Daily Briefing - June 19, 2020

Senior Editor Ash Bennington joins Managing Editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst discuss what “returning to normal” means for markets—whether it’s breaking into a new regime or a return to the status quo. They also dive into “the dollar smile,” where bond yields are headed, and commercial real estate in the UK. In the intro segment, Real Vision’s Nick Correa talks about the 1968 influenza pandemic and how the world’s response to pandemics in the past was vastly different from the response today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Kesä 202037min

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to delve into whether the pandemonium in the U.S. will ever spread into capital markets. They analyze the historical performance of markets during times of civil unrest and explore whether U.S. equities have "priced in" the possibility that the ongoing mass protests in the U.S. could accelerate the spread of COVID-19. Ed and Ash also discuss the yield curve and retracement levels for the S&P. In the intro, Real Vision's Nick Correa talks about the 1957 pandemic, the Eisenhower recession, and how they may intersect. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Kesä 202030min

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the roiling civil unrest in the U.S. could affect businesses and financial markets. They look at the correlation of the Citi Surprise index and bond yields, and Ed introduces three historical parallels to compare to the current moment. Ed and Ash reaffirm that Real Vision’s core remit is to analyze markets. In the intro, Jack Farley gives an overview of global PMI data and Goldman Sachs’ revised forecast for the S&P 500. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Kesä 202032min

Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy and Research, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its long-term consequences on monetary policy, investing, and geopolitics. Pal and Sokoloff analyze how a protracted quarantine might slow economic activity to such a degree that central banks become more active than they ever have before, either by monetizing debt or by purchasing risk assets outright. The pair also explore how the crisis might affect the 2020 election, the practice of stock buybacks, and specific assets like oil, gold, and the Japanese Yen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

31 Touko 202055min

Recently the Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented steps to backstop the market, sending investors scrambling to relearn the “rules of the game,” and inciting arguably justifiable outrage from others. Matt Rowe, CIO of Headwaters Volatility, and Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, debate the utility of this outrage and explore whether the level of shock is justified considering the long history of the “rules changing”. Additionally, they examine the misaligned incentives for investors and governments, try to make sense of the recent rally in equities and the bifurcation of the high-yield market, and look forward at the potential for big surprises like bailouts or the Fed stepping into the equity market.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Touko 202057min

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets and macro in the era of coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison talk through the risks and potential upside to growth as European institutions debate bailouts in Europe, the possible ripple effect of President Trump’s call to revoke Hong Kong’s special trade status, and the plausibility of the renminbi becoming a global reserve currency. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses some of the latest economic data coming out of Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Touko 202037min

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. They talk through why US equities are still not suffering even though the real economic data demonstrates an increasingly bleaker picture. In light of that, Harrison and Hirst break down what lessons to draw from this investing environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Jack Farley looks at the continued layoffs in the airline and tech industries. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

29 Touko 202032min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst analyze what’s happening in Europe, including the recently proposed EU stimulus package, ballooning European debt, and the underlying structure of the eurozone. They also discuss recent moves in equity prices and the current landscape of currency markets. In the intro, Real Vision’s Nick Correa shares the details of both the EU’s and Japan’s proposed stimulus bills for economic relief. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Touko 202040min