GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave

This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns’, and we explain the term ‘ergodicity’.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How to stay on the right side of the effects of compoundingHow many strategies can be limited by the make-up of their previous versionsThe profitable & negative correlation of Trend Following to equities when stocks are fallingThe need to zoom-out when judging performanceThe terms 'ergodicity' and 'path dependency'-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:37 – A Thank you to Shane, our website developer, for his great work in creating the new Top Traders Unplugged website. We hope you all enjoy the new user interface02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: <a href="https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

31 Loka 20211h 6min

Today Jason Buck is joined by Hari Krishnan in the first of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, why it can pay to avoid hedging when the crowd is already doing so, explaining the 'Put slingshot', how markets are different today from decades ago, protection against tail-risk, the psychology behind large markets sell-offs, and some thoughts on the effects of leverage on the markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The benefits of tail-risk hedges / adding volatility hedges to your portfolioThe importance of avoiding group think (in hedging)Some thoughts on what is known as the ‘Put slingshot’The new nature of stock market movementsThe repricing of risk during fast downturnsTail-risk protection versus Trend FollowingHow tail-risk protection can complement an existing allocation to Trend FollowingSome of the psychology and mechanisms behind large and sharp market movesHow positioning and leverage end up creating challenging markets to trade inFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.Follow Hari on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:59 - Why should somebody include volatility or tail risk into their portfolio?04:35 - Do you think rolling option puts is a good hedging strategy?07:47 - The tradeoffs between near-term and long-term option...

26 Loka 20211h 12min

This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The future of BitcoinHow money managers can explain their approaches simply to clientsLong, successful, but bumpy track records versus recent strong performersTrend Following's incredible success over 6 decadesThe private equity world compared with systematic investing-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:54 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:49 – Macro recap from Niels04:52 – Weekly review of performance12:33 – Why storylines and narratives matter52:42 – How effectively communicating what we do can be a challenge in any industry55:54...

23 Loka 20211h 19min

We’re joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The hardest questions in the Turtle Trading entrance examThe SECs' approval of the first-ever Bitcoin futures ETFHow the move toward sustainable investments is affecting current supply chainsOur best performing assets of the year so farHow Bitcoin compares to Gold and if this is a fair comparisonWhich timeframe of Trend Following is best suited for crypto -----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:25 - A huge thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts02:59 - Macro recap from Niels05:51 - Weekly review of returns11:00 - Niels: What’s been the year-to-date standout winner for you?12:40 - Niels: How much of your performance has come from crypto, compared to other non—classical Trend Following assets?24:45 - Niels: It takes money to money, true or false?29:45 - Niels: After a big profit, the next trend...

17 Loka 20211h 18min

Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We’ve posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry’s.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Favouring long or short positionsHow you can go broke taking small profitsReasons to ‘fade the fundamentals’The importance of down-time and vacationsWhether we can rely on opinions of the crowdSystem diversificationWhy you should trade smallThe questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test todayAvoiding trades due to gaps in price-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:10 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving your 5-star reviews in iTunes, and please share this podcast with a like-minded friend: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:19 -...

9 Loka 20211h 1min

Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recentlyHow to gauge a system's long-term effectivenessSpread betting in the UK as an alternative to futuresHow to raise AUM when starting a new firmThe US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coinAdding parameters to a system -----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes03:03 - Macro recap from Niels05:43 - Weekly review of returns12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system26:11...

3 Loka 20211h 4min

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returnsCompounding wealth as a systematic investorHow Trend Following can profit during good times and bad timesData distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus onHow investment terms can often create communication barriersEmbracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:25 – Macro recap from Niels04:10 – Weekly review of performance11:35 – Knowing what to look for in a talented investment...

25 Syys 20211h 8min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player.You can find Mark’s latest writings here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How people appeal more to investors than trading systems aloneHow to spot future star performers in advanceUnconventional approaches to market correlationsThe importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clientsWhy investors tend to copy their peersWhether fund size matters to capital allocatorsHow strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link...

18 Syys 20211h 30min