Recession: Past, Present, or Future?
U.S. economic growth rose 2.9% in Q4 2022, down 0.3% from the prior quarter but stronger than forecasts. Markets rallied on the news, as some investors saw cooler-but-growing GDP as proof that a soft landing may be possible. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Maggie Lake to explore some mysterious data contradictions now popping up — and why a recession may have started many months ago. Then, Francis Gannon of Royce Investment Partners joins the show to dive into why small-caps may offer equity investors the best value in this market environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
26 Tammi 202336min
The Options Market Has a Message
It’s been a roller coaster day for U.S. equities, as stocks plummeted after Microsoft issued weak forward guidance on its earnings call. But as of this writing, indexes have erased those early losses and the options market is now pricing in a Fed pivot after next Thursday’s Fed funds rate announcement. Imran Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his views of the macro landscape, explain what the options activity means for broader markets, and share some ways that investors can take action. Plus, we’ll hear from Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, on why he’s so confident the U.S. won’t enter a recession in 2023. You can watch the entire interview with Marko and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/antidavos Sign up for the Real Vision Academy for access to Imran’s course on options here: https://t.co/wRrZtPLopn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
25 Tammi 202338min
When Will the Green Shoots Narrative End?
U.S. equities were flat today as investors weigh dual uncertainties: earnings season and a potential recession. Meanwhile, energy and interest rates both closed in the red, and business conditions contracted in January for the fourth month in a row, according to the latest S&P survey. Andreas Steno Larsen sits down with Eric Johnston of Cantor Fitzgerald to discuss the latest price action and hear why he believes there’s “very little upside” for stocks in the near-term. Plus, we’ll hear from veteran economist and strategist David Rosenberg, on why a rapid collapse in inflation could lead to a drawn-out recession. You can watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3DaMUt6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
24 Tammi 202337min
Is This Stock Breakout a Fake-out?
The U.S. stock market rallied to start the week, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way after a slew of job cuts from major tech companies entering earnings season. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 made new monthly highs and broke above key moving averages. Mike Coolbaugh, the founder of Element Macro Research LLC and a Real Vision analyst, joins Maggie Lake to discuss today’s price action and what macro data he’s watching we move into February. Then, technical trading legend Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group joins the conversation to read the charts and share how he’s identifying tradeable trends. We’ll also hear Jared Dillian’s take on gold from last Friday’s extended Daily Briefing. You can watch that entire interview right here: https://rvtv.io/3GZtF6O Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
23 Tammi 202337min
Is This the End of US Dominance?
Turkey has been the best-performing equity market in the world in dollar terms in 2022. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real have been among the strongest currencies against the buck this year. Amid global upheaval unlike anything in recent memory, emerging markets have become much more attractive to investors. Is this a durable trend in asset allocation? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Whitney Baker, the founder of Totem Macro, for a conversation about the convergence of deglobalization, inflation, and quantitative tightening and the emergence of emerging markets as we transition to a multipolar geopolitical-macroeconomic regime. Follow Whitney on Twitter @TotemMacro. Recorded on November 23, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
22 Tammi 202354min
Why Consumer Prices Will Plummet (And How to Play It)
In the inaugural episode of Steno's Signals, Andreas walks us through why inflation will fall fast in the first quarter of this year, why that might not be a broad-based sign to buy equities—especially in the energy sector—and tells us how he’s setting up to trade it. Recorded on January 3rd, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
21 Tammi 202324min
Is it Time to Take Profits?
Stocks rallied back on Friday but are still down on the week as another large round of job cuts hits the technology sector. In today’s extended version of the Daily Briefing, Jared Dillian joins Maggie Lake to discuss this week’s price action, overall market sentiment, and when he sees a true Fed pivot coming into play. In the second part of this extended show, we’ll dive deep into what Jared is specifically trading, how he’s positioning, and how to protect yourself in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
20 Tammi 202334min
Is the Bear Market Back to Bite Us Again?
Stocks extended yesterday’s slide after lower-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims this morning suggested a still-resilient labor market. Meanwhile, December housing starts slowed less than forecasted, tech layoffs continue, and earnings reports suggest that the Fed’s rate hikes are beginning to manifest a recession. Tom Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Maggie Lake to make sense of the market action and share how he’s positioning his portfolio as earnings season picks up. Plus, we’ll hear from Andreas Steno Larsen on why the U.S. breaching its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling could impact equity investors. You can watch Andreas’ new series, Steno’s Signals, right here: https://rvtv.io/3QUIoof Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
19 Tammi 202339min
