What If The Fed Made a Mistake?

What If The Fed Made a Mistake?

Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework. Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8 Brent's Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11oct24/

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Jaksot(138)

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro P...

9 Elo 37min

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the...

31 Heinä 38min

The Orange Variable

The Orange Variable

Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how ...

10 Heinä 35min

The Rebasement Trade

The Rebasement Trade

Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?

26 Kesä 30min

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the...

22 Touko 37min

Process, Process, Process

Process, Process, Process

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent focus on va...

15 Touko 33min

Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World

Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis of new info: the Iran/US MoU ...

8 Touko 33min

New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What?

New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What?

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to approach rates, currencies and eq...

17 Huhti 37min

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