World on Fire, Part 2: Global Conflict Has Surged to an 80-Year High. Why?

Today’s episode is about the question of the moment in politics: the meaning of Joe Biden’s terrible polling numbers. Today’s guest is Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at the New York Times, where he does public opinion, polling, demographics, and politics. We talk about the notorious New York Times poll that showed Donald Trump trouncing Biden in the swing states. We talk about why it’s not crazy to take presidential polls seriously right now—even though we're 300 days out from the election. We talk about the multi-layered problems of Biden’s age. And we talk about why the new "engagement gap" might be the most important, under-discussed phenomenon in American politics today. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com.  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nate Cohn Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Marras 202350min

Today’s episode is about thinking practically about the AI revolution. Yes, it may one day usher in some now unthinkable utopia or dystopia. But in the meantime, our imperfect world exists, and your imperfect job exists, and you face a forced choice: Should you use this technology? And if so, how do you make it work for you? Kevin Roose, a tech columnist for The New York Times and the host of the podcast 'Hard Fork,' talks about how generative AI tools are already changing his job and others, including in medicine, consulting, and software development. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com.  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kevin Roose Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Marras 20231h

Morgan Housel, the author of 'The Psychology of Money' and a partner at Collab Fund, talks about his new book, 'Same as Ever,' on the virtues of ancient truths in a world where everything seems to be changing. We also talk about why so many successful people are miserable, why great ideas don't scale, the difference between happiness and contentment, the wisdom of a Snickers bar, the downsides of fully optimized culture, and how to write. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com.  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Morgan Housel Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Marras 20231h 4min

In the last few weeks, our coverage of this conflict has tried very hard to see the problem from as many angles as possible. In our first episode, we considered the political motivations of Hamas’s October 7 attack. In our second episode, we considered the behavior of Israel’s government from a critical perspective. In a third episode, we asked whether Israel’s military objectives made sense by speaking to a counter-terrorism expert. And last week, we told the 150-year history of Israel, Palestine, and the origins of Hamas by speaking to two historians, one who was clearly more sympathetic to Israel and another who was clearly more sympathetic to Palestine. There is a voice we haven’t heard from in this series: a Palestinian voice. Today’s interview is with Sally Abed, a Palestinian-Israeli, who is an activist with the group Standing Together. We talk about the "psychosis" and "impossibility" of being Palestinian in Israel, what happens after a ceasefire, and how to build a coalition for peace. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Sally Abed Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Marras 202350min

One year ago, it was a matter of conventional wisdom among experts that the U.S. was on the brink of a recession. They were wrong. The latest GDP report showed America’s real output growing at a 4.9 percent annualized rate. That's huge. But just as we zagged a year ago, when we criticized recession predictions, I want to zag again today. It is a matter of broad conventional wisdom that the U.S. economy right now is doing really well. And, for now, it is. But challenges abound, including "higher-for-longer" interest rates, a recession in the apartment construction market, and ongoing global mayhem. Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen counts the five biggest risks to economic growth in the next year—and makes his official economic prediction for 2024. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com.  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Conor Sen Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Marras 202337min

The eminent Israeli historian Benny Morris walks us through the origins of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, from antiquity to October 7. And the excellent historian of Palestine, Zachary Foster, digs into the often misunderstood history of the rise of Hamas. Finally, both share their thoughts on Israel's military response, the future of the conflict, and the "missing moderate middle" on both sides. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com.  Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Benny Morris & Zachary Foster Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

31 Loka 20231h 8min

Today, we’re taking a break from war to talk about the science of human potential and a new book on that subject from the psychologist and bestselling author Adam Grant. In 'Hidden Potential,' Grant shares stories and studies across sports, religious history, coaching, and economics to explain why we're bad at cultivating our own potential and identifying ability in others. We talk about education and affirmative action, scouting quarterbacks, coaching Steph Curry, and, for reasons that will soon become apparent, the spread of Protestantism. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com.  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Adam Grant Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Loka 202344min

Two things seem true: First, Israel has a profound moral right to defend itself from terrorism. Second, its current strategy could kill thousands of civilians, destroy its international reputation, breed even more terrorist cells, and obliterate any chance for peace in our lifetime. Is it possible to keep both ideas in our head? Today's guest is Georgetown University professor Daniel Byman, one of the world's leading researchers on terrorism, counterterrorism, and Israel’s military. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com.  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Daniel Byman Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

24 Loka 202341min