Beware of Survivorship Bias When Investing

Beware of Survivorship Bias When Investing

Why long-term U.S. stock market outperformance could be because it has avoided major catastrophes. Does an over-reliance on historical U.S. stock returns when modeling retirement outcomes lead to spending rates that are too high?

Topics covered include:

  • Why you might consider earthquake insurance
  • What is survivorship bias and what are some examples
  • Why the U.S. is an outlier when it comes to stock market performance
  • Why the 4% retirement spending rule might be too high
  • If the 4% spending rule is too high, what can retirees do instead to have enough for retirement
  • Why the size and scale of the U.S. economy provide some resistance to catastrophes


For more information on this episode click here.

Thanks to our Sponsors

Shopify

Masterworks – invest in contemporary art

Show Notes

Homefacts

Survivorship Bias—Matt Rickard

Is The United States A Lucky Survivor: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach by Jules H. van Binsbergen, Et al.—SSRN

The Financial History of Emerging Markets: New Indices by Bryan Taylor—SSRN

The (Time-Varying) Importance of Disaster Risk by Ivo Welch—Financial Analyst Journal

The Safe Withdrawal Rate: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets by Aizhan Anarkulova, Et al.—SSRN

The 2.7% Rule for Retirement Spending by Ben Felix—YouTube

Trends in Retirement and Retirement Income Choices by Tiaa Participants: 2000–2018 by Jeffrey R. Brown, Et al.—SSRN

Related Episodes

250: Investing Rule One: Avoid Ruin

326: The New Math of Retirement Spending and Investing


See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Jaksot(572)

Money for the Rest of Us Update

Money for the Rest of Us Update

This week there isn’t a regular Money for the Rest of Us episode, but David shares an update on what’s happening behind the scenes. He previews an exclusive Plus member livestream on the forces shapin...

24 Syys 20256min

Resilient Wealth in an Era of Infinite Money

Resilient Wealth in an Era of Infinite Money

What happens when the money supply grows too slowly or too quickly? From gold-standard deflation to QE-driven inflation and inequality, we trace the lessons of monetary history, and what we can do tod...

17 Syys 202525min

Forests, Fakes, and the Fight for the Real

Forests, Fakes, and the Fight for the Real

From salmon leaping along the Vancouver Island coast to fake bands on Spotify, this episode explores the divide between the physical and digital economy, and what lumber markets, managed forests, and ...

10 Syys 202522min

Why Central Banking Is So Hard and Why Fed Independence Matters

Why Central Banking Is So Hard and Why Fed Independence Matters

Central bankers set policy with incomplete information, unobservable targets, and constant trade-offs between growth, inflation, and employment. In this episode, we delve into how the fight for Federa...

27 Elo 202524min

How To Invest During a Bubble

How To Invest During a Bubble

From the dot-com boom to today’s AI frenzy, bubbles follow a familiar script. This episode explores how to recognize them, what sustains them, and how to position your portfolio without getting swept ...

20 Elo 202521min

Six Principles for Thriving Under Uncertainty and How Big Tech Is Doing the Opposite

Six Principles for Thriving Under Uncertainty and How Big Tech Is Doing the Opposite

A practical framework for making better decisions, managing risk, and finding opportunity in unpredictable environments. We contrast these principles with the massive $2.9 trillion AI data center buil...

13 Elo 202525min

Why Most Hedge Funds Fail but This One Didn’t with Dave Thomas

Why Most Hedge Funds Fail but This One Didn’t with Dave Thomas

Dave Thomas, CIO and Founder of long/short hedge fund, Atalan Capital Partners, shares why most hedge funds fail and the keys to being a long-term successful investor.Episode SponsorDelete Me – Use co...

6 Elo 202539min

How To Better Navigate Money, Risk, Time, and Uncertainty with Carl Richards

How To Better Navigate Money, Risk, Time, and Uncertainty with Carl Richards

David converses with renowned illustrator and financial philosopher Carl Richards on the abstraction of money, attention capital, distinguishing risk from uncertainty, and the importance of taking mic...

30 Heinä 202538min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
rss-rahapodi
psykopodiaa-podcast
hyva-paha-johtaminen
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-rahamania
rss-sami-miettinen-neuvottelija
rss-lahtijat
rss-rentotapaus
kultaiset-hoitajat
rss-startup-ministerio
rss-seuraava-potilas
herrasmieshakkerit
rss-strategian-seurassa
asuntoasiaa-paivakirjat
rss-h-asselmoilanen
rss-tyoelamasta-podcast
rss-vaikuttavan-opettajan-vierella
rss-set-for-life-sijoita-ja-vaurastu