The Art of War

Episode #268: In a discussion emblematic of the complexities inherent in international diplomacy, Scot Marciel, former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar, elucidates the multifaceted challenges of addressing the crisis there. Marcel’s thinking, informed by his extensive diplomatic service, highlights a pervasive hesitancy among international actors to engage decisively with the Myanmar military, largely deemed an untrustworthy entity, yet also to put their eggs in the NUG/resistance basket.

Marciel highlights the deep-rooted issues stemming from the military's unyielding grip on power and its demonstrated propensity for reneging on agreements, as evidenced by the 2021 coup. The military’s overthrow of a democratically-elected government starkly illuminates their unwillingness to cede control, thus undermining any prospect of meaningful dialogue or compromise.

Marciel also explains what he believes is the ideal role for the international community to play: a supportive yet non-intrusive stance that facilitates dialogue among Myanmar's diverse actors without dictating outcomes, and respecting the country's sovereignty while providing essential resources and expertise.

Marciel's reflections on the Rohingya crisis reveals the diplomatic result of that terrible time; namely, an international mistrust of both the military and civilian government, in the latter case, a sense of being let down. Fast forward to 2024, and today, the international community's response, though well-intentioned, often falls short due to limited understanding and engagement, highlighting the need for a more nuanced and sustained approach to diplomacy and support in Myanmar.

“I do think the solution is for the military to be forced to relinquish political power, and to me, that means for the international community to put maximum pressure on that military, [doing] nothing to confer legitimacy on it,” Marciel says in closing. “At the same time, of course, you also have to figure out what comes next… but to me, the answer is, rather than to be paralyzed by the risks, what can the international community to do now to help the various various elements of the resistance, the Civil Disobedience Movement, civil society, other political actors, and prepare for some kind of transition process?”