Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks

Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks

Thomas Drechsel is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the political pressure on the Fed and the new ways to measure monetary policy shocks. Thomas and David also discuss fiscal and monetary dominance, the impact of political pressure on inflation, why we should care about central bank independence, and more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Thomas's website

Thomas's Twitter: @td_econ

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data* by Thomas Drechsel

*Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach* by S. Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel

*Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence* by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence Summers

*Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs* by Juan Antolin-Diaz and Juan Rubio-Ramirez

*Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Indentifcation with Twitter* by Francesco Bianchi, Thilo Kind, and Howard Kung

*A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:04:47) – Why Should We Care About Central Bank Independence?

(00:08:01) – Fiscal and Monetary Dominance

(00:12:41) – Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed

(00:27:14) – Breaking Down the Research Results

(00:36:46) – The Impact of Political Pressure on Inflation

(00:43:07) – Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: Background, Methodology, and Results

(00:59:45) – Outro

Jaksot(532)

Yair Listokin on the Convergence of Law and Macroeconomics

Yair Listokin on the Convergence of Law and Macroeconomics

Yair Listokin is a professor of law at Yale Law School and is the author of a new book titled, *Law and Macroeconomics*. He joins the show today to talk about the book as well as some of his new work. David and Yair also discuss sovereign wealth funds, the legal limits of central banks, and how to expand fiscal policy while making it more effective. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/04082019/law-and-macroeconomics Yair's Yale Law School profile: https://law.yale.edu/yair-listokin Related Links: *Law and Macroeconomics: Legal Remedies to Recessions* by Yair Listokin http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674976054 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

8 Huhti 201959min

Bryan Cutsinger on Seigniorage and the Monetary Economics of the Civil War

Bryan Cutsinger on Seigniorage and the Monetary Economics of the Civil War

Bryan Cutsinger is an economist affiliated with Angelo State as well as Texas Tech University and recently published an article titled *Seigniorage in the Civil War South*. He joins the show today to talk about this article, the monetary history of the Civil War, and the economics of Seigniorage. David and Bryan also discuss how both the North and the South financed the war and why the South made some counterintuitive decisions in how they conducted monetary policy. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03292019/civil-war-and-economics-seigniorage Bryan's website: https://www.bryancutsinger.com/ Bryan's George Mason profile: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/bcutsing Related Links: *Seigniorage in the Civil War South* by Bryan Cutsinger and Joshua Ingber https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014498318300470 *The Gold Standard as a Rule: An Essay in Exploration* by Michael Bordo and Finn Kydland https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014498385710194 *Financial Failure and Confederate Defeat* by Douglas Ball https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Failure-Confederate-Defeat-Douglas/dp/0252017552 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

1 Huhti 201958min

Paul Tucker on Central Bank Independence and *Unelected Power*

Paul Tucker on Central Bank Independence and *Unelected Power*

Paul Tucker is a 33-year veteran of the Bank of England where he served as both a member and deputy governor of the Monetary Policy Committee. Currently, Paul is a senior fellow at Harvard and a chair at the Systemic Risk Council. He has also recently authored a book, *Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State* and joins the show today to discuss talk about it. David and Paul also discuss central bank independence and justifications for the existence of a regulatory state as well as Paul's "principles for delegation" criteria. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03252019/paul-tucker-central-bank-independence-and-unelected-power Paul's website: http://paultucker.me/ Paul's Harvard University profile: https://ces.fas.harvard.edu/people/001970-paul-tucker Related Links: *Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State* by Paul Tucker https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11240.html David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Chapters: 00:00:00-Intro 00:00:22-Skip Intro 01:02:26-Outro

25 Maalis 20191h 2min

James Broughel on the Social Discount Rate

James Broughel on the Social Discount Rate

James Broughel is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center and an adjunct professor of law at George Mason University Law School. James specializes in state and federal regulatory procedures, cost-benefit analysis, and economic growth. He joins the show today to talk about a recent symposium he hosted on the social discount rate; what it is, its uses, and the controversy surrounding how to measure it. David and James also discuss cost-benefit analysis in the regulatory world and why the social discount rate matters for policy. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03182019/discounting-future James' Twitter: @JamesBroughel James' Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/james-broughel Related Links: *The Social Rate of Time Preference and the Social Discount Rate* by Mark Moore and Adam Vining https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/moore_and_vining_-_mercatus_research_-_a_social_rate_of_time_preference_approach_to_social_discount_rate_-_v1.pdf *The Appropriate Measure of the Social Discount Rate and Its Role in the Analysis of Policies with Long-Run Consequences* by David Burgess https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/burgess_-_mercatus_research_-_the_appropriate_measure_of_the_social_discount_rate_and_its_role_in_the_analysis_of_policies_with_long-run_consequences_-_v1.pdf *The Unsettled Matter of Discounting the Future* by James Broughel https://www.mercatus.org/publications/regulation/social-discount-rate/unsettled-matter-discounting-future *Equity or Efficiency? The Battle for the Soul of Benefit-Cost Analysis* by James Broughel https://www.mercatus.org/publications/regulatory-analysis/equity-or-efficiency-battle-soul-benefit-cost-analysis Amazon link to James' former band *Levy*: https://www.amazon.com/Levy/e/B001LHXCE2/ref=dp_byline_cont_music_1 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

