Three Long-Term Trends by the Numbers

Our Global Head of Fixed Income shares some startling data on decarbonization, the widespread use of AI and longevity.

----- Transcript -----

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about key secular themes impacting markets.

It's Wednesday, Mar 6th at 10:30 am in New York.

We kicked off 2024 by highlighting the three secular themes we think will make the difference between being ahead of or behind the curve in markets – longevity, AI tech diffusion, and decarbonization.

How’s it going so far? We’ve got some initial insights and opportunities at the sector level worth sharing, and here they are through the lens of three big numbers.

The first number is €5 trillion – that’s how much our global economics and European utilities teams estimate will be spent in Europe by 2030 on efforts to decarbonize the energy system. These attempts will boost both growth and inflation, though by how much remains unclear. A more concrete investment takeaway is to focus on the sectors that will be on the receiving end of decarbonization spending: utilities and grid operators.

The second set of numbers are US$140 billion and US$77 billion – these are our colleagues' total addressable market projections for smart-chemo, over the next 15 years, and obesity treatments, by 2030. In terms of our longevity theme, we see companies increasingly investing in and achieving breakthroughs that can extend life. While the theme will have myriad macro impacts that we’re still exploring, the tangible takeaway here is that there are clear beneficiaries in pharma to pursue.

The last number we’re focusing on is US$500 billion. That’s the opportunity associated with a fivefold increase in the size of the European data center market out to 2035. That should be driven by the need to ramp up to deal with key tech trends, like Generative AI.

So, while those numbers drive some pretty clear equity sector takeaways, the macro market implications are somewhat more complicated. For example, on longevity, a common client question is whether health breakthroughs will have a beneficial impact for bond investors by shrinking fiscal deficits.

Among US investors, for example, one theory is that breakthroughs in preventative care will reduce Medicare and Medicaid spending. But even if that proved true, we still have to consider potential offsetting effects, such as whether new healthcare costs will arise. After all, if people are living longer, more active lives, they might need more of other types of healthcare, like orthopedic treatments.

Simply put, the macro market impacts are complicated, but critical to understand. We remain on the case. In the meantime, there’s clearer opportunities from our big themes in utilities, pharma, and other key sectors.

Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We’d love to hear from you.