IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson

03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?

05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk

09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?

11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm

15:15 - The new area of tightness

18:27 - It is all about labour cost

23:46 - The deflationary power of technology

26:46 - The outlook of the labour market

32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of...

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IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts

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SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

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Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a ...

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SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

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Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a...

14 Helmi 1h 13min

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A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capita...

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Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case ...

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Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification acr...

31 Tammi 1h 4min

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