Lyn Alden on Gold, Real Bond Yields, and the Treasury s Bloated War Chest

U.S. equity indexes soared on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting a near 800-point gain and the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.86% and 0.92% two hours ahead of the close of regular trading. Equity futures indicated a positive open after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled a willingness to negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy. Still, fighting rages in and around Kyiv, though it appears Putin’s forces are not advancing as rapidly as their leader had hoped or planned. Joining Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the geopolitical situation is Dee Smith, founder and CEO of Strategic Insight Group. And with us today to talk about how the nascent war might impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is the “Fed Guy,” Joseph Wang, a former trader on the central bank’s open markets desk. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3M2l05h. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

26 Helmi 202237min

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked global financial markets, highlighted by a 31% spike in the spot price for European natural gas. Brent crude oil crossed the psychologically significant $100-per-barrel mark, and the May 2022 Euronext wheat contract surged by nearly 8%. U.S. equity markets were mixed two hours ahead of the close of regular trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index down 1.63% and 0.69%, respectively, but the Nasdaq up 0.61%. Bond yields are falling, as investors seek safe havens. Meanwhile, Russian tanks are rolling across Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s troops now control the Chernobyl nuclear site, and Western allies expect Kyiv to fall within hours. Jacob Shapiro, founder and chief strategist of Perch Perspectives, and Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, join Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the geopolitical situation and markets’ reaction to the specter of the most significant conflict since World War II. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3t3TPhR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

25 Helmi 202235min

Investors face a dilemma of seemingly mythological proportions, stuck between the Scylla of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Charybdis of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. And one monster theoretically feeds the other, as rising geopolitical tensions continue to drive crude oil and natural gas prices higher and add to inflation pressures in the United States. President Joe Biden’s sanctions regime appears to be targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, as he navigates a complex set of international and domestic problems. Ukrainian banks and government websites are under cyber attack and Russian troops have crossed its borders, as this 21st century struggle continues to unfold. How will literal war in Eastern Europe play into the Fed’s figurative war on inflation, with market rates already creeping up? Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to assess financial markets in context of the present geo-macro situation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3sdD0SD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

24 Helmi 202237min

The crisis in Eastern Europe has escalated to new levels, as Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the deployment of troops to rebel-held areas of Ukraine. Prices for energy commodities, including crude oil and natural gas, spiked on the news. And wheat, a key export from the region, is also rising. Weston Nakamura joins Ash Bennington for a look at the geopolitical situation through the lens of global markets in today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing. Cross-asset analysis, as Weston notes, is the best way for investors to understand what is a complex situation, on the ground in Europe as well as for people making decisions about their portfolios. How will the Federal Reserve’s approach to its tightening cycle change, if at all? And what will China do? Join Weston and Ash for a discussion of what recent price action tells us about the world right now. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3v5I651 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

23 Helmi 202231min

In the previous part 1 video of Weston Nakamura’s series on the Bank of Japan, Weston explains how BOJ Yield Curve Control works, and discusses the implications of being the only major central bank left who claims to still provide highly accommodative monetary policy in 2022. In this part two video, Weston shares his long-running theory on "BOJ Press Tests,” conducted behind the scenes by the central bank, carried out by major financial media outlets, and intended to get a read on market sentiment before a potentially permanent, irreversible policy error is made - as the Bank of Japan currently works to clean up its most recent attempt at using a “press test” as it headed into the January Monetary Policy Meeting. He also shows an example of when a theoretically impenetrable yield curve control fails a at the upper-bound of the YCC range. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

20 Helmi 202250min

Independent volatility trader, Darrin Johnson, believes trading volatility is the key to success in the market. In this invaluable episode, Johnson sits down with Jason Buck to reveal the key trading principles he follows and the importance of “standing out” professionally. Starting from the beginning of his entrepreneurial journey, the largely self-taught trader stresses the importance of educating oneself and reveals the learning materials he’s used personally—including the book central to his education and success in this area. Johnson shares some of the key lessons for institutional and independent trading, how to hedge risk effectively, and where he sees the most opportunity in the market right now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

20 Helmi 202210min

Christian Alexander of Macro Link is one of the best-connected insiders in the hedge fund industry -- a "Jerry Maguire" figure with a broad and deep list of contacts. Three years ago, he spoke with Roger Hirst about the future of the industry, when "easy money" was the dominant regime. And, in November, he shared his thoughts on inflation with Maggie Lake, before wholesale and consumer prices spiked to multi-decade highs. Chris joins Maggie for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to update his thesis on hedge funds’ future as the Federal Reserve prepares to launch its first rate-hiking cycle since 2015-18. How will hedge funds adjust to the new reality? And what's Chris hearing from hedge-fund insiders about inflation, markets, specific assets, and the economy? Drop your questions for Chris on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3H0f611 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Helmi 202237min

“GOLD.” That’s it; that’s the tweet Jared Dillian has published twice in the last couple days, as the yellow metal has surged more than 2%. A store of value (and a medium of exchange) for millennia, gold didn’t respond as inflation fears swelled during 2021. Now that the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index are hitting multi-decade highs, though, alongside still-rising tension in Eastern Europe, it’s back in favor. Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, says 30% of his portfolio is made up of gold, silver, and precious-metals miners. And two weeks ago he tweeted, “I have a hunch that what’s coming next will make it feel like it’s not enough.” Dillian joins Real Vision Daily Briefing host Ash Bennington to talk about gold and why it remains a sound investment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GREEgR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

18 Helmi 202234min