GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?

07:29 - Signs of weakness?

09:31 - The key indicators of weakness

12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?

15:26 - Assessing the savings rate

17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy

20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?

22:00 - Challenges in the banking system

24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind...

Jaksot(907)

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerp...

13 Syys 202555min

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a differ...

10 Syys 20251h 4min

SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert

SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert

What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic ...

6 Syys 20251h 11min

IL41: They’re Not Just Reading You... They’re Rewriting You ft. Sandra Matz

IL41: They’re Not Just Reading You... They’re Rewriting You ft. Sandra Matz

What if knowing you isn’t the end goal... but shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces...

3 Syys 20251h

SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas

SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas

As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how spee...

30 Elo 20251h

OI18: The Carbon Trade, Without the Illusion ft. Mike Azlen

OI18: The Carbon Trade, Without the Illusion ft. Mike Azlen

Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated mark...

27 Elo 202547min

SI362: The Alpha Most Systems Miss ft. Yoav Git

SI362: The Alpha Most Systems Miss ft. Yoav Git

Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizon...

23 Elo 20251h 7min

GM86: Everyone’s Watching the Fed. The Real Story’s Somewhere Else. ft. Louis Vincent-Gave

GM86: Everyone’s Watching the Fed. The Real Story’s Somewhere Else. ft. Louis Vincent-Gave

Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum al...

20 Elo 202559min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahapodi
pomojen-suusta
rss-rahamania
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
juristipodi
rss-myyntikoulu
rss-seuraava-potilas
rss-draivi
sijoitusovi-podcast
rss-lahtijat
rss-startup-ministerio
herrasmieshakkerit
rahapuhetta
bakkari-tarinoita-tapahtumien-takahuoneista
lakicast
rss-h-asselmoilanen
rss-turha-edes-yrittaa