Midyear Credit Outlook Favors Moderation

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why moderate economic growth offers opportunities in credit markets – if investors choose carefully.

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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley, along with my colleagues, bring you a variety of perspectives Today, I'll be talking about our outlook for credit markets over the next 12 months.

It's Friday, May 24th, at 9 a. m. in New York. Morgan Stanley's global economic and strategy teams have recently published our mid year outlook. Twice a year, all of us get together to take a step back, debating what we think the outlook could look like over the 12 months ahead. For credit, we think that backdrop still looks pretty good.

Corporate credit, in representing lending to companies, is an asset class that loves moderation and hates extremes. An economy that's too weak raises the risk that companies fail, and has been consistently bad for returns. But an economy that's too strong also causes challenges, as companies take more risks, the rewards of which often go to stockholders, not their lenders.

The good news for credit is that Morgan Stanley's latest economic forecasts are absolutely full of moderation for economic growth. We see the U.S. growing at about 2 percent this year and next and Europe growing at about 1%. Right in that temperate zone, the credit usually finds optimal.

We see inflation falling, with core inflation back to 2 percent in the U. S. and Europe over the next 12 months. And monetary policy should also moderate, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of England All lowering interest rates as this inflation comes down.

For credit, forecasts that expect moderate growth, moderating inflation, and moderating interest rates are exactly that down the fairway outcome that we think markets generally like. The challenge, of course, is that spreads have narrowed and lower risk premiums are discounting a lot of good news. So how do investors navigate richer valuations within what we think is still a very supportive economic backdrop?

One thing we continue to like is leveraged loans, where yields and spreads we think are more attractive. In the U. S., yields on loans are still north of 9%. We like short dated investment grade bonds, which we think offer a good mix of income and stability, and also happen to correspond to the maturity range that our interest rate colleagues expect yields to see the largest decline.

That should help total returns. And in Europe, we don't think spreads are particularly tight. And that should be further supported by relatively upbeat views on the European stock market from our equity strategies. Morgan Stanley's macroeconomic backdrop, which is full of moderation, is supportive for credit.

Tighter valuations are a challenge, but given this moderate backdrop, we think they can stay expensive. We still think there are good opportunities within credit, but investors will have to pick their spots. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.