Is Success Due to Hard Work, Talent, or Luck?

Is Success Due to Hard Work, Talent, or Luck?

How to survive in a world where luck and randomness play a pivotal role.

Topics covered include:

  • What are power laws
  • What are the narrative fallacy and hindsight bias
  • What are examples of domains where randomness has contributed to success
  • What are ways to distinguish investing skill from luck
  • How sixth-century philosopher Boethius had an accurate view of chance
  • What are ways we can benefit from good luck while protecting ourselves from bad luck


For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

Copper

Money For the Rest of Us Plus

Show Notes

Redacted messages to and from Elon Musk—Delaware’s Court of Chancery

Elon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius by Charlie Warzel—The Atlantic

Talent Versus Luck: The Role of Randomness In Success and Failure by Alessandro Pluchino, Alessio Emanuele Biondo, and Andrea Rapisarda

Susan Alexandra

Welcome to Susan Alexandra’s Dream World by Sophia Herring—Clever, Architectural Digest

The Fashion Set Can’t Get Enough of Susan Alexandra’s Colorful, Kitschy Designs by Noah Lehava—Coveteur

Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact by Roberta Sinatra et al.

What's in a Surname? The Effects of Surname Initials on Academic Success by Liran Einav and Leeat Yariv

Middle names make you look smarter—University of Southhampton

Admission to Selective Schools, Alphabetically by Štěpán Jurajda and Daniel Münich

It Pays to Be Herr Kaiser: Germans With Noble-Sounding Surnames More Often Work as Managers Than as Employees by Raphael Silberzahn and Eric Luis Uhlmann

The relative-age effect and career success: Evidence from corporate CEOs by Qianqian Du, Huasheng Gao, Maurice D. Levi

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Were Those Great Returns the Result of Skill — or Just Luck? by Julie Segal—Institutional Investor

Related Episodes

323: The Economy Is Not A Machine

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Jaksot(573)

Invitation to Our Live Portfolio Review and Rebalancing Special Webinar

Invitation to Our Live Portfolio Review and Rebalancing Special Webinar

Please attend our live webinar on portfolio construction and rebalancing scheduled for Thursday, April 30th, at 12PM Eastern, 9AM Pacific time. I will cover the five steps to constructing and rebalanc...

22 Huhti 3min

There Is No Perfect Portfolio. Just Good Enough

There Is No Perfect Portfolio. Just Good Enough

Why portfolio construction is messy, personal, and never perfect. We compare the pros and cons of several portfolio strategies, including target-date funds, risk parity, and role-based portfolios. We ...

15 Huhti 27min

A MFTROU Update, Cognitive Offloading Versus Cognitive Surrender, and Live Portfolio Cohorts

A MFTROU Update, Cognitive Offloading Versus Cognitive Surrender, and Live Portfolio Cohorts

In this mini episode, I share some examples of how I am using Claude Cowork and other tools to boost my productivity and build investment portfolio analysis tools. I also share more details on the liv...

1 Huhti 7min

Is Another Great Financial Crisis Coming? 5 Ways to Prepare

Is Another Great Financial Crisis Coming? 5 Ways to Prepare

How the Iran conflict and other developments could lead to another major financial crisis. What is different today from 2008? Why trying to seed a revolution is so risky. And finally, what can we do t...

25 Maalis 27min

AI Is Changing Me - and the Case for Good Enough

AI Is Changing Me - and the Case for Good Enough

When is good enough actually good enough? AI is reshaping how I work and live. And a member with a portfolio that's beaten an all-in-one Vanguard LifeStrategy fund for ten years asks whether the compl...

11 Maalis 25min

What Average Really Looks Like — and Can Managed Futures Help?

What Average Really Looks Like — and Can Managed Futures Help?

How historical and expected returns for university endowments can guide us in setting reasonable return expectations. We also analyze managed futures strategies to see how they work, how they have per...

25 Helmi 27min

Asset Location: Where You Invest, Where You Live, What You Can Access

Asset Location: Where You Invest, Where You Live, What You Can Access

In this episode, we look at asset location, how to decide which investments belong in taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts, how where we live shapes the opportunities available to us, and how ...

11 Helmi 23min

Why Catastrophe Bonds Yield 12%. Should You Invest?

Why Catastrophe Bonds Yield 12%. Should You Invest?

A new ETF allows individuals to earn income by insuring against natural disasters through investing in catastrophe bonds. We break down the historical returns, risk, fees, and structure of this intrig...

28 Tammi 23min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahapodi
herrasmieshakkerit
rss-rahamania
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-doulapodi
rss-sami-miettinen-neuvottelija
rahapuhetta
rss-lahtijat
rss-paasipodi
juristipodi
rss-sisalto-kuntoon
inderespodi
pomojen-suusta
yrittaja
rss-uskalla-yrittaa
rss-laakispodi
rss-bisnesta-bebeja