expensive'
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that the Bank is monitoring the corporate bond market, where spreads have narrowed to levels seen before the pandemic and yields on some of the riskiest debt are trading near historic lows. In this podcast, ING’s Jeroen van den Broek says the market is ‘very expensive’ and investors are underestimating the level of risk.
29 Tammi 202110min
'21 is going to be a good year (for commodities)
Optimism surrounding the Covid vaccine coupled with a crude oil production cut from Saudi Arabia have lifted the price of Brent by about 7% since the start of the year, adding to a 25% surge in the last three months of 2020. But with many economies still in full lockdown, demand for oil is expected to be weak over the next few months while higher prices could encourage some producers to pump more than agreed. So are the gains justified or has the rally gone too far? And how will the rest of the commodities complex perform this year? Warren Patterson, ING’s Head of Commodities Strategy in Singapore, shares his thoughts.
18 Tammi 202111min
