Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed's Upcoming Framework Review

Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed's Upcoming Framework Review

Tara Sinclair is a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University, where she also directs the George Washington Center for Economic Research. From 2022 to 2024, Tara also served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the US Department of Treasury. Tara joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time at Treasury, real-time economic analysis, the Fed framework review, and much more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Tara's Twitter: @TaraSinc

Tara's website

Tara's GWU profile

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 2024 RTE Conference

*Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 66th NABE Annual Meeting

*The Fed's Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser

*The Inflation Surge of the 2020s: The Role of Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Don Kohn

*Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market* by Michael Kiley

*Did the Federal Reserve's 2020 Policy Framework Limit Its Response to Inflation? Evidence and Implications for the Framework Review* by Christina Romer and David Romer

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:25) – Working as a Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Treasury Department

(00:06:31) – Building a Better Economic Database

(00:10:15) – Breaking Down Real-time Economics and Real-time Data

(00:16:06) – *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches*

(00:21:37) – Solving Our Current Data Challenges

(00:24:36) – *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch*

(00:32:08) – Breaking Down the Upcoming Fed Framework Review

(00:37:56) – Addressing the Concerns and Issues Surrounding the Fed's Framework

(00:42:50) – Unpacking the Dual Mandate and the Fed's Broad and Inclusive Goal

(00:53:45) – Could AI Define Maximum Employment in the Future?

(00:56:13) – Outro

Jaksot(532)

129 – Nick Bunker on the Economic Recovery, Unemployment Measurement, and the U.S. Labor Market

129 – Nick Bunker on the Economic Recovery, Unemployment Measurement, and the U.S. Labor Market

Nick Bunker is an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab where he focuses on the U.S. labor market and was previously a senior policy analyst at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, an economics think tank. Nick joins the show today to talk about the U.S. labor market and how the government measures unemployment. David and Nick also discuss the decreasing trend of male participation in the labor force, declining labor mobility, and the importance of a larger public database for labor data. Nick's Twitter: @nick_bunker Nick's Indeed profile: https://www.hiringlab.org/author/nbunker/ Related Links: *Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects* by Stephanie Aaronson et al. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Fall2014BPEA_Aaronson_et_al.pdf *The Long-Term Decline in Prime-Age Male Labor Force Participation* by the Council of Economic Advisers https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20160620_cea_primeage_male_lfp.pdf David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

22 Loka 20181h

128 – Robert Kaplan on the FOMC, the Dallas Fed, and Lessons from the Great Recession

128 – Robert Kaplan on the FOMC, the Dallas Fed, and Lessons from the Great Recession

Rob Kaplan is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Previously, he was a professor and associate dean at Harvard Business School and a vice chairman at Goldman Sachs. Rob joins the show today to talk about his career, the Dallas Fed, and U.S. monetary policy. David and Rob also discuss the inner workings of the FOMC, the future of the Fed's operating system, and lessons to be learned from the 2008 Financial Crisis. Rob also shares his thoughts on alternative monetary regimes, including nominal GDP targeting. Rob's Twitter: @RobSKaplan Rob's Dallas Fed profile: https://www.dallasfed.org/en/fed/bios/kaplan.aspx David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Transcript to this week's episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/robert-kaplan-fomc-dallas-fed-and-lessons-great-recession

15 Loka 201846min

127 – Jared Bernstein on Fiscal Reform, Trade, and the Financial Crisis

127 – Jared Bernstein on Fiscal Reform, Trade, and the Financial Crisis

Jared Bernstein is a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and previously served as chief economist and economic advisor to Vice President Joe Biden in the Obama Administration. Jared also writes regularly for the Washington Post. David and Jared discuss a wide range of topics including fiscal stimulus, the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, subsidized employment programs, Trump's trade agenda, and the direction of economic policy after the 2018 midterm elections. Jared's Twitter: @econjared Jared's Washington Post profile: https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/jared-bernstein/?utm_term=.23a83717b1c3 Related Links: *Populism and the Economics of Globalization* by Dani Rodrik https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/populism_and_the_economics_of_globalization.pdf *Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014* by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, & Christoph Trebesch https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/1115_eer_slides_sep2016_short.pdf *The New Rules of the Road: A Progressive Approach to Globalization* by Jared Bernstein and Lori Wallach http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/The-New-Rules-of-the-Road.pdf *Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World* by Adam Tooze https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/301357/crashed-by-adam-tooze/9780670024933/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

8 Loka 201846min

126 – Will Luther on Cash, "Supernotes," and Cryptocurrencies

126 – Will Luther on Cash, "Supernotes," and Cryptocurrencies

Will Luther is an assistant professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University and is the director of the Sound Money Project at the American Institute for Economic Research. Will is also an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins today to talk about a recent debate over the future of cash and the current state of cryptocurrencies. David and Will also discuss the implications of issuing "supernotes" (like $500 and $1000 bills), the existence of stable coins as cryptocurrencies, and opening up the Fed's balance sheet to the general public. Will's Twitter: @WilliamJLuther Will's website: http://www.wluther.com/ Related Links: *Cash, Crime, and Civil Liberties*, A collection of essays by J.P. Koning, Joshua Hendrickson, Will Luther, and James McAndrews https://www.cato-unbound.org/issues/august-2018/cash-crime-civil-liberties *Moneyness*, J.P. Koning's blog http://jpkoning.blogspot.com/ *The Stable Coin Myth* by Barry Eichengreen https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stable-coins-unviable-cryptocurrencies-by-barry-eichengreen-2018-09 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

