Stephen Miran on Activist Treasury Issuance and the Monetary Policy Implications of a Second Trump Term

Stephen Miran on Activist Treasury Issuance and the Monetary Policy Implications of a Second Trump Term

Stephen Miran is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Stephen is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled, *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy,* as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidential term would mean for the Fed and financial markets.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Stephen’s Twitter: @SteveMiran

Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

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Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

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Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy* by Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini

*Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar But Wall Street Doubts He’ll Get One* by Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson

*Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:49) – Breaking Down *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy*

(00:21:33) – Responding to Criticism from Janet Yellen and Others

(00:28:21) – Addressing Trump’s Push for a Weaker Dollar

(00:38:24) – Can We Weaken the Dollar While Still Ensuring Its Use?

(00:43:07) – What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Fed Independence and Crypto

(00:49:19) – Outro

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Robert McCauley on Bond Market Crises and the International Lender of Last Resort

Robert McCauley on Bond Market Crises and the International Lender of Last Resort

Robert McCauley is a senior fellow at the Global Development Policy Center at Boston University, an Associate Member of the Faculty of History at the University of Oxford, and was formerly at the Bank of International Settlements for 25 years and the New York Federal Reserve Bank for 14 years. Robert is also a returning guest to the show, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about his recent article titled, *Bond Market Crisis and the International Lender of Last Resort* David and Robert also discuss the basics of a bond market run, the policy reaction and implications of the 2020 “Dash for Cash”, the possible concerns with corporate bond facilities, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Register now for the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference!   Robert’s Boston University profile Robert’s BIS archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Bond Market Crises and the International Lender of Last Resort* by Robert McCauley    *Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 8th Edition* by Robert Aliber, Charles Kindleberger and Robert McCauley   *Robert McCauley on the Global Domain of the Dollar and Threats to its Dominance* by the Macro Musings Podcast

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Joe Gagnon on Inflation Progress and the Path Ahead: Breaking Down Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Joe Gagnon on Inflation Progress and the Path Ahead: Breaking Down Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Joe Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and was formerly a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Joe is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Specifically, Joe and David talk about the future direction of r star, what current inflationary trends mean for the Phillips curve, the Fed’s commitment to a two percent inflation target, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Register now for the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference!   Joe’s Twitter: @GagnonMacro Joe’s PIIE profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve Around the World* by Joe Gagnon, Kristin Forbes, and Christopher Collins   *Fed Chair Powell’s Message in Jackson Hole: Two Means Two* by David Wilcox   *Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over* by Nick Timiraos

11 Syys 202358min

Nicholas Anthony on the Current Prospects and Legislative Developments Surrounding CBDC

Nicholas Anthony on the Current Prospects and Legislative Developments Surrounding CBDC

Nicholas Anthony is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and works on issues relating to financial privacy, cryptocurrencies, and the use of money in society. Nicholas joins Macro Musings to talk about central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the recent developments surrounding CBDCs at the Fed and in Congress. Specifically, David and Nicholas discuss the arguments for and against CBDCs, the preemptive, behavioral, and punitive applications of these currencies, who would benefit from the development of CBDCs, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Nicholas’s Twitter @EconWithNick Nicholas’s Cato Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Central Bank Digital Currency: Assessing the Risks and Dispelling the Myths* by Nicholas Anthony and Norbert Michel   *CBDC Legislation Recap* by Nicholas Anthony   *House Hearing and FOIA Reveals Fed’s Stance on CBDC* by Nicholas Anthony   *The Fed’s Questionable CBDC Campaign* by Nicholas Anthony   *Who Really Benefits from CBDCs? It’s Not the Public* by Nicholas Anthony and Norbert Michel   *Questions of CBDC Cronyism Emerge as Fed Launches Pilot* by Nicholas Anthony   *Nigerians’ Rejection of Their CBDC is a Cautionary Tale for Other Countries* by Nicholas Anthony   *Nigeria’s CBDC Was Not Chosen. It Was Forced* by Nicholas Anthony   *The Risks of CBDCs: Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Shouldn’t Be Adopted* by Norbert Michel and Nicholas Anthony   *The Digital Euro: A Solution Seeking a Problem?* by Martin Arnold and Sam Fleming

