GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave

Today, Alan Dunne joins us for our weekly dose of Trend Following where we reflect on an eventful month of September and a good year for trend, so far. We discuss what causes trends and why we are starting to see bigger moves in markets in recent years, whether the economy will have a Soft, Hard or No landing and what impact it will have on market performance, why we might still be in a commodity super cycle and why commodities are linked to volume unlike financial assets. We also discuss what Alan has learned from his recent road trip, the unintended consequences of a Liability Driven Investment Strategy in the pension fund system, why what we saw this week in the UK may be the start of a "death" cycle according to one pension fund consultant and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:52 - Summary of the week08:34 - Industry performance update09:54 - Reflecting on the month of September14:38 - Why do we see trends in markets?24:12 - Soft, Hard or No landing?31:45 - Are we still in a commodity super cycle?40:39 - Key takeaways from Alan’s road trip48:46 - Article from Wall Street Journal on the UK Pension Fund debacle56:27 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics

1 Loka 202258min

Today, we welcome back Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, to help us understand the global energy crisis and how we ended up in this situation. We discuss the outlook of the coming months and why we are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle, how the supply and demand side of the economy functions and what role the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plays in a global energy crisis. We also discuss the different types of energy commodities, how convergence will affect the energy market and how to take advantage of it, the history of energy and the importance of ensuring a continuous abundance of efficient energy, how nuclear power can be a viable solution to the energy crisis and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:01 - Heading into the winter10:42 - Flood the market with oil...a good idea?14:50 - Understanding the supply side29:30 - Venezuela - A hot spot?33:21 - Is the SPR in trouble?40:12 - The role of the different energy commodities42:51 - Why convergence and how to take advantage of it51:56 - The end of energy abundance59:57 - Is nuclear the future?01:05:18 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS:...

28 Syys 20221h 6min

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins after an intense week for central banks and global markets. We discuss how the current situation affects us as Trend Followers and the potential systemic risks in the futures exchange community in case of a global financial reset event and how we can use what we learned during the pandemic to tackle the issues of liquidity. We also discuss the difference between CTAs and Trend Followers and why the big investment banks should support their trend following clients...instead of trying to front-run our signals. We debate the global fixed income markets and how central banks create the foundation of a global recession, how what we are experiencing now in terms for trendiness in the markets may just be the beginning, why people who have a need for closure don’t do well with uncertainty and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:23 - Key events from this week?11:15 - Industry performance update16:25 - Q1, Matthew: The potential risks for trend funds in a global reset event?25:18 - Research paper from UBS about CTAs and quant strategies39:55 - Digging into the global fixed income markets44:44 - Strong US Dollar and intervention in the Yen market49:29 - Is the panic yet to come?55:02 - Closure and dealing with uncertainty01:03:15 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

25 Syys 20221h 5min

Today, we are joined by Michael Howell, Author and Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, for a conversation on how liquidity drives financial markets, based on his book, “Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity”. We address term premia and the impact it has on the economy, the off-shore market, how Central Banks have become the dominant players over the last decade and the capital war between China and the U.S. We also discuss what might happen if the global economy becomes divided into two worlds, where one is financed by the U.S. dollar and the other financed by the Chinese Yuan and the increasing networking risk and risk of crises within the financial system, the different types of liquidity and the recipe for creating a strong dollar and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Michael on Linkedin and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:51 - Introduction to Michael Howell and his work07:38 - How much debt is there globally?14:08 - Why is longer-term treasuries desirable?16:08 - The off-shore market 19:56 - The capital war between China and the U.S.41:37 - Is the financial system more fragile than we think?50:10 - What if the 10-year...

21 Syys 20221h 10min

Rob Carver returns after his extended holiday and kicks off by taking a nostalgic look back to 1985 as the British Pounds this week hit the lowest level since that year, to reflect on how markets tend to go in cycles. We also address dynamic optimisation, whether it contributes to make more markets "tradable" and the use of "non-tradable" markets, how Rob uses correlation and clustering for his classification approach and his strategy allocating to Trend Following. Additionally, we discuss techniques for Trend Following on single stocks and determining distances in a continuous MA crossover system, strategies to increase the capacity of a Trend Following program and running multiple different systems together, and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:52 - Key takeaways from the week?15:35 - What does the future hold for interest rates and inflation?22:52 - Industry performance update25:52 - Q1, Joakim: Does dynamic optimisation in itself make more markets tradable?32:21 - Q1, Follow-up: About adding "non-tradable" markets35:39 - Q2, Kristen: Futures markets and Rob’s classification approach 43:15 - Q3, Kristoffer: How to treat CTAs? And deciding between allocating to investment-grade corporate bonds or high yield bonds49:46 - Q4, Elie: Book recommendations for relevant statistical concepts + why not build a trend following portfolio of single stocks which are optimized...

17 Syys 20221h 23min

Today, we are joined by Oded Galor, Professor of Economics at Brown University, for a conversation on how we can explore and uncover new ways of thinking about the economy, based on his book “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality”. We discuss inequality from a historical aspect and the roots of human behaviour, the Malthusian trap and how the industrial evolution has impacted humanity and how geography, culture and diversity is a key factor in achieving equality. We also address the costs and benefits of diversity within a society and how we need diversity to generate more growth and complex solutions, why China will be left behind due to a lack of cultural fluidity, the process of measuring diversity, how we can improve going forward and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Oded on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro04:00 - Introduction to Oded Galor07:29 - Fundamental insights from Galor’s book09:49 - From Stagnation to Growth21:22 - Education and the labour force30:24 - The impact of longer-term structural...

14 Syys 20221h 7min

Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we discuss why the crisis we experience at the moment might be worse than previous crises, such as what was experienced in the 1970’s. We also discuss the turtle trading method and how ATR can be used for entering and exiting trades, how Richard adjusts his trailing stop according to the price and level of volatility and why simplicity is the most robust solution to deal with complex markets. Additionally, we address how Trend Following can be used as a diversification tool for your portfolio, the principle of return stacking and how it is used in Trend Following, why more people are turning away from the 60/40 portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:26 - The stark warning from Niall Ferguson07:01 - What happened this week?10:35 - Industry performance update12:47 - Q1, Irwin: Turtle trading and the use of ATR for position sizing23:19 - The relationship between trailing stop and volatility32:45 - Simplicity and sticking to your model39:32 - Is the 60/40 portfolio outdated?53:31 - The principle of return stacking01:04:52 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to...

11 Syys 20221h 7min

Today, we are joined by Cameron Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, who has a really unique background. We address how she allocate and construct her portfolios in a highly unstable and inflationary environment and why she prefesr to play on the smaller side of funds. We also discuss the importance of valuations and how it can help forecast long term returns and how she analyzes earnings and liquidity to understand and navigate an uncertain macro environment, the outlook for inflation and how the Fed might act to combat the economic instability as well as their process of recruiting external managers. Lastly, we discuss how narratives impact the markets and the importance of knowing the source of your returns, how to approach long-term investment to avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom, as well as some sound advice for aspiring CIOs and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cameron on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:10 - Introduction to Cameron and her work at NewEdge Wealth08:01 - Navigating in a tough environment14:31 - Their approach to asset allocation21:31 - The historical perspective29:56 - Getting comfort in an uncertain macro environment41:20 - Is high inflation here to stay?48:33 - What it will take for the Fed to call victory?53:18 - Bottom-Up or...

7 Syys 20221h 15min