Richard Koo: How Excessive Corporate Debt Could Thwart Future Economic Growth

DB-Mar16,2021: Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share his thoughts on how the gyrations in the bond market are affecting risk assets. With the market leaning toward a more inflationary regime, Greer charts his way higher for equities as he sees growth pick up and a cyclical rotation out of tech and into natural resource stocks. Bennington and Greer briefly interpret today’s negative print in retail sales before moving on to the rise of non-fungible tokens, which they believe is creating a new form of value by allowing the authentication of digital art. Lastly, Greer shares his investment advice across all asset classes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Maalis 202133min

DB-Mar15,2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley interpret the day’s market news. Farley breaks down the bullish price action in U.S. airlines as TSA throughput picks up and Delta’s CEO hints at a brighter future. Harrison distills the market noise into three clear narratives: inflation vs. deflation, end of cycle vs. beginning of cycle, and institutional investors vs. retail investors. Harrison and Farley analyze the market impact of the stunning suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine in France, Italy, Germany, and many other European countries, and then they dive deeper into the plumbing of inflation breakevens, before remarking upon Tesla’s remarkable new names of its chief corporate officers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Maalis 202140min

Real Vision Live Replay: Segra Capital Management partner Arthur Hyde, CFA, and founder and portfolio manager Adam Rodman join Real Vision editor Max Wiethe to give an in-depth update on uranium. Hyde and Rodman provide a recap on the recent events in the sector and uranium's price movement, discuss why this is still a structurally undersupplied market, and share why interest in uranium is increasing. With the presence of COVID-19, they explain the risks that the pandemic poses to the uranium supply and that, despite these supply risks, the demand for nuclear power generation has remained resilient. They also dig into how existing and new nuclear energy will play a role in the secular global trend towards clean energy in light of China's, Japan's, and Korea's recent carbon neutrality pledges. Key Learnings: Hyde and Rodman explore how nuclear power is an underappreciated, yet critical player in the transition to clean energy, and the uranium sector only stands to benefit from this trend. Emphasizing that this transition will take years, they advise that investors should not be as preoccupied with uranium's price cycle—rather, it's more beneficial to focus on CapEx as a delayed CapEx cycle leads to sustained high prices in uranium. Recorded on 14 Dec , 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Maalis 20211h 5min

Eric Basmajian, founder and editor at EPB Macro Research, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy to break down his near-term outlook on the global economy as well his longer-term framework for macro investing. Basmajian notes that the growth rate in industrial output, the pick-up in demand for commodities, and a steepening yield curve indicate a growth pick-up. Alden and Basmajian explore the significance of the underperformance of banks (particularly regional ones) and energy relative to the S&P 500 and then dive head-first into more macro issues on a longer-term time horizon such as the interplay of debt, inflation, the dollar, interest rates, and the velocity of money. Recorded on January 26, 2021. Key learnings: The strength of cyclical economic momentum indicators, particularly in industrials, indicates growth will continue in the short-term. Within a longer-term time horizon, Basmajian believes that extreme debt levels incurred on corporate as well as government balance sheets will hamper growth, ultimately leading to deflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Maalis 20211h 8min

The Interview: Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial and Real Vision president Travis Kimmel discuss how bonds and gold perform during times of deflation and insolvency. After Kimmel shares his journey as an entrepreneur and a technologist to Real Vision’s president, he explains why he thinks insolvency poses a serious risk for the U.S. economy. He and Van Metre discuss why Treasury bonds perform so well during times of economic distress, comparing the performance of long Treasury bonds relative to the S&P 500, as well as to gold and gold miners. After Van Metre explains why he believes quantitative easing is, in fact, deflationary, Kimmel describes the "greatest trades" he sees on the horizon. Recorded on January 21, 2021. Key learnings: The repayment of debt destroys dollars, so the overhang of tremendous debt loads and obligations (rents, corporate borrowing, etc.) will prove deflationary. In this scenario, Kimmel and Van Metre think bonds offer a favorable risk/reward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Maalis 20211h 9min

DB-Mar12,2020.Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to make sense of a bond market trying to regain its footing and a wobbling equity market vulnerable to an ignited dollar. Raoul argues that inflation is probably on the horizon but insists that it will be temporary cyclical, not secular. Raoul estimates that the Federal Reserve’s pledge to target maximum employment – even if that means inflation runs hot – makes yield curve control a potential outcome. Lastly, Raoul and Ash discuss the rejuvenated crypto market with most coins trading at or above their all-time highs as well as the red-hot market of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which they argue empower artists and musicians by granting them perpetual claim on their work and have the potential to create a new mechanism of digital value. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Maalis 202141min

DB-Mar11,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, and Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to the Daily Briefing to analyze the ongoing gyrations in the U.S Treasurys market and how their future path will impact almost every asset class. Harrison notes the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time high, and Boockvar and Bianco consider the halting of the rotation trade. Boockvar explains that inflation expectations will continue to vex the bond market while Bianco argues that a 10 year rate above 3% would be a serious problem for leveraged institutions. They investigate the effect of yields on the U.S. dollar, and Boockvar and Bianco share their ideal asset allocation in this unique investment environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Maalis 202140min

DB-Mar10,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe analyze price action in U.S. equities as well as today’s print of the Consumer Price Index, which met but did not exceed expectations and indicates muted inflation. In the main segment, Jack speaks to Corey Hoffstein, co-founder and chief investment officer of Newfound Research. Using advanced quantitative modeling, Corey charts the rotation from growth to value stocks and notes how the underperformance of “momentum” investing is evidence of that very rotation. Corey investigates the claim that growth stocks are vulnerable to increases in interest rates, which he finds true but incomplete. Lastly, Hoffstein shares his view on the vulnerability of the Ark Innovation ETF ($ARKK) to bouts of reflation, looking at metrics such as implied correlation and implied volatility. Corey can be reached on Twitter at @choffstein. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Maalis 202137min