1 Loka 201857min

125 – Sam Hammond on Co-Determination, Corporate Governance, and the Accountable Capitalism Act

125 – Sam Hammond on Co-Determination, Corporate Governance, and the Accountable Capitalism Act

Sam Hammond is a policy analyst and covers topics in poverty and welfare for the Niskanen Center. Sam is a previous guest on Macro Musings, and he joins the show today to talk about his new article in National Review which addresses Senator Elizabeth Warren's new proposal, the Accountable Capitalism Act, and its potentially negative effects. David and Sam also discuss the problematic stereotypes surrounding 'corporate bigness', the positive and negative features of co-determination, and why we need universal safety nets. Sam's Twitter: @hamandcheese Sam's Medium profile: https://medium.com/@hamandcheese Related Links: *Elizabeth Warren's Corporate Catastrophe* by Sam Hammond https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/08/elizabeth-warren-accountable-capitalism-act-terrible-idea/ *Big is Beautiful: Debunking the Myth of Small Business* by Robert Atkinson and Michael Lind https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/big-beautiful *Concentration in US Labor Markets: Evidence from Online Vacancy Data* by Ioana Marinescu, Marshall Steinbaum, Bledi Taska & Jose Azar https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3133344 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

24 Syys 201857min

124 – Brad Setser on Global Economic Imbalances and the Fed's Role as a Monetary Superpower

124 – Brad Setser on Global Economic Imbalances and the Fed's Role as a Monetary Superpower

Brad Setser is a senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations where he works on macroeconomics, global capital flows, and financial crises. Brad also served as a deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Treasury Department from 2011 to 2015 where he worked on Europe's financial crisis, currency policy, financial sanctions, commodity shocks, and Puerto Rico's debt crisis. Brad joins the show today to talk about global economic imbalances and why we should care about them. David and Brad also discuss emerging market tensions in Turkey, the implications of running current account deficits, and the economic dangers accompanying the existence of a monetary superpower. Brad's blog: https://www.cfr.org/blog/Setser Brad's Twitter: @Brad_Setser Related Links: *Putin's Unlikely Ally in His Standoff With the West: His Central Banker* by Anatoly Kurmanaev https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-unlikely-ally-in-his-standoff-with-the-west-his-central-banker-1534773380 *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, & Kenneth Rogoff http://www.nber.org/papers/w23134 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Want to get your hands on a signed copy of Tyler Cowen's new book Stubborn Attachments before it hits bookstores on October 16th? Rate and review your favorite Mercatus podcast, including Macro Musings, Conversations with Tyler, the Hayek Program Podcast, or the Mercatus Policy Download on Apple Podcasts and you'll be entered to win: get.mercatus.org/podcastcontest/

17 Syys 20181h 5min

123 – Adam Posen on Trade, Inflation Targeting, and Central Bank Independence

123 – Adam Posen on Trade, Inflation Targeting, and Central Bank Independence

Adam Posen is the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and was formerly senior fellow at the Bank of England, helping set monetary policy between 2009 and 2012. Adam has also worked at the New York Federal Reserve, has advised many central banks and governments, and is an accomplished scholar in the field of macroeconomics. He joins the show today to discuss some of his research as well as the work of the Peterson Institute. David and Adam also discuss central bank independence, trade policy under the Trump regime, and the differences between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Adam's Twitter: @AdamPosen Adam's Peterson Institute profile: https://piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/adam-s-posen Related Links: *Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience* by Ben Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic Mishkin, & Adam Posen https://press.princeton.edu/titles/6380.html *The Post-American World Economy: Globalization in the Trump Era* by Adam Posen https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2018-02-13/post-american-world-economy David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

10 Syys 20181h

122 – Sebastian Edwards on FDR, Gold, and the Great Depression

122 – Sebastian Edwards on FDR, Gold, and the Great Depression

Sebastian Edwards is a professor of economics at UCLA, and is a former chief economist for the World Bank. He joins the show today to talk about his new book, *American Default: The Untold Story of FDR, the Supreme Court, and A Battle over Gold*. Sebastian and David also discuss Roosevelt's plan to ease the U.S. off the gold standard, his attempts to fix the banking sector, and the details and implications of the Gold Clause Cases. Sebastian's UCLA profile: http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/sebastian.edwards/ Sebastian's NBER archive: http://www.nber.org/people/sebastian_edwards Related Links: *American Default: The Untold Story of FDR, the Supreme Court, and A Battle over Gold* by Sebastian Edwards https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11230.html David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

3 Syys 20181h 1min

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