Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/41tyn6M. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he's spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th. This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world’s largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore on 18 to 19 September. 🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Timestamps: 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg 01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy 02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook 03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle 04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy 05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates 06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances 07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks 08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings 09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices 10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements 11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals 12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions 13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors 14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down 15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth 16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation 18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts 19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains 21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy 22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand 23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy 24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports 25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession 26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages 27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation 28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector 29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target 30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market 31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks 33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior 35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation 36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare 38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers 40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities 41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs 43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment 44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions 46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels 48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology 50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing 51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing 52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle 53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions 54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior 55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Daily Briefing - July 2, 2020 - Will The US Pay the Price for Reopening?

Daily Briefing - July 2, 2020 - Will The US Pay the Price for Reopening?

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison dive into the June jobs report and talk about how it fits into the overall picture of the US's economic recovery. They also explore the implications and future trajectory of the coronavirus's spread and its continuing impact on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Heinä 202031min

Daily Briefing - July 1, 2020 - Crypto Can Change the World

Daily Briefing - July 1, 2020 - Crypto Can Change the World

Editor Max Wiethe joins senior editor Ash Bennington to debrief Real Vision’s Crypto Gathering conference. Ash shares his insights from some of the panels he participated in and his recommended pieces of content for viewers if they didn’t have an opportunity to participate. Max and Ash also tee up the case for bitcoin and debate why and how the crypto space will have enduring relevance for years to come. In the intro, Nick Correa discusses the Fed’s Main Street Lending Program and its chilly reception by both lenders and borrowers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Heinä 202038min

Daily Briefing - June 30, 2020

Daily Briefing - June 30, 2020

Managing editor Ed Harrison joins Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading Group, to discuss how to evaluate markets from a technical perspective. Believing that it’s important to “follow the tape” and trade what an investor sees, Floyd shares where he believes bonds and the S&P are headed and how both technical and fundamental analysis inform each other in a market rocked by COVID-19. Harrison and Floyd also touch on distortions of market signals, volatility, currencies, and silver. In the intro, Nick Correa discusses the potential impact of the Payroll Protection Program on small businesses and how the spread of the virus in the US further hurts their chances of making it through the pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Kesä 202028min

Daily Briefing - June 29, 2020

Daily Briefing - June 29, 2020

Editor Max Wiethe joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Max and Ed examine how the US is currently dealing with the virus and whether that means the nation is par for the course or has “gone off the reservation” as compared to other countries. They also talk about the risk factors that could put a highly volatile market over the edge, consider the longevity of US outperformance, and explore the current market rotation. They wrap up their discussion by sharing their thoughts on the latest video on Real Vision Essential and announce a special edition of the Daily Briefing on Friday as the U.S. observes Independence Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

29 Kesä 202041min

The Interview - How Coronavirus Exposed the "Shaky Foundation"

The Interview - How Coronavirus Exposed the "Shaky Foundation"

What happens when an upheaval so massive forces financial markets, governments, and society to rethink how our systems work? Michael Krieger, author of the Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Real Vision to explain what coronavirus and the response to the outbreak has revealed about the condition of American systems – from financial markets to the health care system. Tracing the story of financial markets and societal trends over the past two decades, Krieger outlines how our systems have been pushed to the brink – focusing on emergency policy responses and the everything bubble. He also provides viewers with potential solutions to the systemic decay that has been brought to the forefront by the coronavirus outbreak. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Kesä 202046min

The Interview - Public Employee "Plunder" and California's Perfect Storm

The Interview - Public Employee "Plunder" and California's Perfect Storm

Steve Greenhut, Western region director at R Street Institute and author of "Plunder: How Public Employee Unions are Raiding Treasuries, Controlling Our Lives and Bankrupting the Nation," joins Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisers to discuss his coverage of the political paralysis that surrounds the issue of pensions in California. He guides Mike on a deep-dive into the gargantuan public employee compensation complex and how that complex bleeds into every other aspect of California government spending. He argues that public employees have forced state and local governments into a corner wherein they cannot maintain their obligations because of the massive burden of pension disbursements and employee compensation. Due to a lack of transparency, pension assumptions based on guesswork, and legal precedent overturning democratic decisions, Greenhut says that the perfect storm that will surely "surprise" Californian politicians has been plain to see for longer than a decade.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Kesä 202048min

Daily Briefing - June 26 ,2020

Daily Briefing - June 26 ,2020

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss a day of pain on Wall Street as the coronavirus shows no signs of relenting and the normally cautious Federal Reserve issued an alarming mandate to large-cap banks. Ed and Ash also flesh out their thinking on a potential "double-dip recession" and a second wave of coronavirus. In the intro, Jack Farley looks at COVID-19 data and analyzes the dire results from the Fed's "stress test" of the banking sector. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Kesä 202031min

Daily Briefing - June 25, 2020

Daily Briefing - June 25, 2020

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison break down the latest economic data amid a bullish day on Wall Street. They discuss the rising infections in states like Texas, Arizona, and Florida, and they take a data-driven look at the apparent stalling of the jobs recovery and the reversal of the durable goods slowdown. Ash looks at how peoples’ marginal propensity to spend is affecting the recovery, while Ed explores whether different asset classes are pricing in different recovery “shapes” (equities pricing in a V-shape, high-yield pricing in a Nike swoosh, and investment grade pricing in a “reverse radical”). In the intro, Nick Correa discusses what's happening in Texas and how the virus spread undetected for several weeks before the US locked down. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

25 Kesä 202046min

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