One Year Anniversary of the Market Bottom -- What Could Go Wrong?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday, “Inflation is much too high,” noting that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his view that U.S. monetary policy must be tightened quickly to put a stop to upward pressure on inflation that’s already too high, repeating his call for a fed funds target rate above 3.0% this year. Meanwhile, a selloff in government bonds intensified on concerns that rising inflation will drag the nation’s economy into recession. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit its highest level since 2019, as the Treasury market nears the end of what could be its worst quarter since 1973. Altogether, it looks like the hiking cycle could be more aggressive than previously forecast. But what if we have inflation all wrong? Could it be, suggests Vincent Deluard, director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, that in a service-oriented economy “inflation” is just another word for “growth”? Deluard joins Warren Pies to discuss inflation and growth, monetary policy, and the likelihood of an inverted yield curve in the very near future. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3qrBE5m Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

23 Maalis 202242min

We’re nearly one month into Russia’s war against Ukraine. Officials from Moscow and Kyiv have met intermittently for peace talks that have so far failed to bring a cessation of hostilities. Geopolitical tensions are once again showing up in energy markets. Several European Union member states are pushing for a fifth round of sanctions on Russia. Cutting off Russian crude would theoretically take 4% to 5% of global supply off the market. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, under increasing pressure to ramp up its output, is calling on Western allies to do more to help counter attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis on critical oil infrastructure. Investors are also weighing a rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe stemming from an emerging variant. Izabella Kaminska, former editor of The Financial Times’ FT Alphaville blog and founder of The Blind Spot, joins Emil Kalinowski to discuss the latest geopolitical and financial headlines, with a focus on media and propaganda surrounding the war in Eastern Europe. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Jww8pv Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

22 Maalis 202241min

Brian Estes’ unwavering passion for Bitcoin is fueled by a much deeper motive that will change the way you think about the entire crypto space. In this discussion with fellow Bitcoin advocate Mark Yusko, Estes shines a light on why the cryptocurrency isn’t even close to realizing its full potential and outlines the four valuation methods he’s used to determine an estimation for Bitcoin’s value in 2029. The venture capitalist who invests heavily into companies offering blockchain solutions says we’re currently witnessing an era in which we’re “rebuilding what wasn’t built correctly the first time.” Our first visionary on the show shares his inspirational backstory and brings a fascinating understanding of Bitcoin to the table in what is quite simply the perfect start to this exciting series on the future of digital assets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

20 Maalis 202210min

Kyla Scanlon is a US-based independent content creator and curator with an expanding social media profile built on both short- and long-form TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube videos as well as extensive written work on her newsletter, her Substack, and her blog. Known for her ability to distill market moves and current events in an analytical but humorous way, she both informs and entertains her audience. Himself a content creator and curator, Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura talks to Kyla about the creative process, the challenges they face, and their respective visions for the future of financial education. In a conversation as sprawling as it is compelling, Weston and Kyla, who share mutual interest in empowering an ever-growing global audience of self-directed market participants, also discuss current events, “meme commodities,” central banks, and crypto. Thanks for watching! Subscribe to our channel now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/subscribe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Maalis 202242min

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullard was the only member of the Federal Open Market Committee to dissent from the decision to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. Bullard wanted 50 basis points, and he’d like to see a fed funds rate of 3% by the end of 2022, not the 1.75% of the central bank’s current forecast. Bullard and Fed Chair Jerome Powell do agree that the economy can handle monetary tightening. And the stock market, with the S&P 500 on the way to its best week since November 2020, seems to accept the Fed’s outlook on growth. But the bond market sees something different – that is, a slowdown. The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten, and the 10-year yield fell below the five-year rate for the first time since March 2020. Meanwhile, war in Eastern Europe continues to sow dysfunction, most obviously in commodity markets. Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Fed, inflation and growth, China and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and where markets go from here. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3tol3RY Be sure to grab your tickets to the Crypto Gathering here: https://www.realvision.com/cryptogathering Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Maalis 202240min

The Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is underway, with yesterday’s 25-basis-point increase to the fed funds target range the first of what’s now forecast to be a total of seven such moves in 2022. Chair Jerome Powell said during his post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting press conference that the Fed could finalize “quantitative tightening” plans as soon as the FOMC’s May meeting. The Fed expects inflation to come in at 4.3% in 2022 before it falls to 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. Policymakers adjusted downward their 2022 growth forecast, from 4.0% to 2.8%. U.S. equity indexes have responded positively to the Fed’s new hawkish stance. Market yields continue to climb, most notably the average 30-year mortgage rate. Volatility continues to be the primary characteristic of financial markets. Chinese stocks continued to rally on accommodative moves announced by government officials, but the nickel market remains an unsettled mess. The “Fed Guy,” Joseph Wang, a former trader on the central bank’s open markets desk, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the Fed’s decision, the means it will employ to combat inflation, its forecasts for both inflation and growth, and financial markets’ response. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3CNtwkF Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Maalis 202236min

Real Vision's latest Twitter Space was a smashing success. Real Vision's Raoul Pal, Elaine Ly, Weston Nakamura, and thousands of RV listeners including Bill Tai and more joined to voice their thoughts on everything happening across the globe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Maalis 202225min

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made it official this afternoon, raising the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 0.25% to 0.50%. The FOMC also boosted the interest on reserves rate and the reverse repo rate. In its statement announcing the decision, the FOMC noted with regard to the Russia-Ukraine war that “in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.” The Fed forecast year-end inflation of 4.3%, with a total of seven rate hikes through year's end. U.S equity indexes were mixed in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC announcement, as bond yields surged. Chinese stocks notched their biggest rally in 14 years, as President Xi Jinping’s government offered wide-ranging support for capital markets. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss the FOMC’s decision, the complex set of circumstances central bankers face, and China’s accommodative moves. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on The Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3iauaz6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Maalis 202245min