What is Driving Big Moves in the Oil Market?

What is Driving Big Moves in the Oil Market?

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist surveys the latest big swings in the oil market, which could lead to opportunities in equities and credit around the energy sector.


----- Transcript -----


Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the implications of recent strong moves in oil markets.

It's Tuesday, April 9th at 3pm in New York.

A lot is going on in the commodity markets, particularly in the oil market. Oil prices have made a powerful move. What is driving these moves? And how should investors think about this in the context of adjacent markets in equities and credit?

Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist and Head of European Energy Research, Martijn Rats, raised crude oil price forecast for the third quarter to $94 per barrel. The rally in recent weeks is a result of positive fundamental news and rising geopolitical tensions.

On the fundamental side, we've had better than expected demand from China and steeper than forecast fall in US production. Further, oil prices have also found support from growing potential for supply uncertainty in the Middle East. Martijn thinks that the last few dollars of rally in oil prices should be interpreted as a premium for rising geopolitical risks. The revision to the third quarter forecast should therefore be seen to reflect these growing geopolitical risks.

Our US equity strategists, led by Mike Wilson, have recently upgraded the energy sector. The underlying rationale behind the upgrade is that the energy sector relative performance has really lagged crude oil prices; and unlike many other sectors within the US stock world, valuation in energy stocks is very compelling.

Furthermore, the relative earnings revisions in energy stocks are beginning to inflect higher and the sector is actually exhibiting best breadth of any sector across the US equity spectrum. Higher oil prices are also important for credit markets. To quote Brian Gibbons, Morgan Stanley's Head of Energy Credit Research, for credit bonds of oil focused players, flat production levels and strong commodity prices should support free cash flow generation, which in turn should go to both shareholder returns and debt reduction.

In summary, there is a lot going on in the energy markets. Oil prices have still some room to move higher in the short term. We find opportunities both in equity and credit markets to express our constructive view on oil prices.

Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to this podcast. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Jaksot(1514)

Michael Zezas: U.S. Stimulus Twists and Turns

Michael Zezas: U.S. Stimulus Twists and Turns

When it comes to the next round of U.S. fiscal stimulus, in the near term it may be the journey that moves markets, not the destination.

27 Tammi 20212min

Mike Wilson: An Overexuberant Bull?

Mike Wilson: An Overexuberant Bull?

It’s hard to ignore that pockets of excess have developed in financial markets. While past is not always prologue, a look back at the global financial crisis and tech bubble of 1999 provides perspective.

26 Tammi 20213min

Special Episode: U.S. Housing and Credit Outlook 2021

Special Episode: U.S. Housing and Credit Outlook 2021

Data on housing supply, demand, affordability and credit availability paint an optimistic picture for U.S. housing. We dive into the outlook for residential credit and agency mortgage markets.

22 Tammi 202111min

Andrew Sheets: The Case for Optimism in 2021

Andrew Sheets: The Case for Optimism in 2021

Investors are keeping a worried eye on the pandemic, expensive stock valuations and potentially higher inflation. But even in these areas there may be cause for optimism.

21 Tammi 20213min

Michael Zezas: 3 U.S. Policy Forecasts… and a Wild Card

Michael Zezas: 3 U.S. Policy Forecasts… and a Wild Card

As a Democratic administration takes the reins in the White House and Congress, what policy moves should investors expect?

20 Tammi 20212min

Mike Wilson: Time to Leave the Pack Behind?

Mike Wilson: Time to Leave the Pack Behind?

Investors have become infatuated with the S&P 500, but a rotation to new leadership suggests a look toward stocks that have been off the radar.

19 Tammi 20213min

Special Episode: Rates and FX Markets Eye the U.S. Policy Path

Special Episode: Rates and FX Markets Eye the U.S. Policy Path

As Congress and a new administration ponder new stimulus to navigate the pandemic, what will 2021 look like for FX and government bond markets?

15 Tammi 202110min

Andrew Sheets: Rates and Inflation - Moving for the Right Reasons?

Andrew Sheets: Rates and Inflation - Moving for the Right Reasons?

Rising yields and inflation can create anxiety for investors, but the impact depends on why they’re rising. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

14 Tammi 20212min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
psykopodiaa-podcast
mimmit-sijoittaa
rss-rahapodi
herrasmieshakkerit
rss-rahamania
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
lakicast
rss-neuvottelija-sami-miettinen
pari-sanaa-lastensuojelusta
rss-lahtijat
rss-startup-ministerio
taloudellinen-mielenrauha
oppimisen-psykologia
syo-nuku-saasta
rahapuhetta
yrittaja
hyva-paha-johtaminen
rss-myyntikoulu
rss-seuraava-potilas