4 Syys 202358min

John Coates on *The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything*

John Coates on *The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything*

John Coates is a professor of law and economics and the deputy dean of the Harvard Law School. John is also the author of a new book titled, *The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything,* and he joins Macro Musings to talk about it. David and John also discuss the basics and beginnings of index funds, how they may undermine capitalism, the issues with private equity, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   John’s Harvard Law School profile John’s publications archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything* by John Coates   *House Republicans Probe BlackRock, Vanguard on Their ESG Policies* by Steven Dennis   *BlackRock Offers a Vote to Retail Investors in its Biggest ETF* by Brooke Masters

28 Elo 20231h 1min

Zac Gross on the Past, Present, and Future of Australian Monetary Policy

Zac Gross on the Past, Present, and Future of Australian Monetary Policy

Zac Gross is a senior lecturer at Monash University and was formerly an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Zac joins Macro Musings to talk about the Australian central bank and the recent review of its framework. Specifically, David and Zac also break down Australian monetary policy over the past few decades, the RBA’s yield curve control experiment, the future of its operating system, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Zac’s Twitter: @ZacGross Zac’s website Zac’s Substack   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Assessing Australian Monetary Policy in the Twenty-First Century* By Isaac Gross and Andrew Leigh   *An RBA Fit for the Future* by Gordon de Brouwer, Renee Fry-McKibbin, and Carolyn Wilkins

21 Elo 202357min

Larry White on Gold, Fiat, and Bitcoin: Determining the Ideal Monetary Standard

Larry White on Gold, Fiat, and Bitcoin: Determining the Ideal Monetary Standard

Larry White is a professor of economics at George Mason University and is the author of a new book titled, *Better Money: Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin?* Larry is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to discuss this book and the comparison among those monetary standards. David and Larry specifically discuss the bottom-up vs. top-down theories of money, the basics and functionality of a gold, bitcoin, and fiat standards, the future of money, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Larry’s Twitter: @lawrencehwhite1 Larry’s Mercatus profile Larry’s GMU profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Better Money: Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin?* by Lawrence White   *Larry White on Stablecoins, Money Market Funds, and the History of Free Banking* by Macro Musings

14 Elo 20231h 5min

Ricardo Reis on the Macroeconomics of Financial Crises and the Recent Inflation Surge

Ricardo Reis on the Macroeconomics of Financial Crises and the Recent Inflation Surge

Ricardo Reis is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is the co-author of a new book titled, *A Crash Course on Crises: Macroeconomic Concepts for Run-ups, Collapses, and Recoveries.* Ricardo is also a previous guest of Macro Musings and he rejoins the podcast to talk about his new book as well as his overall assessment of the inflation surge of the past few years. David and Ricardo specifically discuss what constitutes a bubble, the Eurozone crisis as a story of capital inflows and misallocation, shadow banking and systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis, Ricardo’s view of the Phillips curve, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Ricardo’s Twitter: @R2Rsquared Ricardo’s LSE profile Ricardo’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   *A Crash Course on Crises: Macroeconomic Concepts for Run-Ups, Collapses, and Recoveries* by Ricardo Reis and Markus Brunnermeier   *Ricardo Reis on Central Bank Swap Lines, Fiscal Sustainability, and Outlooks for Inflation* by Macro Musings

7 Elo 20231h 1min

Macro Lit Review 4: Highlights from Mid-2023 with George Selgin

Macro Lit Review 4: Highlights from Mid-2023 with George Selgin

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest on Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about some of the recent developments in the monetary and financial policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss the history and present developments surrounding FedNow, the future of real-time payments, how to revise the Fed’s operating system, whether the Fed is currently delivering on a soft landing, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George Cato Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings   *Getting Up From the Floor* by Claudio Borio   *Opening a Federal Reserve Account* by Julie Hill   *From Cannabis to Crypto: Federal Reserve Discretion in Payments* by Julie Hill   *Fiscal Arithmetic and the Global Inflation Outlook* by Peder Beck-Friis and Richard Clarida

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