What is Driving Big Moves in the Oil Market?

What is Driving Big Moves in the Oil Market?

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist surveys the latest big swings in the oil market, which could lead to opportunities in equities and credit around the energy sector.


----- Transcript -----


Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the implications of recent strong moves in oil markets.

It's Tuesday, April 9th at 3pm in New York.

A lot is going on in the commodity markets, particularly in the oil market. Oil prices have made a powerful move. What is driving these moves? And how should investors think about this in the context of adjacent markets in equities and credit?

Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist and Head of European Energy Research, Martijn Rats, raised crude oil price forecast for the third quarter to $94 per barrel. The rally in recent weeks is a result of positive fundamental news and rising geopolitical tensions.

On the fundamental side, we've had better than expected demand from China and steeper than forecast fall in US production. Further, oil prices have also found support from growing potential for supply uncertainty in the Middle East. Martijn thinks that the last few dollars of rally in oil prices should be interpreted as a premium for rising geopolitical risks. The revision to the third quarter forecast should therefore be seen to reflect these growing geopolitical risks.

Our US equity strategists, led by Mike Wilson, have recently upgraded the energy sector. The underlying rationale behind the upgrade is that the energy sector relative performance has really lagged crude oil prices; and unlike many other sectors within the US stock world, valuation in energy stocks is very compelling.

Furthermore, the relative earnings revisions in energy stocks are beginning to inflect higher and the sector is actually exhibiting best breadth of any sector across the US equity spectrum. Higher oil prices are also important for credit markets. To quote Brian Gibbons, Morgan Stanley's Head of Energy Credit Research, for credit bonds of oil focused players, flat production levels and strong commodity prices should support free cash flow generation, which in turn should go to both shareholder returns and debt reduction.

In summary, there is a lot going on in the energy markets. Oil prices have still some room to move higher in the short term. We find opportunities both in equity and credit markets to express our constructive view on oil prices.

Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to this podcast. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Jaksot(1512)

U.S. Election 2020: Divided Government Scenarios

U.S. Election 2020: Divided Government Scenarios

In part two of our special election episode, we look at the policies that could potentially come out of divided party control among the White House, Senate and House, and how they might impact markets.

23 Loka 20207min

U.S. Election 2020: Straightaways and Detours

U.S. Election 2020: Straightaways and Detours

What is the road ahead for global markets between now and inauguration day? The answer may fall into two categories: straightaways and detours. Part one of a special two-part episode.

22 Loka 20209min

Michael Zezas: What's Going On With The U.S. Bond Market?

Michael Zezas: What's Going On With The U.S. Bond Market?

The yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are now at multi-month highs, prompting some investors to ask “What’s going on?” Analysis from Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas.

21 Loka 20202min

Mike Wilson: Why the Correction May Not Be Over

Mike Wilson: Why the Correction May Not Be Over

Uncertainty about fiscal stimulus, the U.S. election and the pandemic could mean the correction isn’t over. However, one thematic opportunity could present itself.

19 Loka 20203min

Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Pricing-In Recent U.S. Election Polls?

Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Pricing-In Recent U.S. Election Polls?

Although many investors view markets as a highly efficient prognostic machine, the surprises of the 2016 election may have created more hesitancy to guess election outcomes.

16 Loka 20202min

Special Episode: Playing the Reopening and Recovery Into 2021

Special Episode: Playing the Reopening and Recovery Into 2021

On this Special Episode, Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner talks with U.S. Equity Strategist Adam Virgadamo about the path to recovery and mispriced “reopening stocks.”

15 Loka 20209min

Michael Zezas: One Fewer Election Blind Spot?

Michael Zezas: One Fewer Election Blind Spot?

Although it’s possible that the results of the 2020 U.S. election won’t come on Nov. 3rd, there is some fresh evidence that it may unfold more smoothly than pundits predict.

14 Loka 20202min

Mike Wilson: Investors Juggle Multiple Uncertainties

Mike Wilson: Investors Juggle Multiple Uncertainties

Although there is uncertainty over new stimulus, a potential coronavirus second wave and the upcoming election, investors can use market volatility to their advantage.

12 Loka 20203min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahapodi
lakicast
herrasmieshakkerit
rss-rahamania
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-neuvottelija-sami-miettinen
rss-lahtijat
rss-startup-ministerio
oppimisen-psykologia
taloudellinen-mielenrauha
pomojen-suusta
rss-strategian-seurassa
rss-myyntipodi
rss-uskalla-yrittaa
rss-ammattipodcast
rss-markkinointiradio
rss-karon-grilli