18 Maalis 20191h

Ryan Avent on Hyperinflation and the Fed's New Dovish Direction

Ryan Avent on Hyperinflation and the Fed's New Dovish Direction

Ryan Avent is an economics columnist with The Economist magazine and is a previous guest of Macro Musings. He joins the show today to talk about some of his recent columns including work on hyperinflation, the Green New Deal, and Fed policy. David and Ryan also discuss the growing popularity of Modern Monetary Theory, the Fed's dovish change in direction, and why hyperinflation is so devastating to a nation's economy. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03112019/hyperinflation-and-mmt Ryan's Twitter: @ryanavent Ryan's Economist profile: http://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/ryan-avent/ Related Links: *Hyperinflations Can End Quickly, Given the Right Sort of Regime Change* by Ryan Avent https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/01/31/hyperinflations-can-end-quickly-given-the-right-sort-of-regime-change *Taking the Fed at its Word: Direct Estimation of Central Bank Objectives using Text Analytics* by Adam Shapiro & Daniel Wilson https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2019-02.pdf David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

11 Maalis 201955min

146 – Michael Strain on the Current State of the Economy, the Green New Deal, and Populism on the Left and Right

146 – Michael Strain on the Current State of the Economy, the Green New Deal, and Populism on the Left and Right

Michael Strain is the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Previously, Michael worked in the Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau and in the Macroeconomics Research Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He joins the show today to talk about recent developments in U.S. economic policy and some of his work on that topic. David and Michael also discuss the consequences of rising populism, MMT's impact on tax policy, and the issues Americans should be most worried about. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03042019/populism-mmt-and-billionaires Michael's Twitter: @MichaelRStrain Michael's AEI profile: https://www.aei.org/scholar/michael-r-strain/ Related Links: *Economic Shocks and Clinging* by Michael Strain and Stan Veuger https://ideas.repec.org/p/aei/rpaper/1004842.html *Wealth Inequality in the United States Since 1913: Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data* by Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/SaezZucman2014.pdf *Going to Extremes, Politics After Financial Crisis: 1870-2014* by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2688897 *Modern Monetary Theory is a Joke That's Not Funny* by Michael Strain https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-17/modern-monetary-theory-would-sink-u-s-in-debt David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

4 Maalis 20191h

145 – George Selgin on *Floored!*

145 – George Selgin on *Floored!*

George Selgin is the director of the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia, and a returning guest to show. For this special live episode, George joins Macro Musings to talk about his new book, *Floored: How a Misguided Fed Experiment Deepened and Prolonged the Great Recession.* David and George also discuss the liquidity coverage ratio, the Fed's transition from a corridor to a floor system, and the arguments for and against such an operating system. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02252019/floors-and-corridors George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin Related Links: *The Fed Marches On* by George Selgin https://www.alt-m.org/2019/01/31/the-fed-marches-on/ *Balance Sheet News* blog post by Stephen Williamson http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/2019/02/balance-sheet-news_21.html David Beckworth's Twitter thread on the Fed's decision to stick with a floor system: https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1098956723501576192 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

25 Helmi 20191h 13min

144 – Peter Stella on Debt, Safe Assets, and Central Bank Operations

144 – Peter Stella on Debt, Safe Assets, and Central Bank Operations

Peter Stella is the managing director of Stellar Consulting and was formerly an IMF official where he led the central banking and monetary and foreign exchange divisions. Peter has researched and written extensively on safe assets, collateral, and central banking operations, and he joins the show today to discuss this work. David and Peter also discuss the Fed's large scale asset purchases, money and payment systems in advanced economies, and why the U.S. Treasury should start issuing bills to the Fed. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02182019/peter-stella-debt-safe-assets-and-central-bank-operations Peter's Voxeu profile: https://voxeu.org/users/peterstella0 Peter's Research Gate archive: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Peter_Stella David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

18 Helmi 20191h 1min

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