The Brutal Incompetence of a Floundering Regime

Episode #196: “You have these new battlefields that the military seems unprepared for and certainly doesn't have the manpower or resources. And yet they're fighting! They've chosen to fight in these places.”

In this episode, security analyst Zach Abuza unravels the intricate web of conflict that continues to unfold in Myanmar. The Burmese military finds itself ensnared in an unprecedented multi-front war. From Chin state to Magwe, and from Mandalay to the remote reaches of Shan and Kayah states, the military is stalemated. Abuza delves into the military's stark predicament – stretched thin, facing dwindling resources, and grappling with internal dissent—along with the nation's crumbling economy, and the evolving contours of the crisis.

He also illuminates a compelling narrative of resistance forces, showcasing their battlefield innovation and unwavering determination. Meanwhile, in rural regions, Abuza stresses that the everyday bravery of fighting against the military’s tyranny continues. “Despite the threat of arrest, of terrible treatment upon arrest, whether sexual violence or rape, being tortured to death, people are protesting military rule. Every day, there are flash mobs in villages around the country protesting military rule! The courage of the people of Myanmar to do this for 30 plus months, it is astounding.”

However, Abuza concludes that the military's ability to fund its reign of terror has not been affected even by its battlefield failures. The junta exploits the nation's natural resources and foreign investments. But the country teeters on the precipice of an economic abyss, facing rising inflation, a contracting economy, widespread poverty and food insecurity. The military's mismanagement of the nation's financial institutions further exacerbates the economic chaos.

Yet in spite of the drastic economic situation and the junta’s lack of military success, the generals keep their grip on power, and while resistance forces can now keep the military at bay, they do not presently have the capacity to push for victory. So the question continues to linger: How long can the military keep this seemingly unending conflict going?