Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/41tyn6M. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he's spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th. This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world’s largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore on 18 to 19 September. 🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Timestamps: 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg 01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy 02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook 03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle 04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy 05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates 06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances 07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks 08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings 09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices 10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements 11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals 12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions 13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors 14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down 15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth 16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation 18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts 19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains 21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy 22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand 23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy 24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports 25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession 26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages 27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation 28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector 29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target 30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market 31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks 33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior 35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation 36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare 38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers 40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities 41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs 43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment 44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions 46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels 48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology 50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing 51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing 52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle 53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions 54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior 55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Daily Briefing - May 12, 2020

Daily Briefing - May 12, 2020

Real Vision's Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. They dive into the havoc wrecked on the jobs market, the continuously moving plans to reopen the US economy, and Dr. Fauci's warning today to the US senate. They also review what's happening in the Eurozone and which European economies may be a model for the US's own reopening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Touko 202034min

The Interview - The Fed's New Unwritten Mandate

The Interview - The Fed's New Unwritten Mandate

Professor Mark Blyth and Professor Adam Tooze explore how coronavirus is laying bare the hidden risks embedded within our financial systems and how central banks worldwide are scrambling to paper over those chasms of danger. To them, it seems that the Federal Reserve has rewritten its remit, and they discuss how rather than try and keep prices stable or keep unemployment low, the sole focus of the Fed right now seems to be supporting asset prices at any cost, even if that means bailing out leveraged entities who took on too much risk. They also discuss Europe and how this crisis is heightening the contradictions within the Eurozone and pushing the European banking system to the brink. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Touko 202053min

The Interview - An International Perspective on COVID-19

The Interview - An International Perspective on COVID-19

With every day of lockdown and every dollar of stimulus, policy and markets are becoming more and more intertwined. That is why Pedro da Costa has been conducting a series of interviews with central bankers, policymakers, and the economists who inform their views. Pedro continues this series with Dr. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Together they examine the efficacy of the current fiscal and monetary policy response and how this crisis is affecting globalization, emerging markets, and the state of the European Union.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Touko 202056min

Daily Briefing - May 11, 2020

Daily Briefing - May 11, 2020

Real Vision's Ash Bennington and Managing Editor Ed Harrison discuss Raoul's Expert View, "Global Recession - What's Next?", which was released today. Bennington and Harrison then take a deep dive into the real economy with a special focus on the risks posed by debt deflation. The pair also talk about the reopening of the global economy with an eye toward recent events in Germany. In the intro, Jack Farley looks at a dramatic new chapter in the WeWork saga. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Touko 202036min

Daily Briefing - May 8, 2020

Daily Briefing - May 8, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO Raoul Pal as they look forward to the biggest voyage Real Vision has ever gone on: Global Recession: What's Next? Over the course of this two-week content campaign, some of the brightest minds in finance will be sharing their views with you. Raoul and Ash also discuss the broad impact and context of the coronavirus crisis and look ahead to what we will learn in the coming weeks from economic data. In the intro, Jack Farley analyzes the unprecedented labor statistics and shares the story of one U.S. worker who lost his life on the job. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Touko 202037min

The Interview ( Bonus Episode ) - Another Great 'Mortgage Meltdown'

The Interview ( Bonus Episode ) - Another Great 'Mortgage Meltdown'

Columnist for HousingWire, Logan Mohtashami of AMC Lending Group sits down with Real Vision's Ash Bennington to discuss the "complete meltdown" he sees in the residential mortgage space during the coronavirus crisis. Mohtashami and Bennington discuss housing prices, the dynamics in the mortgage market in a time of crisis, and the overall lending environment. The pair also touch on the economics of US demography, commercial real estate, and the quantum shifts in retail property in commercial real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Touko 202056min

Daily Briefing - May 7, 2020

Daily Briefing - May 7, 2020

Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison is joined by Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and the coronavirus crisis. Harrison and Hirst examine the effects of central bank liquidity on asset markets. Real Vision’s Peter Cooper gives an overview of the Eurozone’s economic future, the challenges Italy faces next as they descend from the peak of the outbreak, and Norway’s central bank cutting rates to zero. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Touko 202035min

Daily Briefing - May 6, 2020

Daily Briefing - May 6, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Roger Hirst. Today, Bennington and Hirst explore the relationship between fundamental and technical analysis in the context of the Coronavirus crisis. The pair also discuss the role of the European Central Bank in light of the recent landmark decision by the German constitutional court. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Touko 202040min

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